January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[LP08]

The door is cracked for Jan 8th on the EPS, granted it will require quite a bit of luck to time the PNA ridge to get a favorable outcome.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There may be reason for concern. Some recent scientific literature:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

Thanks for sharing (although I couldn't read the study in it's entirety because of the paywall). But what would you say the consequences of that expanding warm pool would be? (or is that the unknown part? Lol Sounds like it's saying that it's hard to tell what exactly it will do to the MJO. But what about other things?)

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thanks for sharing (although I couldn't read the study in it's entirety because of the paywall). But what would you say the consequences of that expanding warm pool would be? (or is that the unknown part? Lol Sounds like it's saying that it's hard to tell what exactly it will do to the MJO. But what about other things?)

The study indicates that on account of the expanding pool of warm waters, the MJO is spending somewhat more time in the Maritime Continent phases. This would make sense given the ocean-atmosphere-convection linkage.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The study indicates that on account of the expanding pool of warm waters, the MJO is spending somewhat more time in the Maritime Continent phases. This would make sense given the ocean-atmosphere-convection linkage.

And that would mean a little more time in the "warm" phases?

[donsutherland1]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And that would mean a little more time in the "warm" phases?

Unfortunately, yes.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There may be reason for concern. Some recent scientific literature:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

I saw this article earlier, maybe on this site last winter.  It chilled me to the bone.  Imagine in the future, 9 out of 10 years with never-ending Pac puke.

[cbmclean]

On the other hand, I have also seen some speculate that decreasing temp gradients between the tropics and polar regions should lead to a weakening in the polar jet.  I would assume that would mean more time in the -AO mode.  Sure aren't seeing it this winter though.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I saw this article earlier, maybe on this site last winter.  It chilled me to the bone.  Imagine in the future, 9 out of 10 years with never-ending Pac puke.

Snow-lover's version of a Stephen King novel...smh

 

Just now, cbmclean said:

On the other hand, I have also seen some speculate that decreasing temp gradients between the tropics and polar regions should lead to a weakening in the polar jet.  I would assume that would mean more time in the -AO mode.  Sure aren't seeing it this winter though.

I hope that could happen...at least give us something to offset that nightmare scenario!

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

CPC analogs to the current patterns include dates in Dec 95 and early Jan 87. Both of those years had major winter weather right at 21 days later.

January 1960  1964 and 2000 also had similar pacific patterns early and went on to an epic period. But all features blocking. As did 87 and 96. So again we can recover from this but the path is clear. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, LP08 said:

The door is cracked for Jan 8th on the EPS, granted it will require quite a bit of luck to time the PNA ridge to get a favorable outcome.

That’s somewhat closer to the analogs of PNA only snows. There were only 6 in 70 years so still not a great snow look but it’s the first time I saw a realistically workable look on the ensembles. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

January 1960  1964 and 2000 also had similar pacific patterns early and went on to an epic period. But all features blocking. As did 87 and 96. So again we can recover from this but the path is clear. 

So you're saying it doesn't look like we get that blocking in the foreseeable future, or?

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So you're saying it doesn't look like we get that blocking in the foreseeable future, or?

Don't make is more complicated than it needs to be. For right now we're dunski and there is nothing showing up anywhere that says that's going to change. If/when it does then it will be discussed in minute detail. All PSU is saying that just because it looks like a disaster now doesn't mean it's a lock for the next 8 weeks. There are escape hatches to keep an eye out for and until then play golf and stuff. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't make is more complicated than it needs to be. For right now we're dunski and there is nothing showing up anywhere that says that's going to change. If/when it does then it will be discussed in minute detail. All PSU is saying that just because it looks like a disaster now doesn't mean it's a lock for the next 8 weeks. There are escape hatches to keep an eye out for and until then play golf and stuff. 

This....but I’d favor “head out west and hit the powder”  

 

 

[BristowWx]

That closed upper low is a possible way to get some sneaky snow showers..it’s still there hour 126.  Sneaky snow is fun 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't make is more complicated than it needs to be. For right now we're dunski and there is nothing showing up anywhere that says that's going to change. If/when it does then it will be discussed in minute detail. All PSU is saying that just because it looks like a disaster now doesn't mean it's a lock for the next 8 weeks. There are escape hatches to keep an eye out for and until then play golf and stuff. 

Booo...I don't get the appeal golf...lol (only thing I get any measure of enjoyment out of is the long hole-in-ones! ) But I digress...I've always had the long game in mind for winter. Knowing that the times we score don't usually come until after Jan. 15th...I have no issue punting the first part of January.

[Solution Man]

GFS showing signs around 9 Jan.

[jaydreb]

56 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

GFS showing signs around 9 Jan.

Jan 7th.  Almost a nice little event.  Way too far out to take seriously.  

[Snowy Hibbo]

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/30/north-america-on-the-long-term-30th-december/
 

Looking like a decent chance of snowy weather for the region around the 6th-9th of January, then ridging through mid-January. Potential for more snowfall in early February, per the pattern cycle. More details on the drivers and analysis above  

[LP08]

I know the weeklies suck but I just browsed through them.  Not good.  Maybe some signs of some -epo help after week three but absolutely no help in the artic.  If this is the look in mid February....yikes.

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Weeklies say the pattern over the next 2 weeks is here to stay through mid Feb. 18z gefs is down right hot d15. I think today is rock bottom. Seriously. It can't get much worse. 

Weeklies are often wrong so I'm not saying I beleive it and think we're doomed for 6 weeks. But seeing basically an identical pattern set up for 6 straight weeks isn't fun to look at. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies say the pattern over the next 2 weeks is here to stay through mid Feb. 18z gefs is down right hot d15. I think today is rock bottom. Seriously. It can't get much worse. 

Weeklies are often wrong so I'm not saying I beleive it and think we're doomed for 6 weeks. But seeing basically an identical pattern set up for 6 straight weeks isn't fun to look at. 

Perpetual hot garbage through V-day.

Good thing they are fairly useless, although given the stable look we are seeing on the global ensembles, more believable than usual.

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies say the pattern over the next 2 weeks is here to stay through mid Feb. 18z gefs is down right hot d15. I think today is rock bottom. Seriously. It can't get much worse. 

Weeklies are often wrong so I'm not saying I beleive it and think we're doomed for 6 weeks. But seeing basically an identical pattern set up for 6 straight weeks isn't fun to look at. 

Definitey deflating. Last year the weeklies gave us great looks  after great looks that never materalized. That gives me some hope  that they may not be right past 2 to 3 weeks. Problem is this year its going with persistance.  Looking more and more likely that most of January is toast. I reallly hope we can score a modest event in the short window we have next week.

[cbmclean]

Nose of doom pattern just starting to peak into under 10 days on the EPS.  Maybe one day we'll have a really good pattern show up at d15 and inexorably march forward in time.

 

[BristowWx]

let’s just all log off the site for 5 straight days and make a binding pact not to look at anything weather.  Every thread no members browsing. Then all log back in Saturday and see where we are at.  Who’s with me?

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I know the weeklies suck but I just browsed through them.  Not good.  Maybe some signs of some -epo help after week three but absolutely no help in the artic.  If this is the look in mid February....yikes.

Well, according to PSU's analysis, once that ridge show up, it stays all winter (yuck).  Apparently the one and only way to avoid the doom is to have a stout -NAO.  Since the weeklies are seeing the TPV hovering over the NAO area the whole period, it is therefore bound to predict hot garbage.

So our only hope is simply that an unanticipated NAO pops up at some point.  It is just that simple.  I think Bob was saying that we did have a brief period of NAO blocking pop up in the medium range right around the beginning of the Pac puke, so maybe it can happen again. 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The study indicates that on account of the expanding pool of warm waters, the MJO is spending somewhat more time in the Maritime Continent phases. This would make sense given the ocean-atmosphere-convection linkage.

this answers my (others) questions as to why the MJO wants to get stuck into warm phases.  Makes sense for sure.  Thanks for the insight.

 

[cbmclean]

Just now, BristowWx said:

let’s just all log off the site for 5 straight days and make a binding pact not to look at anything weather.  Every thread no members browsing. Then all log back in Saturday and see where we are at.  Who’s with me?

I really should but I know I don't have the will-power.  I also want to follow the Day 7 - 9 cool shot to see if it can at least throw you guys a bone.

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

let’s just all log off the site for 5 straight days weeks and make a binding pact not to look at anything weather.  Every thread no members browsing. Then all log back in Saturday and see where we are at.  Who’s with me?

There that's better.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I really should but I know I don't have the will-power.  I also want to follow the Day 7 - 9 cool shot to see if it can at least throw you guys a bone.

I don’t think I could unless it was a challenge that everyone did it.  We need some extreme measures in an extreme pattern. 

[cbmclean]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I don’t think I could unless it was a challenge that everyone did it.  We need some extreme measures in an extreme pattern. 

I think I will try to at least get through tomorrow without peeking.