CAPE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope. I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best. PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole. Nothing else was able to turn the trick. If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today. I will happily be wrong. Prior to today's 12z run(which ji seemed to suddenly approve of lol), the EPS was showing incremental improvement in the Pacific. PNA has been trending towards neutral. Aligns with the latest MJO forecasts, taking the MC wave into the COD after briefly moving into phase 6. Should it reemerge, it looks like it would be in 7,8. or 1. In contrast, GEFS has been taking a high amplitude wave into phase 6. I guess what I am saying is, there are signs of a less hostile PAC, particularly on the EPS. Absolutely want the HL blocking, but hopefully it wont have to be the sole savior for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope. I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best. PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole. Nothing else was able to turn the trick. If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today. I will happily be wrong. Yes but with the caveat that the pac ridge locked in for more than a short period. That feature is really starting to rage now but if the eps is right and it starts to wane in 12 days or so that takes us out of dire straights territory. If the eps long range is correct the January monthly mean won’t look like the bad composites as much. But if the pac ridge stays dominant then yes we would need blocking to offset. There are no good looks with a strong central pac ridge and a +AO/NAO Its still way out there though. And we would be better with blocking. The gradient pattern the cfs and eps is advertising can easily end up with most of the snow to our northwest if we don’t get lucky. Hate to say it but that look isn’t so good for your area. You would likely need more help. But it’s still a way better look than the raging pac ridge western trough combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Well, let's look at the bright side: Hopefully this January won't be as tropical as January 2006. Or January 1950. Or, worst yet, January 1932. I've read somewhere that mosquitoes were swarming in January 1932! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hate to say it but that look isn’t so good for your area. You would likely need more help. Yeah, I'm a realist about my climo. Although I love snow, I will happily take mild/wet/cold/dry cycles as opposed to endless SER warmth. I could even hope for nice little- EPO cold snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes but with the caveat that the pac ridge locked in for more than a short period. Yes I misunderstood this caveat. I was under the impression that you had found that once the Pacific Doom Blob came to play it, always stayed long term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: If you compare this pic from C.A.P.E with the same time stamp from Pivotal (posted by SteveRDU in the SE forum), you can really see the effect of the sites' different algorithms for snow accumulation. I live just slightly southwest of the "9.8" in eastern NC. WeatherBell shows me with zilch, Pivotal shows me with 7 inches. Even setting aside the long-lead clown map aspect of both of them without knowing anything else, I can tell you that WeatherBell is much more realistic (or rather less unrealistic). Makes me wonder how Pivotal could have such crappy algorithms or how they could be that different from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Yes I misunderstood this caveat. I was under the impression that you had found that once the Pacific Doom Blob came to play it, always stayed long term. Depends what you consider “long term”. Most of the top analogs did lock in a long time. But there is no way I could pour through every week of every winter. I did look at every January. But a 10 day period can be masked within the monthly mean. But if the pattern locks in enough to show strongly on the monthly composite then no...all those examples it took blocking. Then there is this...since others have mentioned 1993 There are some significant differences in the pac near Hawaii and the location of the ridge so it didn’t show up as an analog but it’s similar in some ways. That year improved without blocking. But the snowy February was NW of the mid atl cities. And the one March storm was a crazy anomaly. A repeat of that pattern would be better but might not really make DC people happy. But it did get more of a trough in the east without blocking. But it wasn’t as good a match. So there is the issue of degrees. What is better? What is a good enough analog to include in the dataset. But a few things are clear from the analogs. 1. It’s a bad pattern. 2. It can last a long time (not always but it can) 3. If it locks in long enough to dominate a monthly mean it’s very likely to continue. 4. If it does without blocking were toast. That is all true but it leaves escape hatches. Maybe the pattern only lasts 10-15 days. If the pac ridge weakens or shifts into an epo ridge that opens non blocking options that might have not shown up. Or maybe we get blocking later in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Models suggest we get winter after MLK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 46 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Models suggest we get winter after MLK. EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw. Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 @Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yea 00z gefs showed signs of weakening and splitting pv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 @Ralph Wiggum not sure about the decade but 0z EPS was basically a carbon copy of 12z. As already noted, gefs is slowly caving. 2 more good runs and we can start relaxing a little. Relaxing in the 60s and maybe 70s... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ralph Wiggum not sure about the decade but 0z EPS was basically a carbon copy of 12z. As already noted, gefs is slowly caving. 2 more good runs and we can start relaxing a little. Relaxing in the 60s and maybe 70s... Gonna do some yard work in shorts this weekend. Thinking about running a tank of fuel and seafoam carb cleaner thru the snowblower. Ya know, get it ready and all. That should certainly not jinx anything moving forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I love how quiet it gets in here when we actually have a legit snow event underway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 33 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: I love how quiet it gets in here when we actually have a legit snow event underway. Not all of us, It’s raining in some places here, so the rest of us are somewhere isolated crying out eyes out... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 gfs looked good at the end of the run...a big tall ridge poking into eastern alaska allowing cold air to come south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: gfs looked good at the end of the run...a big tall ridge poking into eastern alaska allowing cold air to come south Stupid GEFS reverted back to the trough west/ridge east. The difference between the GEFS and EPS is quite large right now. Even with the crappy looks late, there a # of solutions with snowfall including some real storms. Back in Dec when a good pattern showed up d10-15 there were hardly any storms on the ens but not the case right now. I'll just keep huggin the EPS. It's busy d10-15 and hopefully we are too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Stupid GEFS reverted back to the trough west/ridge east. The difference between the GEFS and EPS is quite large right now. Even with the crappy looks late, there a # of solutions with snowfall including some real storms. Back in Dec when a good pattern showed up d10-15 there were hardly any storms on the ens but not the case right now. I'll just keep huggin the EPS. It's busy d10-15 and hopefully we are too. The GEFS is even stronger into Phase 5/6 than the euro, but worse it starts to loop the wave back through warm phases with high amplitude in the long range. The euro simply kills the wave and lets "other factors" take the wheel. If the GEFS is actually right and the MJO stays in high amplitude and does a loopty loop in phases 4-6 were screwed. Lucky the GEFS been getting schooled by the EPS for a while now. Of course with our luck this will be the time the GEFS nails it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The GEFS is even stronger into Phase 5/6 than the euro, but worse it starts to loop the wave back through warm phases with high amplitude in the long range. The euro simply kills the wave and lets "other factors" take the wheel. If the GEFS is actually right and the MJO stays in high amplitude and does a loopty loop in phases 4-6 were screwed. Lucky the GEFS been getting schooled by the EPS for a while now. Of course with our luck this will be the time the GEFS nails it. Dang...So right now it's basically a model war for determining the fate of the winter? Whoa boy...gonna be a long 10-15 days, lol (but at least we'll finally know something by then...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Stupid GEFS reverted back to the trough west/ridge east. The difference between the GEFS and EPS is quite large right now. Even with the crappy looks late, there a # of solutions with snowfall including some real storms. Back in Dec when a good pattern showed up d10-15 there were hardly any storms on the ens but not the case right now. I'll just keep huggin the EPS. It's busy d10-15 and hopefully we are too. I would also think it makes sense to weight the EPS more heavily since the GEFS has already blinked, and EPS seems to be holding steady atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Stupid GEFS reverted back to the trough west/ridge east. The difference between the GEFS and EPS is quite large right now. Even with the crappy looks late, there a # of solutions with snowfall including some real storms. Back in Dec when a good pattern showed up d10-15 there were hardly any storms on the ens but not the case right now. I'll just keep huggin the EPS. It's busy d10-15 and hopefully we are too. Positive takeaway is that the LR consensus is now bouncing around, which we know implies potential change. Scandy ridging seems to be showing up more consistently, which implies a change upstairs. PSU's concern sure is a valid one, but as he and some of us have stated for a few weeks, there are multiple indices to consider in the LR guidance, so worrying about 1 (albeit a potentially big one) still doesnt mean we can't overcome so long as other players show up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: right now it's basically a model war for determining the fate of the winter? Today's GEPS looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, frd said: Today's GEPS looks better. Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong. EPS not budging. If anything, it appears to achieve a more favorable outcome quicker. Buy your tickets now, EPS versus the GEFS . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong. I'm not sure where we would go from the end of the 12z EPS but there was nice uptick in legit storms between the 18-21st. Another solid run in the books. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure where we would go from the end of the 12z EPS but there was nice uptick in legit storms between the 18-21st. Another solid run in the books. I will enjoy the weekend weather the Euro has spoken about if the EPS is correct about that time period of interest in a decent winter storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro holds off the rain for after the Ravens game. GFS brings it in for the game. Go Euro! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, Mersky said: i was getting worried. It's almost 3pm and you hadn't made a post with the words ' we're screwed ' in it. I feel better now. Know your climo, we spend 90% of our winter periods in “screwed”. It’s what we do best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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