January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

I noticed on the LR gefs the PAC ridge is the strongest bit has been forecast that the max range so far. However I also see the PV is finally starting to move out of Baffin bay. Is that a wash? A fail look? Or a potential way we can get some blocking eventually in the NAO as the PV breaks off and pulls away?

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I noticed on the LR gefs the PAC ridge is the strongest bit has been forecast that the max range so far. However I also see the PV is finally starting to move out of Baffin bay. Is that a wash? A fail look? Or a potential way we can get some blocking eventually in the NAO as the PV breaks off and pulls away?

 

Verbatim that panel is a fail because the atl help is brief and back to square one by the end. However, spread is really starting to show up with both the pac ridge and confluence above us. I'm huggin the geps until something better comes along

ETA: under the hood of that mean h5 panel is a good mix of half decent solutions to our north. About half are still crappy in the east but there are enough good ones to make it interesting with storm tracks.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Mersky said:

Gfs extended 

Now THAT is a west coast trough.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Mersky said:

Gfs extended 

So using my education gained from PSUHoffman's Climo class room, (and other posts from him and others on this forum) I see 50/50 Low.  Mostly troughing in PNA domain.  Pacific Doom Blob is trying to turn into EPO ridge, but it is too far west to do any good.  Some ridging in NAO domain, but centered too far south.  TPV in Hudson Bay, nothing particularly good there.  So overall this is a bad setup, right (somebody break out the red grading pin).

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I thought that 2012 was a pig Alaska vortex, sort of like the crappy pattern we are just getting out of, as opposed to the one we are going into.

You’re right. It was Jan 2013 that featured a big disgusting central pac ridge.  2012 was a consistent AK vortex with no NAO help. An AK vortex can be ok second half but only if you have a -NAO. 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So using my education gained from PSUHoffman's Climo class room, (and other posts from him and others on this forum) I see 50/50 Low.  Mostly troughing in PNA domain.  Pacific Doom Blob is trying to turn into EPO ridge, but it is too far west to do any good.  Some ridging in NAO domain, but centered too far south.  TPV in Hudson Bay, nothing particularly good there.  So overall this is a bad setup, right (somebody break out the red grading pin).

Pretty good 

[WeatherPSU]

Dr. Haybear of PSU indicates a massive pattern flip early February. Uses the fog methodology. 

Thoughts are that when we have a warm and damp period with fog it is usually accompanied by some SECS.  Look for this as we head into February - a classic set-up to come. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

57 minutes ago, WeatherPSU said:

Dr. Haybear of PSU indicates a massive pattern flip early February. Uses the fog methodology. 

Thoughts are that when we have a warm and damp period with fog it is usually accompanied by some SECS.  Look for this as we head into February - a classic set-up to come. 

Well it’s warm, damp, and foggy today. We have all the ingredients now so why are we gonna wait until February?

[Chris78]

27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs day 7 just gave us frozen smack dab in the middle of the shutout pattern . I'd take it 

Shortwave tracks right  under us . 

Looks like areas of low pressure along a frontal boundary. Thats definitely a way to score in this awful pattern.

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs at 234 sneaking some higher  heights in the AO domain . 

Some real cold air in the northern plains day 10 +

Damn..a 1056 high dropping  into ND at hr 270

Probably change in 6hrs

That transient confluence and favorable atlantic around the 17th is now showing up on all ensembles. Not sure how long the window will be but imho it's one of the better looks we've seen. All kinds of scenarios on the table with a big slow moving CAD high.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, WeatherPSU said:

Dr. Haybear of PSU indicates a massive pattern flip early February. Uses the fog methodology. 

Thoughts are that when we have a warm and damp period with fog it is usually accompanied by some SECS.  Look for this as we head into February - a classic set-up to come. 

Sorry, I do not mean to be rude, but is this post serious, or is it a parody?  I have to admit it does not make any sense to me.

[psuhoffman]

Day 10 op euro would actually set up a good pattern day 11-15. Builds enough of a ridge bridge to suppress the pattern get the boundary near us. A little more HL blocking and this is suddenly a really good look. We need to see the ensembles start to go this way though.  So far just an op run at range 

 

[CAPE]

Towards D15, the latest EPS and GEPS are still showing signs of slight  improvement on the Pac side, especially the EPS, and have +heights from Scandinavia building into GL, the GEPS in particular. GEFS looks more bleak, and suggests we have a long, long way to go.

[Wonderdog]

I like the look on the GFS for the storm on the 15th. Big improvements from the last few runs. Nice ridge out west; 1048 HP in upper midwest. To my untrained eyes, a continued southward progression of the trough could make for an interesting event. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I like the look on the GFS for the storm on the 15th. Big improvements from the last few runs. Nice ridge out west; 1048 HP in upper midwest. To my untrained eyes, a continued southward progression of the trough could make for an interesting event. 

There is still a weak signal for something around the 17th on the GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS. Something to keep an eye on, as beyond the next few days there probably wont be much winter weather to be tracked for a while.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I like the look on the GFS for the storm on the 15th. Big improvements from the last few runs. Nice ridge out west; 1048 HP in upper midwest. To my untrained eyes, a continued southward progression of the trough could make for an interesting event. 

You mean the op right?  The GEFS did not look great to me.  I could see where it might progress later down the line to something serviceable.  

[BristowWx]

Just now, Mersky said:

The GEFS aren’t even run off the new GFS so I am not sure how reliable they can be anymore. I believe a new ensemble system begins this year with mire members run off the new GFS. 

Ah I always forget that.  I guess it’s best to stick with the EPS unless it’s not good.  Maybe Feb will be better.  at least we have this car topper on Tuesday to divert our attention. 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Mersky said:

The GEFS aren’t even run off the new GFS so I am not sure how reliable they can be anymore. I believe a new ensemble system begins this year with mire members run off the new GFS. 

They are exactly as useful as they were a year ago when they were still linked to the old gfs op. They didn’t degrade somehow they just haven’t progressed. The new gefs will no doubt be an upgrade. But I guarantee you the current gefs is vastly superior at very long leads to relying on a single operational run. Of ANY model 

 

[Bob Chill]

37 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You mean the op right?  The GEFS did not look great to me.  I could see where it might progress later down the line to something serviceable.  

We have a discrete window between the 15-18th when strong confluence develops to our north out into the Atl and a half decent cold airmass to work with. All ens agree on some version. The tricky part is it's transient. So once chance at something from what I see. Will be at least 4-5 days before we know if a shortwave is going to cooperate

[Bob Chill]

Here's 0z eps spread during the 15-18th. About 10 members with more than a dusting so 20% see opportunity during this period. We'll see how that changes over the coming week

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Mersky said:

The GEFS aren’t even run off the new GFS so I am not sure how reliable they can be anymore. I believe a new ensemble system begins this year with mire members run off the new GFS. 

 

15 minutes ago, Mersky said:

 

I didn’t say they weren’t useful Mr Hoffman. And no where did I say they aren’t better than any op model. Jeez 

The discussion  you replied to was comparing the gfs and gefs. The implication of what you said was clear. 

[psuhoffman]

GEFS looks like crap long range BUT at the very very end its showing a way out.  The NAM seems to be flipping and we are one good wave break (maybe from a cutter) from getting the atlantic ridging to build over the top and link up with the Pac ridge...and that is when that western trough will broaden and come east.  You can see it starting to move east at the very end in response to the changes up top.  Now taking the day 16 GEFS is silly...just saying it is on its way to a better place by February IF that look is right.  Thats all.

BTW, just to clarify what the purpose of my pattern posts was.  I am NOT saying there is no hope.  I didn't even make a real forecast...I made a seasonal one and if those pattern analogs are right it will bust.  I don't really make day 20 forecasts...thats silly.  I was just posting the analogs to what we are looking at and showing what the past indicates the likely outcomes are.  And yea, historically most of them turned into pretty bad winters.  But some did not.  I am rooting for the "some that turned out ok".   But the numbers are what the numbers are, not a forecast, just a "this is what happened in the past when we had a similar pattern in January".  It is not what I am saying will happen or what I am rooting for.  But given the reality of the past results I have tempered my own expectations so that I am not frustrated everyday when things don't suddenly look like a winter wonderland on guidance.  If we get a 1960 or 2006 type pattern flip GREAT and I will be even more excited given my current low expectations.   BTW we can probably include 2007 in that flip category.  It didn't work out great for us but we did get some snow AND the pattern was great in Feb 2007 even if the results left a lot to be desired.  As I pointed out in the climo thread...luck has as much to do with our results as pattern sometimes.  

[stormtracker]

So we out here just ignoring Tuesday? 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So we out here just ignoring Tuesday? 

No I think there is a possibility someone in our forum gets a small event (depending on your standards, Ji and Mdecoy should probably ignore it though).  But even if DC manages a nice 2" event Tuesday the idea of reaching climo for winter is still in some jeopardy given the pattern look we are seeing.  But even most of our really bad years had some snow at some point.  When I say things don't look good I usually mean wrt to climo not that we won't get any snow at all.  

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So we out here just ignoring Tuesday? 

There’s a thread

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

There’s a thread

Where?

[mappy]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Where?

 

[Ji]

Where?

It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

45 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where?

It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it

We will need “way out of this” title.  Heard that a lot this year.  Also mirage and light at the end of the tunnel. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Now taking the day 16 GEFS is silly...just saying it is on its way to a better place by February IF that look is right.  Thats all.

Will have to monitor this, may have some merit to it .