January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Doubt we get an amped up storm which would mean dry slot. If we get an amped phaser then game on for the OV ie cutter city.

Think I would disagree with this. 500's being depicted at this time would suggest any amplification of a low would occur in the East vs. OV. Bigger fear in my mind would possibly be suppression. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

***Just a quick aside.

I know some on here are panicking when they are seeing looks like this at the end of the extended. Maybe hold off on that for a few days because I don't think it is as dire as one may think. Though at this time they may favor 40N they are by no means what I would consider a shutout pattern for us especially considering the time of the year. I would also like to add that it wouldn't take much in the way of adjustments with some features to actually turn this into a somewhat favorable look for us. Will probably post something later today or tomorrow explaining what i am talking about

 

 

 

One thing we need is some tweakage in the EPO domain. Probably need to lose or shift that trough near Okhotsk.

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

One thing we need is some tweakage in the EPO domain. Probably need to lose or shift that trough near Okhotsk.

That's one way. Drop the PV a little farther to the south/southeast is another. Also suggestions of cooperation in the N Atlantic as well. Really wouldn't take much in the way of tweaking with any or all these features to put our region into play as it shifts the boundary a little  farther south. Those in the SE (central/southern VA and south) though are more then likely SOL because we are more then likely going to see that SE ridging rearing its ugly head for them.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

That's one way. Drop the PV a little farther to the south/southeast is another. Also suggestions of cooperation in the N Atlantic as well. Really wouldn't take much in the way of tweaking with any or all these features to put our region into play as it shifts the boundary a little  farther south. Those in the SE (central/southern VA and south) though are more then likely SOL though because we are more then likely going to see that SE ridging rearing its ugly head for them.

Yeah if that ridge stays parked near the Aleutians it will be a big battle to keep the SE ridge from wrecking hopes and dreams of snow weenies in the MA and SE. Hopefully the 'hints' of NA blocking(yet again) we are seeing on guidance is real, and it would likely take a stout west-based block to do the trick unless something significant changes out west.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah if that ridge stays parked near the Aleutians it will be a big battle to keep the SE ridge from wrecking hopes and dreams of snow weenies in the MA and SE. Hopefully the 'hints' of NA blocking(yet again) we are seeing on guidance is real, and it would likely take a stout west-based block to do the trick unless something significant changes out west.

Really not feeling a strong west based -NAO at this time as the models seem pretty insistent on placing the PV in that general local. But it is still workable. Give us some form of central/eastern based -NAO to help shove that pv farther S/SE then currently depicted and we will see the NS suppressed farther south pushing the boundary along with it. The potential is there for a gradient pattern setting up and all we need is to be on the winning side.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

It’s an event yoda.  It’s snow, yoda.  Nobody said it was a blizzard, yoda.  It’s something on the charts that wasn’t there before, yoda.  The other poster said similar to the cmc in that it showed an event, yoda. A thirsty man in the desert savors even a drop of water, yoda.  1.4” is more than 0, yoda. 

LOL!!

In all seriousness, I haven't been able to see the Euro or CMC maps leading up to what they're showing.  But I'll make a slight assumption that despite timing differences and interpretation of how it evolves, they're both pretty well showing what is perhaps the "same" system out in that time range, correct (and not totally different waves, etc.)?  Not that it matters at that range so  much, but it is nice to see *something* on more than one model out there, and I guess the GFS did too, sort of.  As you said, it's an event to consider at this point, which is more than we've had so far.

[Solution Man]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GFS on board. Only 9 days away. Plenty of time to trend better. Besides what could possibly go wrong in 9 days?

 

 

8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

LOL!!

In all seriousness, I haven't been able to see the Euro or CMC maps leading up to what they're showing.  But I'll make a slight assumption that despite timing differences and interpretation of how it evolves, they're both pretty well showing what is perhaps the "same" system out in that time range, correct (and not totally different waves, etc.)?  Not that it matters at that range so  much, but it is nice to see *something* on more than one model out there, and I guess the GFS did too, sort of.  As you said, it's an event to consider at this point, which is more than we've had so far.

Nice to see the board light up again. We've got something with 3 models almost at the same timeframe. Good feel with this one.

[CAPE]

6z GEFS is in for a little something around day 10. Seems to favor southern parts of the region looking at the snow map. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Doubt we get an amped up storm which would mean dry slot. If we get an amped phaser then game on for the OV ie cutter city.

 

57 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think I would disagree with this. 500's being depicted at this time would suggest any amplification of a low would occur in the East vs. OV. Bigger fear in my mind would possibly be suppression. 

Saw your  to my post. I take it you disagree with me? 

I am just not sure how you see a cutter with any amplifying system with the look all 3 models are throwing at us at this time on our possible day 9/10 storm.

 

[LP08]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

6z GEFS is in for a little something around day 10. Seems to favor southern parts of the region looking at the snow map. 

EPS has an ok signal for the same general time frame.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

6z GEFS is in for a little something around day 10. Seems to favor southern parts of the region looking at the snow map. 

12z should give us some clarity on the situation

/s

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z should give us some clarity on the situation

/s

The early Jan period has looked like our first best chance of timing something for some frozen for a while now. Several days ago it looked more like the 4th or 5th, now its a bit later. It is pretty much all we got other than hand wringing over the possibility of an awful pattern that may or may not verify going forward. That said, this modest threat still lies outside of 7 days and could easily evaporate or morph into something much different. As currently depicted by the major globals, it is about as good a look as we can expect given the general 500 mb pattern, and one that favors something tracking underneath with some decent cold air in place.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

It’s an event yoda.  It’s snow, yoda.  Nobody said it was a blizzard, yoda.  It’s something on the charts that wasn’t there before, yoda.  The other poster said similar to the cmc in that it showed an event, yoda. A thirsty man in the desert savors even a drop of water, yoda.  1.4” is more than 0, yoda. 

Lol yoba saying they are not exactly the same cause Timing isn't the same and 850 line 79 miles apart...10 days out

He annoys the f out of me with that sh*t

[stormtracker]

Beggars can't be choosers.   If the model showed 2 to 4  eight days out, imma track it like it's Jan 2016.     Radio show?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Saw your  to my post. I take it you disagree with me? 

I am just not sure how you see a cutter with any amplifying system with the look all 3 models are throwing at us at this time on our possible day 9/10 storm.

 

SE Ridge will increase as lead times shrink as has been common with the -PNA at 8+ day leads or the cold push/trof wont be quite as pronounced. As lead times shrink we will probably see a track close to the coast at around 5 day leads. Like I said "I doubt we get an amped up storm" and we should hope not. As it looks now, plenty of wiggle room, right? I agree with your analysis of the current looks. But as we get within 84 hours we are going to be concerned about a cutter and hoping for a more sheared out wave. Just my thoughts.

[Ralph Wiggum]

While likely partially out to lunch, the ICON is rolling the ridge East in lieu of the amplifying -PNA. I'll save surface extrapolation for the die hards 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

SE Ridge will increase as lead times shrink as has been common with the -PNA at 8+ day leads or the cold push/trof wont be quite as pronounced. As lead times shrink we will probably see a track close to the coast at around 5 day leads. Like I said "I doubt we get an amped up storm" and we should hope not. As it looks now, plenty of wiggle room, right? I agree with your analysis of the current looks. But as we get within 84 hours we are going to be concerned about a cutter and hoping for a more sheared out wave. Just my thoughts.

But SE ridging would be in response to troughing into the SW. We are not currently seeing that. At worst we see the GEFS a little heavy handed with the trough favoring through the Plains. And as far as a -PNA we actually have a neutralish to a slight positive leading into the day 9/10 period. Now could we see the models flip as far as what we are seeing in the West? Sure. But given the progression I am seeing within the NS, carving out the trough farther and farther East, I strongly doubt it. This is a pretty good look setting up for us at this time (eta: when you consider the response we would see if a 50/50 is inserted into this look of which the models are starting to key on, especially the EPS) and it has been improving run over run to boot. I have a sneaky suspicion that we are going to start seeing the models hitting fairly hard on the potential if this look continues. But that said it takes more then a favorable wavelength pattern to score. Much will be dependent on the timing with trailing energy after the initial NS push through the region as well as if we see the NS drop in prematurely and wreck the setup by suppressing the trailing energy.

[frd]

From Ventrice regarding the high amplitude ridge set to build over the North Pac into the Aleutians. 

Keep in mid this development, and the progression from there is way out in time. 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

I agree with @showmethesnow. We have at least 2 pna ridge spikes and EC troughs on tap from 1/5 - 1/10. First one is prob a lost cause as the antecedent conditions suck. The second on is much more interesting and is what both the gefs and eps have as our first legit window.

I don't give a crap what ops say every 6-12 hours as we're still too far away for any type of reasonable accuracy. Keep the window open and maybe something breaks right. We could spend most of Jan chasing progressive troughs. Keep them coming and it will accidentally snow on us

[frd]

 

Looking forward to the afternoon Euro op run today to see whether there is consistency with the robust  -EPO forecast. Again, this is in the time frame of interest  near Jan. 9  th.  

 

 

 

[usedtobe]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

From Ventrice regarding the high amplitude ridge set to build over the North Pac into the Aleutians. 

Keep in mid this development, and the progression from there is way out in time. 

 

 

Looks to me like there is one window around the 7th or 8th with the cold and then troughiness approaching the east coast.   I'd call it partially ajar, far from a perfect pattern but one that could give us something with luck despite the ;latest GFS run taking it away.  Still it's probably a long shot but at least its a shot.  If that window closes, we may have to wait until the second half of January as the Pac ridge is too far west to supply anything but a negative anomaly in the west.  The EPS does build the ridge into ak but towards the end of the run starts pulling it back again.  That's so far outside of the skillful range who really cares.  This pattern suck if you are a winter wx expert that focuses on DC. 

I looked for the AO/4 inch snowstorm graph hoping I had it on a thumb drive but it's not.  I have it on my old PC so I'll look for it down the road.  I need to get all my old excell files on the new PC. 

[frd]

9 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

If that window closes, we may have to wait until the second half of January as the Pac ridge is too far west to supply anything but a negative anomaly in the west.  The EPS does build the ridge into ak but towards the end of the run starts pulling it back again.  That's so far outside of the skillful range who really cares.

Appreciate your thoughts Wes. Wonder if the EPS reaction to pulling the ridge back again towards the end of its run is a consequence of where it thinks the MJO progression will be at that time. But, as you said, too far off to consider anything serious.  Right now the highest ROI might be focusing on the period between Jan. 7 to 9 th.  By that time there should be much more clarity for the second half of Jan.  

[frd]

On a simple " indices only cause and effect " relationship,  I will be interested to see whether anything really does materialize between Jan 7 to the 9 th or even slightly outside of that window. 

@usedtobe research on the - AO and its relationship to significant DC snowstorms is well known and has merit. 

It would then not surprise me to have various models lose the threat.  Whether the threat re-emerges I am not so sure. 

Again, as simple as it may sound, simply basing this on an unfavorable AO phase.  I know it can snow without a -AO, but it will be interesting to see how things pan out for us. Right now the AO looks horrible.   

If the AO trends downward then I feel the threat has more merit. 

Also keep this in mind form HM and Hugo

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

euro too cold...looks like storm might be suppressed on this run

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

euro too cold...looks like storm might be suppressed on this run

Yup .  im good tho .  At least something is still there.

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup .  im good tho .  At least something is still there.

it even snowed in 2001-2002(3 inch storm around jan 10th or something smh....i hope this isnt our only window this winter....and we are high and dry while the carolinas get snow.

[Wonderdog]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro too cold...looks like storm might be suppressed on this run

Even if the extreme cold is on the Canadian border?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup .  im good tho .  At least something is still there.

It's a good TN valley overrunning setup. Shortwaves are pretty tight so amplified is unlikely. I liked the run a lot. Gives us a chance during a rare occurance of a solid antecedent airmass. 

Many of the EPS hits are weak wave/overunning deals. Not surprised to see the op throw one out. Would be nice to be tracking a legit threat under 6 days away. Getting closer...

[showmethesnow]

GEFS actually showed some promise. We are now seeing separation with the neg anomalies. Note the greater neg anomalies through the 50/50 region and those dropping down into the Plains. Also now seeing the slightest hints of ridging between these two features (red circle). One thing we don't want to see in this setup is NS energy running in between these two features (yellow arrow) through where the ridging would setup.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

@Ji

This is not a suppressed look. Unless you meant for NYC :