January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Why can’t there be analysis without some people exaggerating it to extremes. Good or bad. When someone says the pattern looks good suddenly they promised a blizzard. When someone says it looks bad suddenly they cancelled winter. Nobody punted January today. I’m glad HM is optimistic. But he also thought it would snow around the holidays.   He did nail the -AO period but he missed the pac muting it’s impact.  He also missed the AO then going positive again before the pac relaxed. No one is perfect. I say that because the only thing people said, including myself, was that if (somehow everyone misses the if) we get a prolonged central pac ridge with +AO/NAO pattern that’s a really bad sign for winter. And guess what it is. Doesn’t mean we will. Long range guidance is wrong a lot. But if 15 days from now we’re dealing with that look, HM is probably wrong and this winter is toast.  

But im not against him.  I want it to snow.  I hope he is right!  But seeing a huge central pac ridge and +AO develop as we head into January isnt a good thing.  Anyone who thinks that’s no big deal is kidding themselves.  But we still have a long way to go before it’s time to give up.  

 

Based on all the information you have at your disposal, together with your years of experience, what is your conclusion about the probability of the Doom pattern verifying at approximately the level of doom being depicted now?  For example, in the CPC long 1 - 7 and 8 - 14 day out looks, they assign a measure of confidence ranging from 1 - 5 based on numerous factors

[Ji]

Haha yeah. I’d punt 10 straight winters to see a March 93 happen in January.
But I agree. Probably a 500 year storm.

No you wouldn't

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely a 96' will . .....93' on the otherhand...never imo . I've said before I feel lucky to have witnessed that one 

Middle of afternoon 93 was a world Ive not seen before or since.

[Ji]

Middle of afternoon 93 was a world Ive not seen before or since.

It was sleeting for u

[Ji]

Gefs with a winter saving retrograding nao d 10-16 building

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Gefs with a winter saving retrograding nao d 10-16 building

That’s literally our only realistic way to salvage the pac look this year. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Based on all the information you have at your disposal, together with your years of experience, what is your conclusion about the probability of the Doom pattern verifying at approximately the level of doom being depicted now?  For example, in the CPC long 1 - 7 and 8 - 14 day out looks, they assign a measure of confidence ranging from 1 - 5 based on numerous factors

First let me clarify the point I was making based on history  

1.  If we get a strong central pac ridge the first half of Jan, that is highly likely to persist most of winter. 

2.  That pattern can only work if we get blocking

3.  If signs of blocking don’t show up by mid January it’s highly unlikely things improve. History suggests years where blocking helped it showed up by mid January. 

So while im not punting anything now, if we get to say January 10th and we’ve been in a persistent central pac ridge +AO/NAO regime and guidance shows no light at the end of the tunnel then at that point yes I would say shut out the lights wrt realistic hope this season ends well. Still could get a fluke storm but chances of hitting climo would be extremely slim. 

What is my confidence that is what happens...

2/5 maybe. My gut still says this shouldn’t be a dumpster fire year.  Historically enso neutral years with our qbo and north pac sst profile have been decent to good. There were some hints of a way out of that fate on guidance today. On the other hand climate changes may have rendered the analogs useless. Enso neutral years have been skewing less snowy lately. And I can’t ignore the evidence right in front of me wrt the pac pattern and the long term lack of blocking. I won’t pretend I’m not a lot less optimistic now than 2 weeks ago. So I guess right now I’m just waiting to see what the next 2 weeks shows this winter to be with an open mind. But unlike years when I argued we could easily pull a late save, history suggests the pattern guidance has been showing lately is not the kind of thing we recover from if that sets in for any appreciable amount of time. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Gefs with a winter saving retrograding nao d 10-16 building

EPS is less enthusiastic but it did take a baby step away from the ledge imo. Slightly better ridging into AK. Some hints at improvement on the Atlantic side.  

[Weather Will]

WB EPS Control Day 11...Looks like the week after New Years there is still some hope.

[Wonderdog]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS Control Day 11...Looks like the week after New Years there is still some hope.

That would be a nice storm for the MA. Take some people off the ledge.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

First let me clarify the point I was making based on history  

1.  If we get a strong central pac ridge the first half of Jan, that is highly likely to persist most of winter. 

2.  That pattern can only work if we get blocking

3.  If signs of blocking don’t show up by mid January it’s highly unlikely things improve. History suggests years where blocking helped it showed up by mid January. 

So while im not punting anything now, if we get to say January 10th and we’ve been in a persistent central pac ridge +AO/NAO regime and guidance shows no light at the end of the tunnel then at that point yes I would say shut out the lights wrt realistic hope this season ends well. Still could get a fluke storm but chances of hitting climo would be extremely slim. 

What is my confidence that is what happens...

2/5 maybe. My gut still says this shouldn’t be a dumpster fire year.  Historically enso neutral years with our qbo and north pac sst profile have been decent to good. There were some hints of a way out of that fate on guidance today. On the other hand climate changes may have rendered the analogs useless. Enso neutral years have been skewing less snowy lately. And I can’t ignore the evidence right in front of me wrt the pac pattern and the long term lack of blocking. I won’t pretend I’m not a lot less optimistic now than 2 weeks ago. So I guess right now I’m just waiting to see what the next 2 weeks shows this winter to be with an open mind. But unlike years when I argued we could easily pull a late save, history suggests the pattern guidance has been showing lately is not the kind of thing we recover from if that sets in for any appreciable amount of time. 

Thanks for this, PSU! A very good comment and well-reasoned post about what to look out for and what historically occurs if the Pacific remains stubbornly ugly still in about 2 weeks or so. I'm optimistic too, that at least we won't have a total dumpster fire in the end. For now anyway! 

You make an interesting point too about whether climate change renders a lot of analogues somewhat moot. Along that line I think some time back you suggested that some of the older analogues that pop up might not be as useful now as they once were. I think that would be an interesting area to investigate, and wonder when various analogue years or time periods sort of "time out" now. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS snow mean.  20 percent of the individual members have big hits.

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS snow mean.  20 percent of the individual members have big hits.

Keep hope alive, good way to start the new decade

[Bob Chill]

Still at least 7-10 days of dead space to get through but ens are def trending towards at least normal snow chances beginning sometime around the 5-7th. I don't see any chance before then unfortunately. 

[psuhoffman]

12z GEFS really degraded our snow chances day 10-15. Lost the eastern Canada ridging idea. It’s building a better Atlantic pattern way out at day 16 but it pushed the process back 5 days, back to fantasy range again. Perhaps it’s the right idea but was rushing it but until I see the eps move that way I am skeptical.  EPS has been crushing the GEFS lately. 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GEFS really degraded our snow chances day 10-15. Lost the eastern Canada ridging idea. It’s building a better Atlantic pattern way out at day 16 but it pushed the process back 5 days, back to fantasy range again. Perhaps it’s the right idea but was rushing it but until I see the eps move that way I am skeptical.  EPS has been crushing the GEFS lately. 

There's really not much to analyze right now. Full agreement on the next 7-10 days and it's not pretty. When/how we get out of the shutout will prob take on many shapes and sizes over the next week. The only important thing to track (imo) is the date where we're actually back in the game 1/6-1/7 seems to be holding in time for now. Hurry up and wait is all we got

[frd]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS has been crushing the GEFS lately

Well,  two things I came across that you are aware of, but cool to mention, per BAMWX.

1 GEFS is too robust in its HDD forecast at the end of its runs, at least in the last couple weeks. 

2 EPS  has forecasted a declining EPO several times in varying degrees, but corrected back. 

 

 

[Waiting on snow]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GEFS really degraded our snow chances day 10-15. Lost the eastern Canada ridging idea. It’s building a better Atlantic pattern way out at day 16 but it pushed the process back 5 days, back to fantasy range again. Perhaps it’s the right idea but was rushing it but until I see the eps move that way I am skeptical.  EPS has been crushing the GEFS lately. 

We went through this last year. And every year for a decade it seems. Any kind of favorable Atlantic during winter is always 15 days away and never verifies. A -NAO in winter is a pipe dream anymore. Luckily you guys live up north where you'll still get some snow eventually. I may get blanked for the first time in history and not even be able to muster a flake with my already pathetic 4.7 inch normal.

[cbmclean]

If I understand correctly, a vaguely -EPO type look on the 0z EPS at 240.  Impressive extent for 850 negative anomalies, although centered towards the western Great lakes, with very muted anomalies in my neck of the woods.  Somewhat better for you guys, but still too far west for our tastes.  Probably dry though?  Sad +NAO as usual.

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

[Ralph Wiggum]

Been at work but quick glance LR on GfS and Euro have that January 87 feel. That is all.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

Euro is close day 10. Low off the southeast coast. Plenty cold enough. Probably would escape East but something to watch at least 

The best feature on the euro op is the PNA ridge position. If that rolls forward then it's a decent east coast snow pattern. Problem is that it's a 10 day op run so the chances of the d10 panel being correct is a tiny sliver above 0%. 

The flip to a more conducive winter wx pattern is holding in time though. It might be 10 days away but it's not getting pushed out in time... yet

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Been at work but quick glance LR on GfS and Euro have that January 87 feel. That is all.

Might want to stop buy an optometrist on the way home from work 

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Might want to stop buy an optometrist on the way home from work 

I do need a new lens script, so you're not wrong. I saw Jan 6 gfs surface had a low flare up along a front and create a wide stripe.of snow in the interior then saw the euro a day later showed similar farther S. Could see how that resembles the late Jan 25-26 look. Overall pattern tho looks like we are backing into that window and will require some much needed luck.

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Might want to stop buy an optometrist on the way home from work 

Actually HM did make a vague mention about something in the pattern looking "sorta like"the "transitions" at the end of Dec 1986 and Dec 1982 for the Januaries that followed...lol (of course I could be reading a bit too much into it)

 

[WxUSAF]

Don’t know about after D10, but I like the Eps longwave pattern from D8-10 better than the GEFS. Deeper okhotsk low pumps a larger WPO/EPO ridge which gets the trough axis over NA better for us. Also a weaker TPV (and somewhat split) on the Eps as well as a stronger Scandinavian ridge. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Positive signs today...jumpers please step back from the ledge.

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know about after D10, but I like the Eps longwave pattern from D8-10 better than the GEFS. Deeper okhotsk low pumps a larger WPO/EPO ridge which gets the trough axis over NA better for us. Also a weaker TPV (and somewhat split) on the Eps as well as a stronger Scandinavian ridge. 

It looks good through day 12 then reverts to this

bwfore that there was a significant improvement with several big hits and numerous small ones in the day 10-13 range. I am hesitant though because it’s got the kind of gradient look that teases us day 10 only to become congrats upper Midwest and New England come game time.

But the look at the end has a silver lining. The tpv is vacating Greenland and it’s easy to envision  ridging building into the NAO space after that given the evolution day 13-15. Honestly imo that’s our best chance at a sustained favorable pattern. Imo the pac has shown it’s cards and frankly it’s a similar pattern to last year. The wpo/epo ridge is likely to remain a bit west of where we need it absent any blocking. But the qbo is more favorable this year so if we can a period of NAO help that pac becomes workable.  I’m hopeful we see signs of the next -NAM period showing soon. 

[dallen7908]

Looks like we may say goodbye to the 50s/60s beginning on the 6th with perhaps the highest 15-day snowfall mean from the EPS this season (3" with 2 HEC-like amount for immediate dC area)

PNA negative throughout but some hope for a negative EPS too

NAO positive for the  next 10-14 days or so but could be negative late in the period

Hopefully, this improving pattern has legs; however the 3-4 week outlook from CPC issued yesterday calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation. 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

EPS has been gradually upping the odds after the 6th or so. Been a slow crawl from the depths of despair but 12z eps is the best run in a long time. It wouldn't be totally out of bounds to say there may be a legit threat window between 1/7 - 1/10....