January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS look nothing like the op. Better look early in the EPO region maybe into the AO then goes right back to PAC ridge vomit west coast trof se ridge

It’s not based on the FV-3 GFS as I learned today...toss it!

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s not based on the FV-3 GFS as I learned today...toss it!

At least it's on its own now. EPS/GEPS combo looks quite a bit different and have been slowly improving each run. I'll toss the gefs until one of the others start to agree

[cbmclean]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

NA is our acronym for North America. Full latitude trough. Get that neg tilt and close off on the way north and it's fireworks for someone. It was just an interesting panel. Total fantasyland stuff though

Whoops: neophyte mistake.

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At least it's on its own now. EPS/GEPS combo looks quite a bit different and have been slowly improving each run. I'll toss the gefs until one of the others start to agree

Watch this be the time where the GEFS gets its revenge and crushes the EPS.

[stormtracker]

SE Ridge on the modeling 120+ hours is the turd in the punchbowl.  You hate to see it.

[Weather Will]

Overnight EPS still seems to be showing a chance for snowiness In the 18th-20th period in our sea of warmth.

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 hours ago, Albedoman said:

wow- overperformer in Lehigh Valley PA  right now --1 inch of snow on the ground with moderate snow falling

There’s an obs thread.

Theres a Pa forum.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like overnight GEPS that we were hopeful would continue the positive trends started caving to the GEFS. Pac ridge never fades, broad SE ridge trying to team up with the WAR, little help up top. However, the GEFS has some weak ridging into the NAO down the road but now we are pinning our hopes, IF that is even correct, into the last week of January. MJO emerging high amp 4/5 then quickly dying in 6 before returning to the COD. The cycle is on wash, rinse, repeat for now. I think it is becoming clear we are not going to get a favorable sustained pattern this season....maybe towards the tail end. We are likely going to have to work with brief windows during peak climo. Anyone feel like dissecting the EPS?

[PDIII]

I realized this morning that the pattern lines up well with the Raven's road to the Superbowl.  It looks to me that it will hold for the AFC championship game (knock on wood) and Baltimore might enjoy Indian summer conditions for the divisional round!.  Lamar's has had troubles in the past with adverse weather conditions..  so for me this is the silver lining.  

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, PDIII said:

I realized this morning that the pattern lines up well with the Raven's road to the Superbowl.  It looks to me that it will hold for the AFC championship game (knock on wood) and Baltimore might enjoy Indian summer conditions for the divisional round!.  Lamar's has had troubles in the past with adverse weather conditions..  so for me this is the silver lining.  

Yes but keep that rain away for Saturday. Right now the system maybe looks slow enough for rain to hold off 

[CAPE]

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.

[Ji]

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.

If -ao is our best indicie for snow....

[frd]

42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.

Hope the EPS has a clue,  because other modeling is not so great, and any improvement towards fantasy land seems to reverse course and goes back to crap. 

Remarkable consensus on a + 4 or even higher AO soon . And a forever - PNA as far as the eye can see. So then, with Jan written off, next up is Feb. 

There was a post Webb made over in 33 yesterday describing a blend of several good winters  centered on Feb. that I believe he is associating with the Feb Euro seasonal.    I am fine with his ideas but we need to see some changes to show up soon if that were going to be the outcome.  

As for the PNA ..... some thought we have a +PNA  average during Jan and Feb, but not looking good at all.  I can't  overstate how important I feel having some sort of +PNA  and or - AO is to our region.   

From Don S. - here is a segment of his update regarding some PNA stats :  

<

Despite 500 mb differences in the extended range, there remains strong consensus between the EPS and GEFS that the PNA will remain negative to strongly negative past mid-month. Such a scenario would lead to a continuation of a generally mild pattern beyond mid-month. Transient cold shots would be possible.

A PNA- typically translates in warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic region. For the January 16-31, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City and Philadelphia was 32.2° and 32.1° respectively. When the PNA was negative, those values were 34.2° and 34.1° respectively. The coldest mean temperatures for PNA- periods occurred when the EPO and AO were both negative (New York City: 29.1° and Philadelphia: 28.9°). The warmest occurred when the EPO and AO were both positive (New York City: 37.9° and Philadelphia: 37.5°).

>

 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.
 

If -ao is our best indicie for snow....

PV becomes elongated in the LR on the GEFS, and maybe the building upper ridge near Scandinavia can further perturb it.

QBO continues to drop and that should correlate to a weaker PV. We shall see.

 

[frd]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

PV becomes elongated in the LR on the GEFS, and maybe the building upper ridge near Scandinavia can further perturb it.

QBO continues to drop and that should correlate to a weaker PV. We shall see.

 

 

Within the realm of random chaos I wonder if we do get an unexpected and sudden pattern  change, because that is what the Euro Seasonal implies or do we stay the course discussed by psu because the players are stable. Even though psu did mention there are various options on the table. 

Some who follow the strat and the HL would think improvement arrives but the process is a very slow one. 

   

 

[Ji]

 
Within the realm of random chaos I wonder if we do get an unexpected and sudden pattern  change, because that is what the Euro Seasonal implies or do we stay the course discussed by psu because the players are stable. Even though psu did mention there are various options on the table. 
Some who follow the strat and the HL would think improvement arrives but the process is a very slow one. 
   
 

I think the more extreme the players are...the better a chance for change. Hopeful anyway

[wkd]

What is a full latutude trough? Does it have to cover a minimum number of degrees to fall in that category? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.

If this takes us up to the last week of January and these stubborn pattern changes are usually rushed too quickly on the models, then we are in trouble. We are nearing a point rather quickly where incremental changes at the end of an ens means arent going to cut it. We need to start seeing better signs of an overall pattern regime flip. Give it another 10 days. If things are still doing the 1 step forward 1 step back thing, it's time. I know people dont want to hear it but I'm pretty sure I am just putting in writing what Bob, PSU, and some others are thinking in the back of their minds. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

20 minutes ago, wkd said:

What is a full latutude trough? Does it have to cover a minimum number of degrees to fall in that category? 

I’d say it’s anything from the arctic to or below us. Just my thinking. Others might weigh in with what they mean.

[Ralph Wiggum]

51 minutes ago, wkd said:

What is a full latutude trough? Does it have to cover a minimum number of degrees to fall in that category? 

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico"

source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

If this takes us up to the last week of January and these stubborn pattern changes are usually rushed too quickly on the models, then we are in trouble. We are nearing a point rather quickly where incremental changes at the end of an ens means arent going to cut it. We need to start seeing better signs of an overall pattern regime flip. Give it another 10 days. If things are still doing the 1 step forward 1 step back thing, it's time. I know people dont want to hear it but I'm pretty sure I am just putting in writing what Bob, PSU, and some others are thinking in the back of their minds. 

I have flat out said it so people can hate on me if they want...but if we get to Jan 15 or so and we are still looking at what we are looking at now...then yea I agree with that.  I showed how this currently pattern in January...more than 50% of the time can persist all winter.  But the minority of years where this pattern in January did flip better in February the signs of that were showing up well before February.   In all of those examples by the last week of January the pattern was in transition.  If we get to the point where we can see to February and it still looks like utter crap with a central pac ridge and +AO we are entering territory where no previous example turned out good.  We aren't there YET... still another 10 days or so to see real improvements before we are to that point, but the clock is ticking.  

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico"

source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html

I use the term as a basic adjective and not inside of a technical box. Any trough that touches the arctic circle and gulf of mexico is a full latitude trough in my brain. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.

I know you aren't saying its "good" just better...but my fear with that look is that even if we got a colder shot as the trough slides east...with that look in the PAC, along with the EPO/AO/NAO it would be extremely short lived and unlikely to include much snow.  IMO that pattern rolled forward the CONUS is about to get blasted by pacific air again like before xmas.  What is left of the western trough would roll through and then we would go zonal.  A week after that pot I would suspect we would see a big blue ball up top and a ring or red around it across the mid latitudes.  Very 2002 like...that is how that year evolved.  We are seeing a singular point in time at day 15 which looks "better" but I don't think that look is heading anywhere positive for snow opportunities.  Maybe "better" than the absolutely worst look imaginable we will be in for about a week before that...but if we were in anything close to a decent pattern now looking at that in the long ranges we would be pretty upset about that look.  

ETA:  ironically even though the GFS looks like a hot mess on wheels at day 16, its evolving the pattern in a direction that at least has a fraction more hope/possibility beyond that time period.  

[frd]

 

This from October 2019 , so basically 3 months have passed , note all  4 models indicate  +NAO for the period DJF. Guess what so anfar it is correct. 

I believe HM a couple months ago thought there would indeed be intervals of at least some -NAO., so far nada... 

I would guess if we get one maybe it would be March.  Would it be beneficial is hard to say, unless it falls into the mold of 2018. 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know you aren't saying its "good" just better...but my fear with that look is that even if we got a colder shot as the trough slides east...with that look in the PAC, along with the EPO/AO/NAO it would be extremely short lived and unlikely to include much snow.  IMO that pattern rolled forward the CONUS is about to get blasted by pacific air again like before xmas.  What is left of the western trough would roll through and then we would go zonal.  A week after that pot I would suspect we would see a big blue ball up top and a ring or red around it across the mid latitudes.  Very 2002 like...that is how that year evolved.  We are seeing a singular point in time at day 15 which looks "better" but I don't think that look is heading anywhere positive for snow opportunities.  Maybe "better" than the absolutely worst look imaginable we will be in for about a week before that...but if we were in anything close to a decent pattern now looking at that in the long ranges we would be pretty upset about that look.  

ETA:  ironically even though the GFS looks like a hot mess on wheels at day 16, its evolving the pattern in a direction that at least has a fraction more hope/possibility beyond that time period.  

put it this way...if we were PAC NW weenies and we kept waking up every morrning to what the GEFS and EPS were saying....we would be having Glorious discussions without any fear of losing our pattern

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

This from October 2019 , so basically 3 months have passed , note all  4 models indicate  +NAO for the period DJF. Guess what so anfar it is correct. 

I believe HM a couple months ago thought there would indeed be intervals of at least some -NAO., so far nada... 

I would guess if we get one maybe it would be March.  Would it be beneficial is hard to say, unless it falls into the mold of 2018. 

 

 

 

 

HM is amazing but he would tell you his winter forecast has been not to good this year. He does have a bias of being too early on things so maybe what he thought will eventually come but....yikes

[Ji]

I dont believe we have made any progress in the past few days except for this short lived window Jan 16-18. We are running on a treadmill

[frd]

@psuhoffman to go along with your previous post,  note that NH snow cover has really declined. 

I propose 2020 has no analog currently, but what is clear is a continuation of the November head fake>

 

Using November as a whole, and  December prior to the 15 th as clues to help to forecast the true heart of winter,  so far at least has been diminished the last two years.   

Snow cover looked great , now look at it and the extent. Yuck 

NAM looked good and now horrible.

Very cold and anomalous November cold and now warm in may NH areas. 

What once worked as clues to the winter do  not seem to carry the same weight  as they did before the last couple years.    

I looked at the Northern Hemisphere temps and it is a bit concerning that is warm everywhere.  

 

 

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

put it this way...if we were PAC NW weenies and we kept waking up every morrning to what the GEFS and EPS were saying....we would be having Glorious discussions without any fear of losing our pattern

Other than the mountains out west how much snow has anyone in the PAC NW gotten. I have tons of friends in Seattle and Portland and they don't have squat

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Other than the mountains out west how much snow has anyone in the PAC NW gotten. I have tons of friends in Seattle and Portland and they don't have squat

i dont think the good pattern for them has started yet