January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[cbmclean]

Come on, let's keep it constructive.  Or else we turn into the New England forum.

[Weather Will]

WB 12z EPS see Member 27 for a glimmer of clown map hope.

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Come on, let's keep it constructive.  Or else we turn into the New England forum.

Actually it is not my place to tell you guys how to run your forum since I am just a guest.  I would just be sad to see the MA forum turn into NE.

[mattie g]

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Everyone is entitled to a forecast if it is based on facts.  It is discouraging when the facts point toward a Warmer pattern, but personal attacks on the messengers are not warranted.

The reality is that we will never again see 2009- 2010 in our lifetimes based on our climatology.  But that does not mean we can’t get a snow storm in the oasis of a crappy pattern sometime before mid-March.  That is why I stay in the game every year until the bitter or perhaps still glorious end.

It’s more unlikely than likely that anyone here will see an 09-10 equivalent in this area again, but it’s not at all impossible.

[Bob Chill]

There's some splitting hairs going on. Nobody can predict months in advance and nobody claims to. However, there are reliable clues that can indicate good and bad well in advance. The AO being the biggest one. Dec is going to finish positive and not by just a little. Forecasts are for that continuing  into Jan. Possibly strongly positive.  For that reason alone we currently have and will continue to have below normal snow chances and well below normal big storm chances for the foreseeable future. That's not a guess. It's a fact. 

[psuhoffman]

If we get a dominant central Pac ridge pattern...there have been 10 January/February warning level snowfall events in our area with that regime, but every one had a pretty significant NAO block.  This is the loading pattern a couple days before those 10 events.  

The point is for that ridge alignment to work would require an equally anomalous NAO block. 

[cbmclean]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's some splitting hairs going on. Nobody can predict months in advance and nobody claims to. However, there are reliable clues that can indicate good and bad well in advance. The AO being the biggest one. Dec is going to finish positive and not by just a little. Forecasts are for that continuing  into Jan. Possibly strongly positive.  For that reason alone we currently have and will continue to have below normal snow chances and well below normal big storm chances for the foreseeable future. That's not a guess. It's a fact. 

GEFS has strong agreement on an initial peak at ~3.5, then a big spread.  Check out the several members showing it go to +5.0.

Also I thought it was hilarious how the second half of December has mostly been negative.  Thanks a bunch, Pacific.

 

 

 

[Solution Man]

66 tomorrow with thunderstorms, D.C. is the new Atlanta

[psuhoffman]

On the other hand...if we assume we will not get any help from the NAO...this is the composite of all snowstorms since 1948 that featured an EPO ridge without NAO/AO help.  Notice the location of the EPO ridge.  It is VERY possible to get a snowstorm from the EPO alone...its actually only slightly below the NAO in terms of if we had to work with only one factor...HOWEVER that EPO ridge must be east based in NW Canada not out over the Pacific.  So if we assume the AO/NAO do not improve we would need that ridge to end up significantly further east than projected currently.  

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

66 tomorrow with thunderstorms, D.C. is the new Atlanta

I think that might even be AN for Atlanta.  

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think that might even be AN for Atlanta.  

Orlando

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS snow....couple of big hits in the individual members...i am not punting the second and third week of January yet...

[frd]

The current AO sums it up.  The numbers and history don't lie.   

From Don S  - here is a  portion of his recent update courtesy 33andrain:

<<

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO to start January, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first week of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables).

　

Some of the newer AO forecasts keep the AO at +2.000 or above through January 10. If so, that development could adversely impact Mid-Atlantic significant snowfall prospects beyond the first week of January.

>>

 

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, frd said:

The current AO sums it up.  The numbers and history don't lie.   

From Don S  - here is a  portion of his recent update courtesy 33andrain:

<<

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO to start January, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first week of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables).

　

Some of the newer AO forecasts keep the AO at +2.000 or above through January 10. If so, that development could adversely impact Mid-Atlantic significant snowfall prospects beyond the first week of January.

>>

 

++AO be damned. Indicators schmindicators. We just cant know. We could very well  have a MA blizzard by Jan 10!. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

++AO be damned. Indicators schmindicators. We just cant know. We could very well  have a MA blizzard by Jan 10!. 

My problem was obviously making my analysis before the eggnog not after. 

[frd]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

++AO be damned. Indicators schmindicators. We just cant know. We could very well  have a MA blizzard by Jan 10!. 

Thats the spirit , craft beers for all and for all a good night ! 

[osfan24]

Far too early to punt this winter, but getting the vibe we may have to pull off a 2016 type event where we get super lucky with timing to salvage this winter at all. Otherwise, it could be like 2016 minus the blizzard.

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Far too early to punt this winter, but getting the vibe we may have to pull off a 2016 type event where we get super lucky with timing to salvage this winter at all. Otherwise, it could be like 2016 minus the blizzard.

So in others words, like 2016 in the SE forum area.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

The current AO sums it up.  The numbers and history don't lie.   

From Don S  - here is a  portion of his recent update courtesy 33andrain:

<<

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO to start January, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first week of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables).

　

Some of the newer AO forecasts keep the AO at +2.000 or above through January 10. If so, that development could adversely impact Mid-Atlantic significant snowfall prospects beyond the first week of January.

>>

 

I personally don't have a problem punting the first or second week of winter...For me, since most of our major snowfalls historically don't come until after that, that's fine. But if this +AO malady eats into the prime period...that WILL be crappy. (man, I hope we can benefit from the solar minimum next year if we can't this year...provided something else in the atmosphere doesn't screw that up too) 

That being said, I'm still hangin' on the every 3-4 year trend for one-footers at BWI--I'll ride that horse till' the streak breaks! It'll be 4 years since 2016...(hey, we got a fluke in 2006 to keep the streak goin, right? )

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If we get a dominant central Pac ridge pattern...there have been 10 January/February warning level snowfall events in our area with that regime, but every one had a pretty significant NAO block.  This is the loading pattern a couple days before those 10 events.  

The point is for that ridge alignment to work would require an equally anomalous NAO block. 

There really hasn’t been a significant NAO block December to March really since 2009-2010? We scored big December 23rd 2009 and February 23rd or so 2010 off a negative NAO.   Correct me if I’m wrong.  Now  of course NAO was negative on October 30th for Sandy 2012.  

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

There really hasn’t been a significant NAO block December to March really since 2009-2010? We scored big December 23rd 2009 and February 23rd or so 2010 off a negative NAO.   Correct me if I’m wrong.  Now  of course NAO was negative on October 30th for Sandy 2012.  

I believe you mean Feb 9-10 (and the flowing Wednesday) 2010?

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

There really hasn’t been a significant NAO block December to March really since 2009-2010? We scored big December 23rd 2009 and February 23rd or so 2010 off a negative NAO.   Correct me if I’m wrong.  Now  of course NAO was negative on October 30th for Sandy 2012.  

I think we have had several recent -NAO episodes in march.  It's kind of a running joke int he SE forum.  I think there may have even been one last year.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

There really hasn’t been a significant NAO block December to March really since 2009-2010? We scored big December 23rd 2009 and February 23rd or so 2010 off a negative NAO.   Correct me if I’m wrong.  Now  of course NAO was negative on October 30th for Sandy 2012.  

Jan 16 had a nice west based -nao

[Rtd208]

Pretty good discussion from DT (WxRisk) in his This Week in Weather video.

 

[yoda]

Swing and a miss Day 9 into Day 10 on the coastal low... but decent cold air abounds on the 00z Euro tonight

[uncletim]

11 hours ago, Mersky said:

I challenge any of you to go back and look at what your weather was in January 2010 mid month. It was very warm and dry and I recall people canceling winter then too. What followed was one of the greatest periods in history. I am not saying a repeat of that is coming. Sure maybe it warms up mid January. Hell it warms up every January. But before then a legit period of cold and maybe snow happens and after it  we have late January, February and March yet. 

I'm mostly a lurker, but I will take this challenge. Back on EasternWX in those days, two of the most knowledgeable and most conservative posters, Don S and Usedtobe, were both quite firm all along that the warm early January pattern would be anomalous and we would return to cold and snow. Others may well have been in the same camp, but it was very unusual for both of them them to be so optimistically certain, so I actually emailed some "pro-snow" friends to say that the best minds were convinced that better times were coming. In certain situations, the good ones, and psu is certainly among them, can read the tea leaves well beyond 10 days.

[attml]

Quote

13 hours ago, Mersky said:

I challenge any of you to go back and look at what your weather was in January 2010 mid month. It was very warm and dry and I recall people canceling winter then too. What followed was one of the greatest periods in history. I am not saying a repeat of that is coming. Sure maybe it warms up mid January. Hell it warms up every January. But before then a legit period of cold and maybe snow happens and after it  we have late January, February and March yet. 

Here you go

[Wonderdog]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

Swing and a miss Day 9 into Day 10 on the coastal low... but decent cold air abounds on the 00z Euro tonight

So the EURO has a Gulf lp move to off the NC coast and then out to sea. Anyone see the EPS

[LP08]

Definitely not much to sugar coat in the long range.  After about a 4 day window of below normal temps next week, about as dismal a pattern showing up on both the EPS and GEFS (I know I am not saying much different than most have been).  Let's hope something works out next week.  

EPS has a smattering of hits but the mean is mostly skewed by a couple bigger storms.

[BristowWx]

Lets hope that trough in the west rolls east after that and we can reshuffle the deck.  you never know.