January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[cbmclean]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS has been gradually upping the odds after the 6th or so. Been a slow crawl from the depths of despair but 12z eps is the best run in a long time. It wouldn't be totally out of bounds to say there may be a legit threat window between 1/7 - 1/10....

EPS leading the way is infinitely more encouraging than GEFS 

[Bob Chill]

If you completely ignore the disgusting -pna and focus soley on the NAO domain... this panel would be encouraging. Even as is it's not that bad. Roll the pacific forward and we have a big storm setup...

 

Gefs and EPS keep hinting that big UK ridge may press into iceland or even greenland. This is the most stout I've seen yet and about the only thing that can save us from the disaster we call the pacific 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you completely ignore the disgusting -pna and focus soley on the NAO domain... this panel would be encouraging. Even as is it's not that bad. Roll the pacific forward and we have a big storm setup...

 

Gefs and EPS keep hinting that big UK ridge may press into iceland or even greenland. This is the most stout I've seen yet and about the only thing that can save us from the disaster we call the pacific 

Looking at all the New Years period comps to this pattern that’s the only realistic save. It wasn’t all bad. Some (about 1/3) of the analogs to this current mess were in went on to a snowy period sometime later in winter. But they all did it the way you described. With an Atlantic ridge that retrogrades forcing the pac jet to split and cut under. I know some are rooting for that pac ridge to shift east (and that would work) but that’s not the most likely way we evolve to a better look according to the analogs. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

EPS leading the way is infinitely more encouraging than GEFS 

That’s good because through day 10 the gfs members don’t look too good to me.

[Bob Chill]

23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s good because through day 10 the gfs members don’t look too good to me.

Next 10 days are essentially a shutout.  Seeing signs of life beyond that but who knows how things will shake out. I say we get snow by mid month for no other reason than having cold around during the heart of Jan requires the least amount of everything else to go right to get some snow. It does look like cold is returning in some fashion. Need a little luck

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

know some are rooting for that pac ridge to shift east (and that would work) but that’s not the most likely way we evolve to a better look according to the analogs.

Some good mets and pros are thinking we really do not achieve any long lasting + PNA from here on out. As 40 70 Benchmark points out he feels it is mostly -PNA tendencies. 

That might work for areas North of us in a cold gradient pattern but I don't put much faith into snowfall for my area in a pattern such as that. 

One could speculate,  with everything evolving  we could morph or transition into a better Pac pattern with corresponding tendencies for a period of a +PNA, but my guess would be later versus soon.  

Any favorable window for cold and snow most likely would be transient in early Jan.  One concern at the moment is figuring out the MJO progression for later in the month.   That and the EPO will most likely guide the sensible weather here in the East after Jan 17 th in my opinion. 

If we were hoping for a strong West based NAO that has a real impact in our area,  I would think later in the season.  We may see a convoluted North Atlantic, along with continued wave breaking,  but based on the NH pattern I simply feel a true West based block is a better bet in Feb. or even later. We still have a ways to go to get any cooperation from the descending QBO as well.  New data will be out early next month that may shed some light on how quickly it is descending.

. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Some good mets and pros are thinking we really do not achieve any long lasting + PNA from here on out. As 40 70 Benchmark points out he feels it is mostly -PNA tendencies. 

I have to agree with that assessment. That’s why I’m stuck on the NAO. Every analog to what we are seeing so far this winter failed to develop into a favorable PNA pattern that winter. Those that did not get NAO help were utter disaster fail years. Those that got “some” NAO help salvaged respectable but still blah totals. A few got excellent blocking periods and had a very snowy period later in winter. Our fate rests in the Atlantic being able to offset the central pac ridge pna trough imo. 

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have to agree with that assessment. That’s why I’m stuck on the NAO. Every analog to what we are seeing so far this winter failed to develop into a favorable PNA pattern that winter. Those that did not get NAO help were utter disaster fail years. Those that got “some” NAO help salvaged respectable but still blah totals. A few got excellent blocking periods and had a very snowy period later in winter. Our fate rests in the Atlantic being able to offset the central pac ridge pna trough imo. 

Relying on the NAO is a scary place to be this decade.

 

[cbmclean]

Just now, Mersky said:

No one, I mean no one knows what the pacific will look like in mid January on. Some think they do but they really don’t. 

That is true.  I don't think anyone who is responsible will claim to "know".  But right now it appears that the preponderance of the evidence favors a higher probability of the Pacific being hostile for the long term.

[cbmclean]

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The best feature on the euro op is the PNA ridge position. If that rolls forward then it's a decent east coast snow pattern. Problem is that it's a 10 day op run so the chances of the d10 panel being correct is a tiny sliver above 0%. 

The flip to a more conducive winter wx pattern is holding in time though. It might be 10 days away but it's not getting pushed out in time... yet

Right now, latest GEFS shows return to cool anomalies in the east around 228.  GEPS a little slower at 234 or so.  I can't see 2m EPS anomalies on TT, but at 850, cool anomalies in place by 216.

[WinterWxLuvr]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have to agree with that assessment. That’s why I’m stuck on the NAO. Every analog to what we are seeing so far this winter failed to develop into a favorable PNA pattern that winter. Those that did not get NAO help were utter disaster fail years. Those that got “some” NAO help salvaged respectable but still blah totals. A few got excellent blocking periods and had a very snowy period later in winter. Our fate rests in the Atlantic being able to offset the central pac ridge pna trough imo. 

Right now that ridge looks persistent but I’m gonna hope that persistence can only last song long in weather.

[cbmclean]

45 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Here are the eps at 240 hours. That is a lot of cold 850’s covering North America. The first ingredient for snow is the cold. So we get it for awhile. So let’s focus on this period before we worry about what happens next. 

I can agree with that.

[Prestige Worldwide]

0z gfs still bringing the cold on Jan 7th

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Needs some work but it’s a start 

The cold keeps reloading on the GFS after the 5th. What a cold but dry run. There were alot of energy running around on this run but there wouldn't be any storm threat if it's this cold

[MJO812]

Check out the cmc at 228-240. please god.

[MJO812]

Euro is similiar ^

[stormtracker]

Euro says hello CMC at 240.   Nice event

[yoda]

55 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is similiar ^

Not really... nice try though... Euro starts to get precip into DCA after 234 while the CMC is already moving on out at 240

[yoda]

55 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro says hello CMC at 240.   Nice event

Hello for i81 corridor into W MD... DCA is at 1.4"

850 line is crossing into EZF so better be some kind of jump coming

ETA:  I mean, yes, better than nothing, and yes, kinda sorta looks like the CMC, but CMC was full fledged snow event... EURO is just starting and even looking at the MSLP anomaly panels... I can't really see a jump coming

[Weather Will]

WB 0z EPS Jan 7  upper air:  appears there  continues to be opportunity during the 7-10 period as previously discussed.  I am wondering if the trough east of Hawaii (Assuming that is correct) should translate into more ridging in Alaska than shown...at least there is now something to watch!

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z GFS on board. Only 9 days away. Plenty of time to trend better. Besides what could possibly go wrong in 9 days when we are dealing with a hostile Pac and trying to work with tiny windows of opportunity?

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GFS on board. Only 9 days away. Plenty of time to trend better. Besides what could possibly go wrong in 9 days when we are dealing with a hostile Pac and trying to work with tiny windows of opportunity?

 

Speaking of hostile Pac, and for those who like to use the term "blocking", that advertised EPAC ridge near the Aleutians is a monster of a block in the the LR. The GEFS attempts to build some ridging into the NAO domain(EPS not so much) later in the run, .but it would literally take a strong NA block to counter that beast out in the Pacific in order to get lower heights into the eastern US.

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Speaking of hostile Pac, and for those who like to use the term "blocking", that advertised EPAC ridge hear the Aleutians is a monster of a block in the the LR. The GEFS attempts to build some ridging into the NAO domain(EPS not so much) later in the run, .but it would literally take a strong NA block to counter that beast out in the Pacific in order to get lower heights into the eastern US.

Amazing. That block is reminiscent of the epic NAO blocks we saw at range last year that kept fading. This will be the look that holds tho and probably ends up being even stronger lol. Block near Scandinavia isnt bad but need that to move into the NAO region.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Is that the Nina looks that several have stated January is evolving towards? Ie ridge N of Hawaii extending towards the Aleutians and West Coast trof?

[Wonderdog]

Finally something we can get our teeth into in a couple of Mondays! Yes it's presently depicted as a weaker type of system and the rain/snow line is precariously close to the District but we'll take it. Any possibility that this system can slow down some?

[stormtracker]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

Hello for i81 corridor into W MD... DCA is at 1.4"

850 line is crossing into EZF so better be some kind of jump coming

ETA:  I mean, yes, better than nothing, and yes, kinda sorta looks like the CMC, but CMC was full fledged snow event... EURO is just starting and even looking at the MSLP anomaly panels... I can't really see a jump coming

It’s an event yoda.  It’s snow, yoda.  Nobody said it was a blizzard, yoda.  It’s something on the charts that wasn’t there before, yoda.  The other poster said similar to the cmc in that it showed an event, yoda. A thirsty man in the desert savors even a drop of water, yoda.  1.4” is more than 0, yoda. 

[Ji]

6z GFS on board. Only 9 days away. Plenty of time to trend better. Besides what could possibly go wrong in 9 days when we are dealing with a hostile Pac and trying to work with tiny windows of opportunity?
 

 

That dry slot looks damaging

[Ji]

It’s an event yoda.  It’s snow, yoda.  Nobody said it was a blizzard, yoda.  It’s something on the charts that wasn’t there before, yoda.  The other poster said similar to the cmc in that it showed an event, yoda. A thirsty man in the desert savors even a drop of water, yoda.  1.4” is more than 0, yoda. 

Lol yoba saying they are not exactly the same cause Timing isn't the same and 850 line 79 miles apart...10 days out

[showmethesnow]

Thought for the last couple of days that the period, what is roughly now centered on day 9/10, had some promise on the ensembles. From what I am seeing the models are starting to pick up steam on that idea. The EPS, GEFS, and the GEPS all vary somewhat on the general setup leading into this window (in particular the initial NS drop, placement and timing) but they all agree on two key features that open up this window. And that is rotating a low, induced from the initial NS push into the east, through the 50/50 region around day 8 as well as trailing NS and Pac stream energy. Now all 3 models vary somewhat on the evolution but they all show potential none the less. Now at this point the smoothing we see at the somewhat longer ranges on the ensembles is somewhat muting the look here but the fact that we are now seeing the ops with their finer detail picking up on a storm is very promising. 

Thought I would throw up one map from the EPS that showed what I thought was the most promise though I am not taking away from the other two models that showed promise in slightly different ways. Now what we have is the vort map at 500's here. Notice that we are seeing strong returns in both the 50/50 region as well as to our SW. Now this is where the smoothing/conflicting signals comes into play as we are also seeing somewhat strong returns just off the coast (blue circle). This is some of the ensemble members seeing a storm (probably some form of a Miller B from NS energy riding on the coattails of the initial NS energy and blowing that up). Now this suggests that the EPS is seeing two camps here. But take the Miller B camp out of the equation and instead of the smooth height lines we see running through the east and off the coast what we in fact would have is an amplification of the pattern with ridging developing between the 50/50 energy and the energy to our SW. We would also probably see a deeper drop of the trough associated with that SW energy. Needless to say that look would be a very promising one for the mid-Atlantic.

 

Now seeing as some on here want predictions (ahem.... @leesburg 04  ) I will go out on a limb here, at least as far as one can go on a day 9/10 forecast. If we see the models continue with the idea of a 50/50 rotating through on the lead up as well as PAC/NS energy lagging behind I strongly believe we will see a storm here in the east.  Now whether it is a Miller B earlier in the period or a southern/coastal low later is still up for debate. BUT..... if we can keep NS energy from running interference between the 50/50 and the energy running behind a day or two later there is potential here for a fairly significant storm for our region and up to our NE as a low to our SW has the potential to go Coastal.

 

***Just a quick aside.

I know some on here are panicking when they are seeing looks like this at the end of the extended. Maybe hold off on that for a few days because I don't think it is as dire as one may think. Though at this time they may favor 40N they are by no means what I would consider a shutout pattern for us especially considering the time of the year. I would also like to add that it wouldn't take much in the way of adjustments with some features to actually turn this into a somewhat favorable look for us. Will try to post something later today or tomorrow explaining what I am talking about.

 

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GFS on board. Only 9 days away. Plenty of time to trend better. Besides what could possibly go wrong in 9 days when we are dealing with a hostile Pac and trying to work with tiny windows of opportunity?
 

 

That dry slot looks damaging

Doubt we get an amped up storm which would mean dry slot. If we get an amped phaser then game on for the OV ie cutter city.