January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[nj2va]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not going to do them much good. By the time they build up their base the torch will come and obliterate it. Its likely going to be a very rough year for them. By the time we get consistent cold (if we do) its likely too late for them to recover. They might have a good second half but losing the front 1/2 of winter is a killer for them. And in years where it’s crappy early often people turn to other things or go out west and it impacts them later too. Just realistically it’s going to be a bad year for them. It happens. They are used to it. The resorts that do a good job managing their Capitol will survive so long as we don’t get multiple years like that strung together. 

Yeah, agree that things aren’t looking good for them.  I’m at about 16” in McHenry this year where we average ~110” a year.  We spent a week there over New Years and went skiing a few times.  Not many trails open (~12 or so I think) & a sustained period of low 50s again like it was between Christmas & the 30th will really hurt.  But any snow is good and will help them rebuild what they lost during the mild period before NYE (even if its gone after the next warm period).  

 

[showmethesnow]

Since @Ji has pointed out my obvious Snow God status, where postings from myself control our snow fates, I have decided to speak henceforth in code. So get out your super duper snow decoder rings as we see what the latest EPS run has to offer us.

***Rings can be bought for $99.99. But wait!!!! That $99.99 not only gets you one ring but two so that you may share with your significant other!!! And there is more!!! Order now and we will also throw in a video montage of the 09-10 winter for you to enjoy while we suffer through another Mid-Atlantic Fail winter. Rings can be purchased at my souvenir shop located in @WxWatcher007(aka The Reaper) luxurious resort. While at the resort feel free to peruse the many offerings available to you as well as the rooms which are fit for a King and a Queen. And if the Resort pleases you feel free to use the coupon code, 'Showme is a snow god' on Groupon to receive an additional 20% off room rates.***

 

As far as our weekend prospects here is the code phrase.

The Blue Ji has stolen the squirrels nut. I repeat. The Blue Ji has stolen the squirrels nut. 

 

Code phrase for Day 4/5 prospects.

The squirrel is searching for the nut. Again. The squirrel is searching for the nut.

 

 

And finally the long tern prospects offered up by the EPS.

The squirrel meets the Semi. I repeat. The squirrel meets the Semi.

 

 

 

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Since @Ji has pointed out my obvious Snow God status, where postings from myself control our snow fates, I have decided to speak henceforth in code. So get out your super duper snow decoder rings as we see what the latest EPS run has to offer us.

***Rings can be bought for $99.99. But wait!!!! That $99.99 not only gets you one ring but two so that you may share with your significant other!!! And there is more!!! Order now and we will also throw in a video montage of the 09-10 winter for you to enjoy while we suffer through another Mid-Atlantic Fail winter. Rings can be purchased at my souvenir shop located in @WxWatcher007(aka The Reaper) luxurious resort. While at the resort feel free to peruse the many offerings available to you as well as the rooms which are fit for a King and a Queen. And if the Resort pleases you feel free to use the coupon code, 'Showme is a snow god' on Groupon to receive an additional 20% off room rates.***

 

As far as our weekend prospects here is the code phrase.

The Blue Ji has stolen the squirrels nut. I repeat. The Blue Ji has stolen the squirrels nut. 

 

Code phrase for Day 4/5 prospects.

The squirrel is searching for the nut. Again. The squirrel is searching for the nut.

 

 

And finally the long tern prospects offered up by the EPS.

The squirrel meets the Semi. I repeat. The squirrel meets the Semi.

 

 

 

Maybe a blind squirrel would have better luck?

[CAPE]

Looking at the latest CFS runs, CPC can go ahead and revise their temperature probability map for Jan. 

[dailylurker]

21 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

One bad OP GFS 18z and people are back in the panic room? Sheesh. 

Ummm.. it's been bad runs since before Christmas. Anyway. Looks like I can plant my cover crop I didn't have time to plant in the fall. 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking at the latest CFS runs, CPC can go ahead and revise their temperature probability map for Jan. 

Check out the latest CFS extended. It disagrees with the seasonal (at least for the first half of Feb) as it delivers the cold at the end of January through mid Feb .

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Check out the latest CFS extended. It disagrees with the seasonal (at least for the first half of Feb) as it delivers the cold at the end of January through mid Feb .

Yeah after I looked again at the weeklies its about the same. Starts to improve the last week of Jan. Still think CPC is off on their EC probability for the MA given the strong signal for a SE ridge for the foreseeable future.

[PDIII]

11 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Comparing the 18Z to 12z GEFS clown snow map mean at 6 days it was a marginal improvement.

This basically says that it is not going to snow.. whatever it is showing in Garrett county is just whatever they get after  a frontal passage.. we dont get that.. and the 2-3 inch stuff in Frederick County is noise.  This map is depressing..

[osfan24]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The climo thing is old. I get frustrated when we go stretches without snow and I get more of it so I don’t blame anyone for the frustration.  So simply saying it has sucked is fine. When I go off on someone like Mdecoy or whatever he is going by now, it’s not for being frustrated, it’s for making up BS climo proclamations. It’s ok to feel like it sucks. But it’s not ok to pretend this isn’t normal. Truth is our climo sucks.  Every once in a while we get lucky with a year or most recent a string of them when snow comes easy. The other 75% of the time is long stretches of nothingness with an occasional fluke storm or two mixed in if we’re lucky. Our base state is suck. We’re just far enough north that in a rare good pattern where the jet gets suppressed near our longitude we can get into the goods. The rest of the time we’re frustratingly too far south. Close enough to feel screwed when the storms go just north of us. 

Isn't it more about being east for us and not too far south? I mean, NYC is quite often too far south. Unless you are in the interior Northeast or in New England, you basically get the same snow every year, with some exceptions obviously. NYC averages a couple inches of snow per year more than BWI.

[osfan24]

6 minutes ago, PDIII said:

This basically says that it is not going to snow.. whatever it is showing in Garrett county is just whatever they get after  a frontal passage.. we dont get that.. and the 2-3 inch stuff in Frederick County is noise.  This map is depressing..

Did anyone really expect it to snow during this period though? It's been obvious to me for a few days now that we are done through at least January 20 unless some fluke event hits us, and I'm not tracking any potential fluke events in this crap pattern unless they get within a 3-4 day window of hitting us.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Check out the latest CFS extended. It disagrees with the seasonal (at least for the first half of Feb) as it delivers the cold at the end of January through mid Feb .

CFS is all EPO driven late Jan into early Feb with zero Atl/NAO blocking. There is the Scan ridge mid Jan but that fades fast. It goes about developing the EPO much differently than what some of the ens means imply. CFS progresses the Pac ridge into the West coast while anchoring and strengthening the PV near Baffin Bay. The ens means suggest the Pac ridge and Western trof retrograde. The ens dont go out as far. This is something PSU discussed the other day discussing progression vs retrogression of the driving Pac ridge. I could see how as the ens means try and build a ridge bridge over the top it would support the retrograde signal. Hoping the CFS is wrong tbh as it keeps delaying the better pattern.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Isn't it more about being east for us and not too far south? I mean, NYC is quite often too far south. Unless you are in the interior Northeast or in New England, you basically get the same snow every year, with some exceptions obviously. NYC averages a couple inches of snow per year more than BWI.

If you look at a snowfall map of the CONUS there is a pretty obvious north south based variance to snowfall. The exception is where elevation and bodies of water influence the distribution. In our local meso climate both exert influence. Because of the warm waters along the coast and the fact we have mountains in our western zones it skews the snowfall gradient SW to NE locally. We also advantage from a dip south in snowfall east of the Apps due to CAD and increased moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. 

So if you are looking at a meso scale level yes going west within our region helps almost as much as going north. But on a broader scale north is much more important. If you live on the west coast going East helps. I was referencing the broader issue not the meso scale one. 

Wrt NYC their long term avg is closer to 28”. They had a couple of historically bad decades that skewed their means lower for a while but since it’s been increasing again. 28 v 20 is a fairly significant difference. Plus keep in mind NYC is right on the coast. You go west into North Jersey and get off the waterfront and averages get into the mid 30s quick. Go a little north of NYC and you hit 40!   Results between DC/Balt and NYC/Bos are skewed some because they are right on the coast and we are inland. A more accurate comp between their latitude and ours would be to compare NYC to Atlantic City or Cape May!  

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CFS is all EPO driven late Jan into early Feb with zero Atl/NAO blocking. There is the Scan ridge mid Jan but that fades fast. It goes about developing the EPO much differently than what some of the ens means imply. CFS progresses the Pac ridge into the West coast while anchoring and strengthening the PV near Baffin Bay. The ens means suggest the Pac ridge and Western trof retrograde. The ens dont go out as far. This is something PSU discussed the other day discussing progression vs retrogression of the driving Pac ridge. I could see how as the ens means try and build a ridge bridge over the top it would support the retrograde signal. Hoping the CFS is wrong tbh as it keeps delaying the better pattern.

Take this for what it’s worth, but history suggests we want regression not progression. First among the years with a period of similar pac ridge +AO regimes it’s very hard to find any that improved dramatically from progression of the pac absent AO or NAO help.  There are a scattering of comps that lead to better patterns though from a NAM state flip causing retrogression of the PAC pattern. Get the pac ridge west a little so it stops digging the trough out west as sharp and pumping the eastern ridge. Then with blocking that’s how you can get a broad flat full conus trough. That leads to a wave pattern we can win with.  

ETA:  it’s ok if the pac ridge is building over the top in the epo domain. But it needs to back off in the mid latitudes out of the area just west of the pna domain. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Take this for what it’s worth, but history suggests we want regression not progression. First among the years with a period of similar pac ridge +AO regimes it’s very hard to find any that improved dramatically from progression of the pac absent AO or NAO help.  There are a scattering of comps that lead to better patterns though from a NAM state flip causing retrogression of the PAC pattern. Get the pac ridge west a little so it stops digging the trough out west as sharp and pumping the eastern ridge. Then with blocking that’s how you can get a broad flat full conus trough. That leads to a wave pattern we can win with.  

This is exactly what I was getting at drawing on the discussion between you and frd. The ens have the retro look and an appearance of a way out with hints of ridging in the AO and NAO regions as the Scan ridge and EPO flex. The CFS, while temp anomalies are colder late Jan and early Feb the 500mb is not as good a look and is cold/progressive with zero Atl/AO help essentially. Beggars cant be choosers but I would rather take a roller coaster ride and some Atl help with active storm chances than just a cold dry fast flow pattern tbh. It is what it will be.

[Ralph Wiggum]

What do you guys make of the LR ens and weeklies anchoring the PV near Baffin Bay? If it is going to just settle in to one specific region, is there where we like to see it? It seems ok to me....better than over Alaska or Siberia but wanted to hear others' thoughts as this seems to be where we are headed almost unanimously on all guidance.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What do you guys make of the LR ens and weeklies anchoring the PV near Baffin Bay? If it is going to just settle in to one specific region, is there where we like to see it? It seems ok to me....better than over Alaska or Siberia but wanted to hear others' thoughts as this seems to be where we are headed almost unanimously on all guidance.

Prefer it to be further sw. Baffin is the location where we want to see higher h5 height anomalies ideally. Doesn't appear to be in the cards anytime soon though.

[Negnao]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you look at a snowfall map of the CONUS there is a pretty obvious north south based variance to snowfall. The exception is where elevation and bodies of water influence the distribution. In our local meso climate both exert influence. Because of the warm waters along the coast and the fact we have mountains in our western zones it skews the snowfall gradient SW to NE locally. We also advantage from a dip south in snowfall east of the Apps due to CAD and increased moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. 

So if you are looking at a meso scale level yes going west within our region helps almost as much as going north. But on a broader scale north is much more important. If you live on the west coast going East helps. I was referencing the broader issue not the meso scale one. 

Wrt NYC their long term avg is closer to 28”. They had a couple of historically bad decades that skewed their means lower for a while but since it’s been increasing again. 28 v 20 is a fairly significant difference. Plus keep in mind NYC is right on the coast. You go west into North Jersey and get off the waterfront and averages get into the mid 30s quick. Go a little north of NYC and you hit 40!   Results between DC/Balt and NYC/Bos are skewed some because they are right on the coast and we are inland. A more accurate comp between their latitude and ours would be to compare NYC to Atlantic City or Cape May!  

Philly annual snowfall is 22 and Dulles annual snowfall is 22 and bwi is around 20. I don’t understand why everyone says it doesn’snow around here  Nyc was around 25 which isn’t much more and I would say they’ve had a historic run the last two decades and that has started to skew their average. Yes many years are not snowy but the same holds true in philly and nyc snow records. That’s how averages work but people can be justified in being disappointed in a snowless winter with a mean around 22 inches. Yes, we’re not Rochester but we can expect snow. 

[Vice-Regent]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Isn't it more about being east for us and not too far south? I mean, NYC is quite often too far south. Unless you are in the interior Northeast or in New England, you basically get the same snow every year, with some exceptions obviously. NYC averages a couple inches of snow per year more than BWI.

Yes it's a longitudinal issue that will only get worse with climate change. I think this is the first winter where the Atlantic is overpowering the Pacific Doom Blob EPO. Remember the ocean is where the AGW signal will show up first.

[CAPE]

Way out there and this seems to flip and flop, but this might be the best NA look yet on a LR mean. If that PAC ridge is going to remain a stable feature, we need this to become reality.

[Bob Chill]

39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Way out there and this seems to flip and flop, but this might be the best NA look yet on a LR mean. If that PAC ridge is going to remain a stable feature, we need this to become reality.

 

EPS is similar with the transition in the Atl. From everything I see, ens agree that we transition back to a more wintry pattern during the 15-18th period. That's my focus and we'll see if that holds and starts moving out in time. I'm sure you're thinking the same. 

Looks like some pretty anomalous warmth on tap from the 10th-15th. Very impressive 850 anomalies showing up from long range. We may touch 60 a couple times this month before anything good happens. 

[pasnownut]

37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Way out there and this seems to flip and flop, but this might be the best NA look yet on a LR mean. If that PAC ridge is going to remain a stable feature, we need this to become reality.

Yeah that definitely works, but when looping through the ens, it also seems to have that stubborn trough in the SW, and as Ens guidance started to show on yesterdays 12 GEFS, that Aleutian ridge showing signs of progressing east in my mind is a good thing as the trough axis suppresses any WAR and creates a boundary (albeit zonal) that can lead to some opportunities around here.  If NAO/AO arent going to help much, that ridge moving east at least keeps the door open for cold intrusions into the central/eastern areas.  If those last to mentioned indicies decide to help, then we really get a nice longwave track that gets us all in the game.  Tellies suggest those 2 domains trend better for us.

 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is similar with the transition in the Atl. From everything I see, ens agree that we transition back to a more wintry pattern during the 15-18th period. That's my focus and we'll see if that holds and starts moving out in time. I'm sure you're thinking the same. 

Looks like some pretty anomalous warmth on tap from the 10th-15th. Very impressive 850 anomalies showing up from long range. We may touch 60 a couple times this month before anything good happens. 

12z run yesterday was a tad better, but 0z still depicts pretty decent cold to our north in the LR. If we get cooperation in the NA, the SE ridge gets flattened/more suppressed and we could be back in the game by the 20th.

And yeah that period looks toasty. Wouldn't be surprised to see a day or 2 of 70 on the coastal plain.

 

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z run yesterday was a tad better, but 0z still depicts pretty decent cold to our north in the LR. If we get cooperation in the NA, the SE ridge gets flattened/more suppressed and we could be back in the game by the 20th.

And yeah that period looks toasty. Wouldn't be surprised to see a day or 2 of 70 on the coastal plain.

 

 

Even with the torch period coming up (agree with you on 95/east making a run at 70+), what I like seeing is the cold to our north.  Seems likely we’d see that shift east with a more favorable upper air pattern & I always like seeing snowpack building to our NW in Canada.  This is probably totally weenie rationale, but I feel like that helps reinforce cooler air if we can get flows out of the NW.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is exactly what I was getting at drawing on the discussion between you and frd. The ens have the retro look and an appearance of a way out with hints of ridging in the AO and NAO regions as the Scan ridge and EPO flex. The CFS, while temp anomalies are colder late Jan and early Feb the 500mb is not as good a look and is cold/progressive with zero Atl/AO help essentially. Beggars cant be choosers but I would rather take a roller coaster ride and some Atl help with active storm chances than just a cold dry fast flow pattern tbh. It is what it will be.

I agree with this.  Some seem to be rooting for progression of the pac ridge...and that would be "better" but almost anything is better.  It still wouldn't be a very snowy look unless it were to severely shift and a trough build in the central pac.  That is asking a lot, and not much historical support for that drastic a pac pattern flip during one season.  Plus...looking at some examples that worked with an epo ridge it took other factors to line up, and even that isnt all that common.  2014 we had a cooperative AO most of the winter.

2015 we got lucky with a displaced TPV in Quebec that suppressed the flow.  Without that it wouldn't have worked.  90% of the time an epo ridge with a +NAM state is a good pattern to our NW and mostly a frustrating one here.  The last example was the first week of Feb 2017.  It looked epic from long range and then turned into cold rain and waves to our north all week.  The better way to go if we want legit snow threats is to retrograde the pac ridge with some blocking over the top.   Luckily the ensembles, which I trust more than the CFS, are hinting at that direction. That is where I am putting my chips.  

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Negnao said:

Philly annual snowfall is 22 and Dulles annual snowfall is 22 and bwi is around 20. I don’t understand why everyone says it doesn’snow around here  Nyc was around 25 which isn’t much more and I would say they’ve had a historic run the last two decades and that has started to skew their average. Yes many years are not snowy but the same holds true in philly and nyc snow records. That’s how averages work but people can be justified in being disappointed in a snowless winter with a mean around 22 inches. Yes, we’re not Rochester but we can expect snow. 

I agree with your sentiments wrt our snowfall climo.  I think we remember the times other places get hit and we dont...but tend to forget the times we get snow and they do not...(it does happen) and times we both get screwed together.  There is some bias there.  But... comparing IAD to Philly isnt really a fair comp though.  PHL is at 36' right on the Delaware rive in the coastal plainr.  IAD is at 313' west of the fall line.   DCA is a better regional comp to PHL.  You have to account for elevation and water.  A better comp to IAD in the philly area is West Chester which averages 26.5".  So there is a bit more difference between DC/PHL/NYC than you are making it seem when you use IAD as a comp to urban locations at sea level in those other two cities.  But it's also not as great as some like Mdecoy make it seem.  

[psuhoffman]

wrt snow climo... if you account for the curvature of the map and line up our general latitude, then account for elevation and bodies of water...you can see that mean snowfall runs mostly parallel to the latitude.  Obviously you have to account for the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic and the Rockies and Apps.  Plus when I say we are too far south...and people counter with Philly or NYC...they are just as much if not more east than north.  If we were NORTH at NYC latitude we would be in central PA NOT NYC.  It isnt fair to put us right on the Atlantic Ocean at sea level and then say "see its not that much more snow".  

[CAPE]

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

wrt snow climo... if you account for the curvature of the map and line up our general latitude, then account for elevation and bodies of water...you can see that mean snowfall runs mostly parallel to the latitude.  Obviously you have to account for the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic and the Rockies and Apps.  

Yeah pretty basic stuff. No substitute for latitude other than elevation. Near the coast, mean snowfall is biased lower despite latitude.

eta- Ofc leeward side of GLs it's biased higher.

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with this.  Some seem to be rooting for progression of the pac ridge...and that would be "better" but almost anything is better.  

 

 

The better way to go if we want legit snow threats is to retrograde the pac ridge with some blocking over the top.   Luckily the ensembles, which I trust more than the CFS, are hinting at that direction. That is where I am putting my chips.  

 

I'm looking at current ENS guidance as well as tellies.  I've been a fan of the AO and i've stated that in the last couple years, and in my mind, if we can shove that ridge east and couple it with -AO, thats a nice combo to play with.  Tellies show that trending more favorable, so thats where my chips are headed.

Point is there are more than a couple ways to do this.  Im not judging whos right or whats best, I'm talking about what guidance is showing us.  Thats all. 

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm looking at current ENS guidance as well as tellies.  I've been a fan of the AO and i've stated that in the last couple years, and in my mind, if we can shove that ridge east and couple it with -AO, thats a nice combo to play with.  Tellies show that trending more favorable, so thats where my chips are headed.

Point is there are more than a couple ways to do this.  Im not judging whos right or whats best, I'm talking about what guidance is showing us.  Thats all. 

It's not right/wrong...shift the ridge into an EPO ridge WITH AO blocking and that is a very good look.  I was just pointing out that the comps to this pattern say that is NOT the most likely outcome.  Looking at EVERY example of a similar comp pattern NONE went on to get better without blocking.  NONE.  That isn't a forecast...its just me pointing out that I can't find any examples of a pattern like the one we are in that improved without some help from a -AO/NAO.  So I am not holding my breath on that.  Secondly...in the examples that did improve, it was way more common that the blocking over the top forced the pac ridge to retrograde (at least in the mid latitudes) not progress.  If that ridge did progress into the epo and link up with an AO ridge that is totally fine, just saying the numbers don't support that to be as likely as AO ridging forcing a retrogression in the PAC.  

[Wonderdog]

H5 looks pretty good for next week's teaser doesn't it? Ridge in the west; trough in the east; temps close.