nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Other than the mountains out west how much snow has anyone in the PAC NW gotten. I have tons of friends in Seattle and Portland and they don't have squat Also, that dude that used to live here, @snownut I think, and lives out there now, posted a few days ago that he was having a cruddy year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think the good pattern for them has started yet This...we have been in a pac puke pattern from an AK vortex. That isn’t good for the pac NW either. It’s also not good for us. Right now we are in a temporary flux between patterns and that’s why we have a shot as a minor snowfall tomorrow. But the coming pattern is good for the west bad for us. But the pac coast needs an anomaly to get snow even in a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Got Alaska and Greenland warm too along with us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Also, that dude that used to live here, @snownut I think, and lives out there now, posted a few days ago that he was having a cruddy year. Certainly below normal snowpack in the Cascades except the very high peaks. (over 8000' ) I have had 13-1/2" at my house this season. Ironically it snowed and covered the grassy areas on September 28 and again on September 30th. Nice storm on Thanksgiving day. December was total crap with just a few dustings. Had squalls cover the ground yesterday and again this morning. Looks like several snow chances here over the next 10 days. Mountains had a good weekend and a lots of snow this week above 4500' . So looks like a big turn around. Last winter came late with a very cold Feb March and several heavy snow storms. Biggest issue out here are temps and elevation. I am at 3,800' "typical" snow line is 5,500' which is only 9 miles west of me. Blogger I follow posted this: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/01/massive-snowfall-and-heavy.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 GEFS remains an outlier down the line. I figured the 12z GEPS would shift towards the GEFS but the spread between the ens widened. This goes along with my thoughts as to where I think we're going this month. Maybe the GEPS/EPS are too fast in shuffling things around but this is encouraging. Not a great pattern but def more wintry than the next 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Seems more like a Hadley cell problem than a pattern reloading problem or bad Atlantic. In the end it's bad to chase ghosts especially when the timescales are so massive. You would be here in perpetuity constantly doubting your sanity. Feel free to call up David Keith or give him a tweet. Maybe he can help you or maybe it's out of his reach too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS remains an outlier down the line. I figured the 12z GEPS would shift towards the GEFS but the spread between the ens widened. This goes along with my thoughts as to where I think we're going this month. Maybe the GEPS/EPS are too fast in shuffling things around but this is encouraging. Not a great pattern but def more wintry than the next 10 days. That’s the best look we’ve seen. 12z Gefs is hot garbage. No way to spin it it’s at least 10 days away from good at day 16 and not even heading the right way. The geps is an ok pattern. Problem with the eps last night it had too much trough near AK. With the pac ridge. AK trough and no block it would transition us right back into a pac puke pattern. We would trade a SE ridge for pac puke zonal pattern. No thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s the best look we’ve seen. 12z Gefs is hot garbage. No way to spin it it’s at least 10 days away from good at day 16 and not even heading the right way. The geps is an ok pattern. Problem with the eps last night it had too much trough near AK. With the pac ridge. AK trough and no block it would transition us right back into a pac puke pattern. We would trade a SE ridge for pac puke zonal pattern. No thanks. we are still stuck on a treadmill...its been 4 days since we tried to find the golden road to get out of it and i dont feel like we are making any progress. Nothing is really moving in our favor interms of AO, NAO...maybe slight movement of the PNA but its nothing that is getting me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: we are still stuck on a treadmill...its been 4 days since we tried to find the golden road to get out of it and i dont feel like we are making any progress. Nothing is really moving in our favor interms of AO, NAO...maybe slight movement of the PNA but its nothing that is getting me excited I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: we are still stuck on a treadmill...its been 4 days since we tried to find the golden road to get out of it and i dont feel like we are making any progress. Nothing is really moving in our favor interms of AO, NAO...maybe slight movement of the PNA but its nothing that is getting me excited Check back in 4 weeks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Check back in 4 weeks!With my sunglasses because that is sun angle preseason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Check back in 4 weeks! With my sunglasses because that is sun angle preseason Before you check out for 4 weeks. Check out the EPS d10-15. Very nice shift with the longwave pattern and a nice uptick in legit storms down the line. Very good run and speeds up getting rid of the SE ridge/western trough. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either. Sounds like you think the GEFS is right then and that's fine. But there is no doubt a model war going on with the consensus (GEPS/EPS) leaning towards knocking down the SE ridge and getting rid of the western trough inside of 2 weeks. There is reason to doubt a "treadmill" of SER/-PNA for weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Before you check out for 4 weeks. Check out the EPS d10-15. Very nice shift with the longwave pattern and a nice uptick is legit storms down the line. Very good run and speeds up getting rid of the SE ridge/western trough. Yeah, the Pacific red blob of death is muted. Still a ++AO but better overall look for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 best run of EPS in day..trough in east...im back in...till 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, Ji said: best run of EPS in day..trough in east...im back in...till 00z EPS has been picking up a window in the 17th-20th range for a few days. 12z is the best run yet. You can't expect any type of majority or consensus d10+. There's enough decent storms under the hood this run and not just nickle/dimes to be encouraged for 12 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Before you check out for 4 weeks. Check out the EPS d10-15. Very nice shift with the longwave pattern and a nice uptick is legit storms down the line. Very good run and speeds up getting rid of the SE ridge/western trough. Dude it almost worked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dude it almost worked. Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes. We take nickles and dimes and run. We're in the food stamp line Chill. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Sounds like you think the GEFS is right then and that's fine. But there is no doubt a model war going on with the consensus (GEPS/EPS) leaning towards knocking down the SE ridge and getting rid of the western trough inside of 2 weeks. There is reason to doubt a "treadmill" of SER/-PNA for weeks on end. Honestly, I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Honestly, I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something. EPS could be too fast or it could be seeing things more clearly. We had a couple days of good/bad run over run recently but the last 3 runs have been pretty promising honestly. And the trend has been for the better. I do know this is by FAR the busiest D10-15 meteogram for my yard all winter. There's not even a close second because much of the d10-15 has been void of anything good irt snowfall all winter. I'll just hug this for now: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 There are 2 things the EPS is trending towards that can salvage a portion of Jan. 1) is the progression of reducing the nasty -PNA/Aleutian ridge. That has been speeding up with the GEPS/EPS and the GEFS is being stubborn. 2) is the scand ridge pushing into Greenland. That's compressing heights to our NE in the Atl and creating confluence and lower heights in our area. This is very important. If the EPS is totally wrong about the scand ridge then we're still facing some SER issues and we'll need the trough axis (assuming there even is one) in a perfect location. Here's the run over run h5 comparison. Looking better in the right places. Still a hurry up and wait situation though. lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline. According to Eric Webb courtesy 33andrain he states this : "The GEFS & EPS couldn't be more different after 300 hours in the North Pacific & North America. Subtle changes in the North Pacific storm track are mostly to blame as the GEPS which shows basically the same MJO forecast as the GEFS but produces a more similar height configuration to the EPS." Meanwhile some interesting thoughts by Webb and Paul Roundy regarding the GEPS and the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes. It was a good run. Ejected the vortex away from AK which was my main gripe with 0z and built ridging into epo. First legit good run in a while. I was just kidding about Ji taking a 4 week hiatus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was a good run. Ejected the vortex away from AK which was my main gripe with 0z and built ridging into epo. First legit good run in a while. I was just kidding about Ji taking a 4 week hiatus. One thing that has bugged me since beginning of Dec is even when d10-15 showed a nice mean h5 setup there was always very few good snow solutions in the mix. I know snowmaps are flawed but they help tell a story under the hood. 12z eps is encouraging for that. Not only is the mean h5 ok but the ens are always showing an unusually high # of solutions that include snowfall considering the lead time. Best run of met winter and that's indisputable 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up... 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up... I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope. I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best. PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole. Nothing else was able to turn the trick. If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today. I will happily be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 19 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope. I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best. PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole. Nothing else was able to turn the trick. If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today. I will happily be wrong. I think you're missing the caveat that PSU was talking about the -NAO being mandatory to counteract the -PNA and huge central PAC ridge if they remained locked in place. However, get the pig ridge out of the way and then there are other paths to success that don't mandate a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now