psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: JB posts something like this every 10 days lol I have no change in my forecast until I actually see what falls and then I will adjust/spin accordingly. Until then keep paying your subscription. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ji said: that usually happens when @showmethesnowgets excited about something in fairness he admitted his excitement is mostly due to lack of anything else to be excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: in fairness he admitted his excitement is mostly due to lack of anything else to be excited about as bad as this pattern is...there is excitement when you see things that can get you out of the horrible pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 this is encourage...seeing some heights build the the regions that are killing our pattern right now 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Mersky said: JB covers all his bases pretty well so he can never admit he was wrong. He isnt the only guy who does it. In fairness to JB (you all know I can't stand him but truth is truth) he admits he was wrong quite a bit. He will spin so that it's "not his fault" with stuff like "I had this or that right but..." but the bigger issue is he is stubborn as all get out and will wait way way way too long to adjust. He is so scared to "flip flop" that he holds onto an outdated idea way too long. There are no points for that... a forecast should always be based on the preponderance of best evidence available. We have to adjust when better evidence, and in weather more recent is almost always better than older guidance/data. As for seasonally.. he will spin a crap look into "not that bad" to try to keep the weenies paying for another month or two...then admit defeat once its well into Feb and apparent his cold/snowy winter idea is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Ji said: this is encourage...seeing some heights build the the regions that are killing our pattern right now Euro op def sped up the reshuffle towards a better pattern. We're starting to see some consensus build on the way we get out of this wretched pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this is encourage...seeing some heights build the the regions that are killing our pattern right now 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro op def sped up the reshuffle towards a better pattern. We're starting to see some consensus build on the way we get out of this wretched pattern. Definitely. What I am most encouraged about is where that might go. The look day 10-15 is still not really great for snow...but that look matches patterns that rolled forward lead to snowier times. Not there quite yet but build that ridging over the top just a little more and suddenly the western energy starts to slide across under us and its game time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Now we're talkin! EPS with a nice shift in the EPO region. Starts building before this panel but this is a very good sign for run over run h5 changes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now we're talkin! EPS with a nice shift in the EPO region. Starts building before this panel but this is a very good sign for run over run h5 changes This is closer to workable than where it was 2 days ago. get that Scandinavia ridge to poke into the NAO domain a little more and it sets off the chain reaction we need. It’s still got a ways to go but we’re seeing progress. I can see an easy way out from that look. The one the other day when the euro spilled a whole blue paint can all over the high latitudes was hard to even see an easy way out. Seeing it back away from a continuation of the raging +NAM state is the best sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 GEFS is the fastest transition to a return to cold continental air in the east but the EPS is now looking very similar in the progression d10-15. GEFS has a better Atl and EPS has a better Pac but both ens show the MA back in the game around the 15th. Trend last few days has been to speed up the transition so I'm becoming encouraged that it's real and not a mirage. Like I've said multiple times, we can sneak in some sort of jacked up event in overall crappy patterns. They don't come easy and I haven't been enthused with the recent teases. Maybe the 7th works out maybe not but by the middle of the month we may actually be back in the game for real winter wx. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is the fastest transition to a return to cold continental air in the east but the EPS is now looking very similar in the progression d10-15. GEFS has a better Atl and EPS has a better Pac but both ens show the MA back in the game around the 15th. Trend last few days has been to speed up the transition so I'm becoming encouraged that it's real and not a mirage. Like I've said multiple times, we can sneak in some sort of jacked up event in overall crappy patterns. They don't come easy and I haven't been enthused with the recent teases. Maybe the 7th works out maybe not but by the middle of the month we may actually be back in the game for real winter wx. Both the EPS and GEFS have been moving the extent of the pac ridge further north and that is a significant change also. The more it builds over the top the more it helps attack the TPV over the pole and helps press down on the flow over the CONUS. When we were seeing unanimous support for an incredibly anomalous flat central pac ridge north of Hawaii that was really bad. This look not nearly as much. Still not good yet...but not the utter dumpster fire it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Mersky said: i liked the late 70's, 80's and 90's JB. Before all the hype and climate change denying JB. In his day he was one of the best mets out there. Good to see the long term getting better. I actually liked him and corresponded with him semi regularly through emails when I was a meteorology student at Penn State in the late 90's and early 2000's. He was always friendly and helpful with my questions and seemed like a really nice guy. He also seemed to really know his stuff. I still think he knows his stuff...I just think he has an agenda. The last time I messaged him we got into a spat about my local climo and his forecast. He was trying to use Washington's snow average to say my area verified his forecast. And then he refused to believe me that I averaged 40" here. And when I pointed out that DC didnt get what DC averages he got snippy. That was the last private conversation I ever tried to have with him. I will admit he has also said some dumb things about teachers that didn't sit well with me but mostly its just his act got old after a while, and he went off the deep end with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 One mid range trend lately is the higher heights over the pole that have been trending stronger. This may give merit to the GEFS idea of a quicker transition as it already has the TPV out of the way when the PAC and or Scan ridge start moving poleward. As amplified as the flow has been so far this cold season it could get fun with cold closer to our doorstep. I dont need epic...just get us back in the hunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Now we're talkin! EPS with a nice shift in the EPO region. Starts building before this panel but this is a very good sign for run over run h5 changes Not just the EPO region but that Scandinavian ridge might be what ends up saving the Atlantic as well. Get it to press the PV a little south and it could be game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Getting the Scand ridge pumping is good in a couple ways: 1. Can retrograde into the -NAO domain/extend over the pole 2. Combined with a strong WPO/EPO ridge, that's a good wave 2 hit to the Strat PV and can be a precursor to a SSW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Icon went way south for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: Icon went way south for next week We have to finish shoveling this first though. At least in Rockville anyways 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: that usually happens when @showmethesnowgets excited about something Yes Ji, tremble in fear. For I, Showme, can smite your snow with a single post on the weatherboards. I suggest tributes from you for now on, 6 figures sounds about right, if you wish to see any snow in your future. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 If only the ICON was worth anything. Tuesday has about the same chance as my Vikes . Awful timing on it though. But hey, we are talking chances so I think we are light years ahead of just a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Its impressive how the models keep missing our area with precip on the 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Its impressive how the models keep missing our area with precip on the 7th Dome city, but as I mentioned to you, I believe we cash in by 20 Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Yes Ji, tremble in fear. For I, Showme, can smite your snow with a single post on the weatherboards. I suggest tributes from you for now on, 6 figures sounds about right, if you wish to see any snow in your future. We've had one snowstorm since 2016 blizzard....what are you going to smite? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 45 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yes Ji, tremble in fear. For I, Showme, can smite your snow with a single post on the weatherboards. I suggest tributes from you for now on, 6 figures sounds about right, if you wish to see any snow in your future. We've had one snowstorm since 2016 blizzard....what are you going to smite? Dec 2017, March 2018, Nov 2018, Jan 2019 And here come the reasons they all don’t count lol. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Dec 2017, March 2018, Nov 2018, Jan 2019 And here come the reasons they all don’t count lol. I counted jan 2019....the rest are out of season and I dont remember dec 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I counted jan 2019....the rest are out of season and I dont remember dec 2017Jan 2019 barley counts...it was heading towards a bust and we got saved at last minute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dec 2017, March 2018, Nov 2018, Jan 2019 And here come the reasons they all don’t count lol. I counted jan 2019....the rest are out of season and I dont remember dec 2017 I don’t remember any snow in December 2017 other than a 1-1.5” little system on Dec 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 All I remember is that we went from Jan 2016 to Jan 2019 without a warning event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 28 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, Ji said: I counted jan 2019....the rest are out of season and I dont remember dec 2017 Jan 2019 barley counts...it was heading towards a bust and we got saved at last minute How can you live in a world where a reverse bust that drops a foot+ barely counts? 18z gfs says screw my post about things might be improving. Looks worse at the end than the beginning. Uh oh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: How can you live in a world where a reverse bust that drops a foot+ barely counts? 18z gfs says screw my post about things might be improving. Looks worse at the end than the beginning. Uh oh LOL, I thought it looked better than 12z, at least on a hemispheric scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 48 minutes ago, Ji said: 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dec 2017, March 2018, Nov 2018, Jan 2019 And here come the reasons they all don’t count lol. I counted jan 2019....the rest are out of season and I dont remember dec 2017 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t remember any snow in December 2017 other than a 1-1.5” little system on Dec 30 I think it was Dec 9 2017. I had 6” up here. The cities only had 2” or so but I know not far NW had 3-5”. I think IAD had 4. Maybe it missed lees burg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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