January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@Ji

This is not a suppressed look. Unless you meant for NYC :

 

why are you posting the 00z euro smh

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

why are you posting the 00z euro smh

Between today's 12z and last night's 0z, I'll take the 12z version any day. Last night was eye candy but it's a moth fart away from being on the rain side. A constant theme this year from medium to short range is less suppression, less cold, less blocking, and more rain. The 12z run had deep entrenched cold and tight spacing. That's the first time I've seen an op try and run precip into a large/established cold airmass in a long time. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

why are you posting the 00z euro smh

Ooops....taking the walk of shame off into the horizon......

[showmethesnow]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro too cold...looks like storm might be suppressed on this run

Maybe, maybe not. Seeing a quick turning of the trough axis which would favor this coming up the coast to a point.

[Solution Man]

[Bob Chill]

12z EPS is showing a legit SE ridge at the end of the run now. Hope the d8-10 deal works out if we're heading to SE Ridgeville

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Maybe, maybe not. Seeing a quick turning of the trough axis which would favor this coming up the coast to a point.

 

 

This is what we are seeing on the surface at the above time frame. The low to key on and with the most potential is sitting down around the Florida Panhandle, not so much the one in WV. The above trough and the surface pressure anomalies below would suggest that this would travel up towards at least OBX if not farther north. But we are talking an op at 10 days so it isn't really worth much.

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Maybe, maybe not. Seeing a quick turning of the trough axis which would favor this coming up the coast to a point.

Hmm, I was looking at the free maps on PV.  Couldn't see the h5 maps.  Not as bad as I thought

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Thanks PSUHoffman 

Maybe it will set up gradient pattern.  SE ridge is money IF you are on the right side.  I assume this one is dog turds if Bob mentioned it.  

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS is showing a legit SE ridge at the end of the run now. Hope the d8-10 deal works out if we're heading to SE Ridgeville

Unless the Atlantic improves I fear that’s very likely what’s coming. That anomalous central pac ridge is on all guidance and it’s supported by the mjo progression and recent history (last year). I fear it’s likeky to be a reality. If so without NAO help that will lead to a huge ridge in the east. Last year we actually had just enough Atlantic help at times to prevent an all our SE ridge fest.  If the AO/NAO stay positive and the pac ridge is real we will torch and it will likely last a long time. 

Im still working on the climo post. Family stuff came up yesterday. But I did finish the analysts of all warning level events going back to 1948. There are some Jan/Feb storms with a strong central pac ridge but they all had extreme NAO help.  Not a single one had a ridge there with no NAO block. Reality is if the guidance is right about the pac pattern pray the NAO flips or were toast.  Ironically I know people are rooting for that pac ridge to shift east but our better chance according to the pattern analogs is for Atlantic blocking to help retrograde that ridge a bit.  It would put a trough into AK and cut off any chance of really cold air but also split the jet out west and let the stj cut under which would give us a fighting chance at snow.

There were a few March events with a pac ridge absent NAO help once wavelengths shorten and funky stuff can happen. But it’s a shutout look in Jan Feb.  Possibly the worst one there is. 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Thanks PSUHoffman 

Yea me seeing where the pattern might be headed made it happen. Lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS is showing a legit SE ridge at the end of the run now. Hope the d8-10 deal works out if we're heading to SE Ridgeville

Like the GEPS ?

[Ji]

12z EPS is showing a legit SE ridge at the end of the run now. Hope the d8-10 deal works out if we're heading to SE Ridgeville

Most depressing run of the year. The se ridge looks immovable and the nao is super positive

[cbmclean]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS is showing a legit SE ridge at the end of the run now. Hope the d8-10 deal works out if we're heading to SE Ridgeville

GEFS and GEPS show identical crap ridges in the east at 384.  So that makes all three major ensembles giving us the finger at that time frame.

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Like the GEPS ?

 

 

Not quite as bad. Interestingly enough, or maybe not so much considering the time of year, the 850 line presides for the most part in southern PA throughout the ridging. So it isn't such an insurmountable mountain to climb to get us on the favorable side of the boundary.

eta: Of course any system amplifying will cut to our west with that look. We would be dependent on weak systems.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS is showing a legit SE ridge at the end of the run now. Hope the d8-10 deal works out if we're heading to SE Ridgeville

Most depressing run of the year. The se ridge looks immovable and the nao is super positive

January thaw after our MECS 

[cbmclean]

That's right my precious, spend as little time as possible in the good phases, and at as low an amplitude as possible.  Then rocket into the COD and exit in the bad phases again.

 

 

[Rtd208]

Larry Cosgrove still holding fairly strong that there won't be much change to a colder and possibly snowier pattern in his longer term outlook until the end of January. Although he did say there could be a colder period early in the new month. All is not lost but his reason for keeping the east coast on the warmer side is the ridging over Cuba and Hispaniola. Also when the pattern does become more favorable for snow in late January he once again mentions the snow chances will increase between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains but did not mention the east coast. So take it for what it is.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, cbmclean said:

That's right my precious, spend as little time as possible in the good phases, and at as low an amplitude as possible.  Then rocket into the COD and exit in the bad phases again.

 

 

Just a week or so ago the MJO had it exiting out of COD into 4 and transversing up through the warm phases through Christmas. Looking above we see that never occurred with it exiting into 6 and moving into the cold phases. So I would probably take what it is showing with a grain of salt. We have to remember that the same models that generate our pretty little maps that we follow and complain about never being right also generate our MJO forecast. 

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Sir you have zero idea where the pattern is headed. Nothing personal but it’s just a fact. You think you do but in reality no one does. Like I said last night and it holds today. Take it ten days at time. Just yesterday you said you weren’t invested in the time period that now  show promise for some cold and snow. Why not relax and just take it one period at a time and not be so gloom and doom all the time?? 

I have been lurking here for years and I do not think it is fair to characterize PSUHoffman as Doom and Gloom.  He describes what he analyzes in the models, independent of his personal desires.  Right now, the long term (past day 10) looks very grim.  I understand that you believe that the models have no use past day 10, but we do not all agree.

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just a week or so ago the MJO had it exiting out of COD into 4 and transversing up through the warm phases through Christmas. Looking above we see that never occurred with it exiting into 6 and moving into the cold phases. So I would probably take what it is showing with a grain of salt. We have to remember that the same models that generate our pretty little maps that we follow and complain about never being right also generate our MJO forecast. 

Certainly, I was just expressing gallows humor.  However, the point can be made that the gloomy scenarios being painted by all three major ensembles is probably related to the crappy MJO pattern being advertised.  Hopefully they are all wrong and we begin a grand tour of the good phases.

[psuhoffman]

 

14 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Sir you have zero idea where the pattern is headed. Nothing personal but it’s just a fact. You think you do but in reality no one does. Like I said last night and it holds today. Take it ten days at time. Just yesterday you said you weren’t invested in the time period that now  show promise for some cold and snow. Why not relax and just take it one period at a time and not be so gloom and doom all the time?? 

I’m still not invested. My opinion isn’t changed by a couple day 9 op runs. There are very few decent snowstorms from the current pattern shown that period. There are a lot of very minor 1-2” type snows in that look. But it’s mostly a cold dry look that usually leads to suppressed sheared our waves followed by a warmup.  Once in a while we get very lucky and I’ll root for that but at long leads climo beats op runs 90% of the time. 

As for your second point. I spent most of Nov and Dec very positive. I thought there were enough positive signs.  In the past I have been very bullish. I have often pointed out looks I felt good about from really long range. Some hit. Some didn’t.  But right now I see things I really don’t like.  You can question my accuracy but at least my thought are authentic. If you want smoke blown up your arse I’m not the right one to look too. 

11 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I am sorry but anyone saying we are toast on December 29th really can’t be taken seriously. Sorry again nothing personal, but winter ends in early March, not late December. 

“if the guidance is right about the pac pattern pray the NAO flips or were toast.”

I assume that is what you’re referencing. Sorry but that’s a factual statement. If that anomalous pac ridge is real and we don’t get some high latitude help history says we have almost no chance of snow of any consequence. 

 

[Wonderdog]

5 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I understand. But you just mentioned the next 10 days. Did you read his post a little while ago? He used  the phrase we are toast  if a and b don’t occur. If this was February 1st I wouldn’t take issue with it. But man, come on, it’s December 29th. There is plenty of time for changes to occur. I believe he is overreacting but from now on I will just read and keep my thoughts to myself 

I've made numerous posts regarding the accuracy of the models but you have to understand that PSU is an EAGLE fan as I am and it's game day for the division. Being a fan of Philly teams can lead to gloom and doom and usually does.

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I understand. But you just mentioned the next 10 days. Did you read his post a little while ago? He used  the phrase we are toast  if a and b don’t occur. If this was February 1st I wouldn’t take issue with it. But man, come on, it’s December 29th. There is plenty of time for changes to occur. I believe he is overreacting but from now on I will just read and keep my thoughts to myself 

I understand your basic points.  His concern is that the particular pattern which MAY develop in the Pacific is one which has historically very persistent when it does occur.  IF it does occur and IF the NA does not play nice, then we will have a very high probability of toast.

Just beware, there is a large portion of the forum which actively likes looking into the 10+ day range and trying to tease patterns to see what MAY be coming.  Sometimes (perhaps most times) little or no value is found.  Other times, however, meaningful predictions can be made.  For example, this current pattern was identified by the EPS well ouside 10 days.

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

30 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I challenge any of you to go back and look at what your weather was in January 2010 mid month. It was very warm and dry and I recall people canceling winter then too. What followed was one of the greatest periods in history. I am not saying a repeat of that is coming. Sure maybe it warms up mid January. Hell it warms up every January. But before then a legit period of cold and maybe snow happens and after it  we have late January, February and March yet. 

Dude.  Really??

You're using the classic El Nino winter with massive early season blocking analogy?  By mid jan. 2010 most of this sub forum had at least 2' of snow.  Really?

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I challenge any of you to go back and look at what your weather was in January 2010 mid month. It was very warm and dry and I recall people canceling winter then too. What followed was one of the greatest periods in history. I am not saying a repeat of that is coming. Sure maybe it warms up mid January. Hell it warms up every January. But before then a legit period of cold and maybe snow happens and after it  we have late January, February and March yet. 

Most of us were on Eastern then. And I remember discussing the chances for snow late/Jan into Feb from well in advance. Yes there was a mild period but even then there were markers. The high latitudes remained conducive. And extreme blocking tends to recycle.  

I haven’t punted anything yet but I stand by what I said. If....We get to mid January and that pac pattern locks in with a raging positive AO were in big trouble. That look has NEVER ended well and it can be very persistent and hard to break out of.  That look has accounted for some of our very worst winters like 2002 and 2012. 

Im not rooting for that. I want snow. But it’s hard to ignore what’s showing up in all guidance. Me saying that look sucks won’t change anything. Hopefully it never comes to that. There are ways out. Maybe the guidance is misplacing the ridge and it ends up creeping into NW Canada over the top. That’s an ok look. Or the NAO could flip suddenly. But we are flirting with what is the absolute worst look we could get for winter prospects on guidance right now imo. That’s based on all past seasons with a similar pattern. If me pointing that out bothers you...well sorry but not sorry .  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Quick, someone post a few clown maps to lighten the mood in here.

[Weather Will]

Everyone is entitled to a forecast if it is based on facts.  It is discouraging when the facts point toward a Warmer pattern, but personal attacks on the messengers are not warranted.

The reality is that we will never again see 2009- 2010 in our lifetimes based on our climatology.  But that does not mean we can’t get a snow storm in the oasis of a crappy pattern sometime before mid-March.  That is why I stay in the game every year until the bitter or perhaps still glorious end.

[Yeoman]

40 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

  I understand that you believe that the models have no use past day 10, but we do not all agree.

That's right.. they have no use past day 5

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Certainly, I was just expressing gallows humor.  However, the point can be made that the gloomy scenarios being painted by all three major ensembles is probably related to the crappy MJO pattern being advertised.  Hopefully they are all wrong and we begin a grand tour of the good phases.

Yeah, I caught on to the gallows humor. 

Now I am not saying I don't believe the MJO depiction and the PAC look. But I am also not necessarily saying I believe them. Just saying I don't know and am in wait and see mode. Some things I am seeing are leading me to believe that we could possibly see that troughing setting up farther east more towards the plains. If that is the case we potentially see the SE ridging morph more into a WAR look which would be more favorable for our cause.