January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

Long range gfs isn’t far off from a much better pac. At least the trend at the end seems to suggest it. And those above normal heights in our area aren’t all that high as evidenced by the temperature profile.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Long range gfs isn’t far off from a much better pac. At least the trend at the end seems to suggest it. And those above normal heights in our area aren’t all that high as evidenced by the temperature profile.

Aleutian ridge progresses and starts shoving the massive repeating trough in the west eastward so that's something. It's just an op but it doesn't support the ens idea of being back to something at least "acceptable" before the 18th. Still plenty of work to do at the end of the gfs. My main concern is the repeating trough ends up hanging on far longer than we want. We'll know one way or another within the next 3-5 days.

[psuhoffman]

I think whether we salvage a decent winter pattern sometime the second half depends on what the MJO does.  Right now the surge into a high amplitude MC wave is feeding the central pac ridge.  What happens late January into Feb depends on what happens with that wave.  The long range euro implies it dies then recycles back towards the warm phases in early Feb.

That would probably kill winter.  We might get a transient shot at something during the week the MJO wave relaxes but by the time any decent pattern could establish the wave would be surging back into warm phases, pumping the pac ridge and its winter over at that point..being early Feb and about to recycle right back where we are now.  That is the 2002/2008/2012 option.  And the still warming water near the MC really bothers me because it gives credibility to that possibility.  

If the MJO can survive into phase 8/1/2/3 then we will likely see things evolve better.  I do see signs that the Atlantic wants to help, but the current mjo state is going to fight that off.  The pacific will defy any wave breaking attempts from the atlantic so long as we have a high amplitude phase 4/5/6.  If we can get an appreciable period either without MJO influence, or better cold phase influence I do think the atlantic will be able to bully the pattern in our favor.  Last nights euro run trended more favorably wrt the mjo progression.

Ironically, and its why the GFS backed off on its colder look from yesterday, the GEFS flipped places with the EPS and now shows the MJO cycling in the warm phases with no end in sight.  I think how this resolves is the key to our prospects for improvement.  If we see the MJO trend towards a workable look in a week or so we might be ok.  If we see it start to show signs of wanting to recycle (basically a standing wave in the MC) in the warm phases all winter we are in big big trouble.  

Just another MJO thought (maybe someone above my pay grade can answer this) but I was thinking about how the warm phases have a much higher correlation to temps here than the cold phases.  I wonder how much of that is because the warm phases directly impact the pacific ridge amplitude/location but there are two cold phase locations.  The phase 8/1 out near the dateline would more directly impact our pattern by forcing the ridge east into the EPO/PNA domain, where the cold phase waves off Africa would only indirectly do that by placing a ridge in a favorable location in Asia to way downstream effect North America but there is way more that can disrupt that between there and here.  I wonder if we only looked at MJO forcing near the dateline if it would have a higher correlation (similar to the MC forcing) than when we include all cold phases, some of which are from the Indian Ocean forcing.  Maybe someone out there knows, I've not seen any study on this.  

 

I am not saying I think that will have much bearing on our outcome.  There is a more favorable SST to IO forcing vs Dateline.  Unfortunately the waters near the dateline in the PAC are cooling...not what we want.  But I think there are enough signs the atlantic wants to help that if we can just get the MJO out of the "killing us" phases, even if its the less favorable IO forcing it would be enough.  At least I hope.  

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think whether we salvage a decent winter pattern sometime the second half depends on what the MJO does.  Right now the surge into a high amplitude MC wave is feeding the central pac ridge.  What happens late January into Feb depends on what happens with that wave.  The long range euro implies it dies then recycles back towards the warm phases in early Feb.

That would probably kill winter.  We might get a transient shot at something during the week the MJO wave relaxes but by the time any decent pattern could establish the wave would be surging back into warm phases, pumping the pac ridge and its winter over at that point..being early Feb and about to recycle right back where we are now.  That is the 2002/2008/2012 option.  And the still warming water near the MC really bothers me because it gives credibility to that possibility.  

If the MJO can survive into phase 8/1/2/3 then we will likely see things evolve better.  I do see signs that the Atlantic wants to help, but the current mjo state is going to fight that off.  The pacific will defy any wave breaking attempts from the atlantic so long as we have a high amplitude phase 4/5/6.  If we can get an appreciable period either without MJO influence, or better cold phase influence I do think the atlantic will be able to bully the pattern in our favor.  Last nights euro run trended more favorably wrt the mjo progression.

Ironically, and its why the GFS backed off on its colder look from yesterday, the GEFS flipped places with the EPS and now shows the MJO cycling in the warm phases with no end in sight.  I think how this resolves is the key to our prospects for improvement.  If we see the MJO trend towards a workable look in a week or so we might be ok.  If we see it start to show signs of wanting to recycle (basically a standing wave in the MC) in the warm phases all winter we are in big big trouble.  

Just another MJO thought (maybe someone above my pay grade can answer this) but I was thinking about how the warm phases have a much higher correlation to temps here than the cold phases.  I wonder how much of that is because the warm phases directly impact the pacific ridge amplitude/location but there are two cold phase locations.  The phase 8/1 out near the dateline would more directly impact our pattern by forcing the ridge east into the EPO/PNA domain, where the cold phase waves off Africa would only indirectly do that by placing a ridge in a favorable location in Asia to way downstream effect North America but there is way more that can disrupt that between there and here.  I wonder if we only looked at MJO forcing near the dateline if it would have a higher correlation (similar to the MC forcing) than when we include all cold phases, some of which are from the Indian Ocean forcing.  Maybe someone out there knows, I've not seen any study on this.  

 

I am not saying I think that will have much bearing on our outcome.  There is a more favorable SST to IO forcing vs Dateline.  Unfortunately the waters near the dateline in the PAC are cooling...not what we want.  But I think there are enough signs the atlantic wants to help that if we can just get the MJO out of the "killing us" phases, even if its the less favorable IO forcing it would be enough.  At least I hope.  

I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future 

Some recent studies suggest the genesis of this might lay with what is going on to the SW of the enso regions though.  Not sure it would really change that equation much.  During a strong enso event that signal could overpower this phenomenon for a while, but after it might just revert if the cause is from the IO and waters near Australia.  

[midatlanticweather]

 

 

 

[BristowWx]

Let’s hope the Atlantic gets blocked up like HM says he is hoping for.  

[pasnownut]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not right/wrong...shift the ridge into an EPO ridge WITH AO blocking and that is a very good look.  I was just pointing out that the comps to this pattern say that is NOT the most likely outcome.  Looking at EVERY example of a similar comp pattern NONE went on to get better without blocking.  NONE.  That isn't a forecast...its just me pointing out that I can't find any examples of a pattern like the one we are in that improved without some help from a -AO/NAO.  So I am not holding my breath on that.  Secondly...in the examples that did improve, it was way more common that the blocking over the top forced the pac ridge to retrograde (at least in the mid latitudes) not progress.  If that ridge did progress into the epo and link up with an AO ridge that is totally fine, just saying the numbers don't support that to be as likely as AO ridging forcing a retrogression in the PAC.  

I'm concerned that if you get your retrograde and there is no blocking.....its flip flop Feb. around here.  There will be a ridge bridge alright, but it will be in the east starting in Venezuela right up to Nova Scotia.  

I mentioned the tellies, because when we see AO trending neut/neg, that is something that can and does happen.  NAO has been rather elusive at best.

It would be interesting to how many modeled and verified AO's vs NAO's have come to pass in the last decade or 2.  Looking to see how and if ENS guidance starts to reflect AO in the next couple days.  GEFS today says keep waiting.  

 

 

[pasnownut]

39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Long range gfs isn’t far off from a much better pac. At least the trend at the end seems to suggest it. And those above normal heights in our area aren’t all that high as evidenced by the temperature profile.

with all due respect, give it 6 hrs.....

 

[WxUSAF]

GEFS goes ape sh-t on the Scand ridge and starts around D10 so not too far out  in fantasyland. EPO also teaches poleward through AK.  Still not a great pattern but could be close to a workable one by the end if it worked out that way.

[GramaxRefugee]

I hope no one minds that I've resurrected a post from Sept 25, but a coworker was looking at this snowfall data and suggested that we check to see if any of these years had a warm Christmas Day. Well, I got to looking at the data, and found some of it interesting, and dare I say, encouraging.
For those old enough to remember the first Washington's Birthday storm in Feb 1979, look at the similarities. (Listed as Dec 1978 )
Even the coolest 12/25 in 1884 fired off a high of 66 on 12/31.
(I looked at the late Dec period in general, not just 12/25.)
I didn't expect the see anything in this, but now I think it's worthy of posting. Thanks for your indulgence.

---------- Original Posted Data; Updated-------------

Dry Sept -vs- snowfall amount:

I investigated the 8 years mentioned by LWX in the AFD today regarding driest Septembers. (5  Driest Septembers BWI, DCA, IAD)
Using BWI annual snowfall records, (normal 20.1 inches), I checked the following winters of each year for either normal, or above normal; rounding to the nearest inch. So basically, if a winter was 20" or higher it makes the winner's circle. (2005 wouldn't have made it without the rounding to 20, but eh, close enough)

So, I was a bit surprised that only 2007, at 9" was below normal.  Here's the years and following winter snowfall (Balto snow data):

Update 1/2/20: Added the Max Temp on Christmas Day, Dec Max T, Dec Snowfall, and monthly temp departure.

          12/25 Max    Dec Max (day)         Other notable         Dec Snow (3.0 avg)    Dep

1884 - 31"              32f     66f, 12/31    63f on 12/7                      3.8”             +1.4
1906 - 31"              32      68, 12/6       66 on 12/15                     0.2               -0.4
1967 - 23"              40      62, 12/22     61 on 12/19                     4.6               +0.6
1977 - 34"              52      59, 12/14     26/13 on 12/28                0.5               -1.1
1978 - 43"              48      72, 12/8       71 on 12/4                       0                  +3.4  
2005 - 20"              42      58, 12/24                                           6.0               -2.7
2007 - 9"                50      63, 12/23     nothing else over 59         4.8               +1.1
2014 - 29"              61      69, 12/1       61 on 12/24, 60, 12/28     0.2               +3.2

2019 - ??                49      65, 12/28                                            0.3               +3.2

avg = 27.5”

The 1977 was only at DCA; 1978 and 2014 only at IAD. Otherwise pretty good mix.
Hope we don't see another 2007/8 winter; or worse.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm concerned that if you get your retrograde and there is no blocking.....its flip flop Feb. around here.  There will be a ridge bridge alright, but it will be in the east starting in Venezuela right up to Nova Scotia.  

I mentioned the tellies, because when we see AO trending neut/neg, that is something that can and does happen.  NAO has been rather elusive at best.

It would be interesting to how many modeled and verified AO's vs NAO's have come to pass in the last decade or 2.  Looking to see how and if ENS guidance starts to reflect AO in the next couple days.  GEFS today says keep waiting.  

 

If we get no AO/NAO help neither regression or progression will save us.  We would need an almost complete reversal of the pac pattern to work without any AO/NAO help.  We would want a trough exactly where the ridge is.  History suggests with that anomalous a ridge there, some progression/regression is realistic but not a total flip of the pac pattern.   We actually had a bit of A0/NAO help last year, not as much as the long range guidance kept teasing us with...and so not enough to get the pattern good...just enough to keep it from being total crap.  But with a hostile AO/NAO that pac is a total dumpster fire.  We would need so much to change in a way that is highly unlikely there without getting a NAM state reversal that its not even really worth worrying about it imo.  Just not gonna happen.  Basically, if the NAM stays positive the rest of winter we will very likely end up with very little snow.   

[HighStakes]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro throws the Western crew a bone for Tuesday. 

Still warm at the surface but not awful. At least its something to keep interest and not 10 days away. in. Push the timing back 6 hours and cool the surface a bit then its doable. It certainly could beef up a bit. Probably a forum divider though. 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we get no AO/NAO help neither regression or progression will save us.  We would need an almost complete reversal of the pac pattern to work without any AO/NAO help.  We would want a trough exactly where the ridge is.  History suggests with that anomalous a ridge there, some progression/regression is realistic but not a total flip of the pac pattern.   We actually had a bit of A0/NAO help last year, not as much as the long range guidance kept teasing us with...and so not enough to get the pattern good...just enough to keep it from being total crap.  But with a hostile AO/NAO that pac is a total dumpster fire.  We would need so much to change in a way that is highly unlikely there without getting a NAM state reversal that its not even really worth worrying about it imo.  Just not gonna happen.  Basically, if the NAM stays positive the rest of winter we will very likely end up with very little snow.   

Agreed.  I think we looking at different ways to a better pattern (and for me just a serviceable one is all I'm asking for) as I'm a realist and dont waste any time wishing for things to happen.  I just make a life making lemonade outta lemons if you will.

As long as I see that blue blob in the SW,  we literally and figuratively will be sweatin it out here in the east w/o help from AO/NAO domains.  Just gotta hope that one or both come to save us.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Still warm at the surface but not awful. At least its something to keep interest and not 10 days away. in. Push the timing back 6 hours and cool the surface a bit then its doable. It certainly could beef up a bit. Probably a forum divider though. 

We'll see how it goes but the medium to short range trend has been norther/warmer for several weeks now. Keep getting chances even in a jacked up pattern and something could break right but I'm very skeptical that this can break in anyone's favor on the sub. If I'm wrong I'll gladly admit my bust while I'm shoveling. 

[pasnownut]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS goes ape sh-t on the Scand ridge and starts around D10 so not too far out  in fantasyland. EPO also teaches poleward through AK.  Still not a great pattern but could be close to a workable one by the end if it worked out that way.

Just saw that.  Yeah nice to see the Southern press of cold on our side as a result.  While I'm not a fan of looking WAY out beyond d10, it appears to anchor in and hold through the end of the run.  

[pasnownut]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

We'll see how it goes but the medium to short range trend has been norther/warmer for several weeks now. Keep getting chances even in a jacked up pattern and something could break right but I'm very skeptical that this can break in anyone's favor on the sub. If I'm wrong I'll gladly admit my bust while I'm shoveling. 

I'll eat crow just for sh!ts n giggles if that helps.  

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll see how it goes but the medium to short range trend has been norther/warmer for several weeks now. Keep getting chances even in a jacked up pattern and something could break right but I'm very skeptical that this can break in anyone's favor on the sub. If I'm wrong I'll gladly admit my bust while I'm shoveling. 

C’mon Bob. Middle of the day, temps mid 30’s, low to our west. What could possibly go wrong? This is a lock.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...get the cloud deck to move in early and speed up timing for early morning start vs afternoon.  

Really can't say anything because of my God like powers when it comes to my posting about our snow chances but I will say, 'The squirrel is digging for the nut'. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS goes ape sh-t on the Scand ridge and starts around D10 so not too far out  in fantasyland. EPO also teaches poleward through AK.  Still not a great pattern but could be close to a workable one by the end if it worked out that way.

Strongest ridge/biggest height anomalies in the NH are no longer in the EPAC at the end of the 12z GEFS run. I like that look.

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Be careful...4/5 days out still.  You might eat crow . Eps still has the door ajar 

All jokes aside, I probably favor this running through or just to the west of our region at this time. But 4 days so let's see where it goes.

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Strongest ridge/biggest height anomalies in the NH are no longer in the EPAC at the end of the 12z GEFS run. I like that look.

The look at the end of the extended on the GEFS isn't too bad for central PA northward. Too bad we are south of there. 

[Weather Will]

Looking at the individual EPS members about 6 percent chance if you count the individual members with more than a dusting for Tues.

[Bob Chill]

EPS improved the Atl d10-15 but the western trough is still in beast mode and not moving so hurry up and wait. lol

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

The look at the end of the extended on the GEFS isn't too bad for central PA northward. Too bad we are south of there. 

We extrapolate, don't we? 

I just like the trend of the big pig ridge in the Pac looking a bit weaker while a new pig ridge emerges over Scandinavia. Not quite there yet at the end of the run, but good signs.

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Looking at the individual EPS members about 6 percent chance if you count the individual members with more than a dusting for Tues.

The farther west you are the better shot you have Tuesday morning of seeing something. Alot of the individual members look like the op. Looks like west of I -81 has the best shot at an inch or 2. Lets hope we can push things further east a bit. Speeding it up 6 hours would make a difference also.

[Weather Will]

NWS Afternoon Discussion on Tuesday:

Moving into Tuesday, the trough initially located over the center of

the country is expected to amplify and consolidate as a shortwave

disturbance descends down the backside of the trough. Exactly how

this shortwave interacts with the parent trough will have a large

impact on our forecast locally. Given the potential for a complex

interaction between these two features, there is a fair amount of

uncertainty surrounding the forecast later Tuesday into Tuesday

Night. Model consensus currently is that a weak area of low pressure

will form over the Tennessee Valley, then track northeast into the

Ohio Valley before ultimately transferring energy off the coast

Tuesday Night. Some showers will be possible in the zone of low-

level warm advection Tuesday into Tuesday Night. However, the mid-

upper level trough looks as though it will be quite progressive, so

any coastal storm that forms should be well off to our northeast by

the time it matures. As a result, precipitation totals aren`t

expected to be that impressive, with nearly all ensemble members in

both the EPS and GEFS showing under a half inch through the duration

of the event. Some cooler air may try to work in on the backside of

the system, so can`t rule out the system ending as a little snow

north and west of the I-95 corridor. However, that appears to be an

unlikely scenario at the moment. Conditions will dry out by Tuesday

Night, but upslope snow showers may persist along the Allegheny

Front in strong WNW flow.

[CAPE]

QBO for Dec dropped to 1.66.

[nj2va]

GEPS (not the best ensemble but hey, why not?) trying for a ridge bridge in way out in la la land.  Would help displace the TPV south and help build heights into GL.  Drink up, weenies.  

[CAPE]

Just now, nj2va said:

GEPS (not the best ensemble but hey, why not?) trying for a ridge bridge in way out in la la land.  Would help displace the TPV south and help build heights into GL.  Drink up, weenies.  

Seems all 3 major global ens are heading in the same general direction up top. We are in watch and wait mode to see if things continue to "trend" favorably.