January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[psuhoffman]

@WEATHER53

and im not crapping on old school methodology. A sound understanding of the basics is a good foundation.  But there is a reason we progressed. It’s amaxing what old timers were able to do but truth is accuracy sucked before NWP. There were huge busts at very short leads regularly. And forget even trying to nail a pattern from 2-3 weeks out. They had a hard enough time with 2-3 days. Now I’m not blasting them. They were severely limited in what they could do. Sorry but the human brain can’t possibbly handle all the variables that influence the atmosphere at long leads. So I’m not even sure what you are advocating!  That we go back to pre NWP methodology when there was often no advance warning for major weather events?  

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill There are some signs the NAO could be starting to flip again out towards day 15. Way too far out to buy anything but it’s hope at least. 

[Weather Will]

My recollection is that most of the long range forecasts were calling for a warmer December.  I was happy to get my two inches in the first three weeks of the month which turned out close to average.  What will be interesting is whether we see any sustained cold in January through March which would obviously give us snow hopes during peak climo.  WatchIng for any sustained troughing east of Hawaii and for ridging over Alaska.  I an also following the MJO.  It takes some luck to get snowstorms but we need the cold air first.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m surprised 96-97 isn’t in there.  I seem to recall some sort of massive central Pac ridge that screwed us but maybe it was further north.  It may have been an Aleutian/Bering block which can be bad too 

I remember 96-97 because of the frigid cold in the northern plains and Rockies that would not move east or south

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I remember 96-97 because of the frigid cold in the northern plains and Rockies that would not move east or south

I was in the rockies that year and 2 things happened I'll never forget... my hands literally froze to the steering wheel of my truck and a tear froze my eyelashes together and I couldn't open my eye until I pulled the ice off. Don't remember exact lowest temps but -30 to -35 was common

[WinterWxLuvr]

Remember that anomalous ridge north of Alaska a while back? It’s interesting to me that as soon as that area froze up the ridge was replaced with an anomalous area of low heights. I don’t understand any correlation and it could be coincidental but it is interesting nonetheless 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I was in the rockies that year and 2 things happened I'll never forget... my hands literally froze to the steering wheel of my truck and a tear froze my eyelashes together and I couldn't open my eye until I pulled the ice off. Don't remember exact lowest temps but -30 to -35 was common

I remember waiting until about 2 pm to watch the weather channel extended outlook. They updated that every day about that time. I would hope to see that cold air move East and it would always be stuck in time out there. It was very frustrating.

[cbmclean]

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think @Bob Chilland @psuhoffman mentioned this before.  Worth a read:

 

 

So are we heading to what they would classify as an Arctic Low?

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Remember that anomalous ridge north of Alaska a while back? It’s interesting to me that as soon as that area froze up the ridge was replaced with an anomalous area of low heights. I don’t understand any correlation and it could be coincidental but it is interesting nonetheless 

I was thinking “if that warm water really is driving that what happens when it finally freezes over”. Well....

[poolz1]

The ridging across N Can started showing up on ens a runs ago and ops now have it...seems to gaining some legs.  Could open up a nice window as it forces the TPV under it.  This GFS run the TPV turn on it's belly creating a nice broad trough.  Who knows how it will eventually play out but could even block something that amplifies.

[Wonderdog]

At hour 246 on the 18Z run, does it look like a storm may develop in the middle of the country using the H5 map?

[cbmclean]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was thinking “if that warm water really is driving that what happens when it finally freezes over”. Well....

I was thinking that the ice would still be much thinner than normal there and thus subject to higher heat flux from the water.  Apparently not enough to maintain a ridge.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

At hour 246 on the 18Z run, does it look like a storm may develop in the middle of the country using the H5 map?

I'm not seeing that. Better look around 300hrs with the PV setting up as a 50/50. OP at range tho....futile analysis.

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm not seeing that. Better look around 300hrs with the PV setting up as a 50/50. OP at range tho....futile analysis.

Yep OP run at range but it shows how we could get an overrunnning event with cold air in place and moisture heading towards us. Just have to hope the cold is deep enough so we can get some front end love prior to a switch over.

[psuhoffman]

There are some hints in the long range the PV might retreat across the pole. That’s far from ideal and would limit cold potential BUT it would allow ridging across Canada and I would take that wrt snowfall mid winter than the pac ridge raging +AO combo. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

There are some hints in the long range the PV might retreat across the pole. That’s far from ideal and would limit cold potential BUT it would allow ridging across Canada and I would take that wrt snowfall mid winter than the pac ridge raging +AO combo. 

As I mentioned I am embarking on the process of trying to seriously lead to read the charts.  I was looking at the 12z EPS at 240 and could not see a TPV at all.  Am I missing it?  Got a new tablet and I haven't yet figured how to copy and paste images or I would share it.I

By the way what site do you use for model output?

[frd]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Models in the medium to longer range really Do Not predict weather but rather give varying examples of it.

It is a proven fact the EPS first identified this warm-up evolution a while back. Some thought the EPS might have been incorrect this go around, as it had previously reversed course to a colder GEFS outcome earlier in the Fall.  However, the GEFS, CFS and other American models all trended to the warmer EPS solution. No surprises here, as alluded to by psu and others. 

[LP08]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

As I mentioned I am embarking on the process of trying to seriously lead to read the charts.  I was looking at the 12z EPS at 240 and could not see a TPV at all.  Am I missing it?  Got a new tablet and I haven't yet figured how to copy and paste images or I would share it.I

By the way what site do you use for model output?

TPV is parked over Greenland.

[Bob Chill]

Heh, 18z gefs is a straight weenie run d10-16. All the hits are during that time. I scanned the members and most hits are coastals and not improbable weird crap.

 

Prob a random blip as it came out of nowhere or... the gefs just discovered utopia

[WxUSAF]

@Bob Chill, not sure if this is the evolution the GEFS is picking up, but I think there’s a window for frozen from around the 5th through the 10-11th. Seems the Eps and other runs today support a cold shot in that window. Best snow shot is probably as that cold air lifts out. Maybe a smaller chance on the front end of the cold air, but best chance probably at the end. Way too far out for any details, but maybe GEFS is showing that general potential.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

As I mentioned I am embarking on the process of trying to seriously lead to read the charts.  I was looking at the 12z EPS at 240 and could not see a TPV at all.  Am I missing it?  Got a new tablet and I haven't yet figured how to copy and paste images or I would share it.I

By the way what site do you use for model output?

It’s over Greenland.  I have used TT, USModels, wxbell at various times. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chill, not sure if this is the evolution the GEFS is picking up, but I think there’s a window for frozen from around the 5th through the 10-11th. Seems the Eps and other runs today support a cold shot in that window. Best snow shot is probably as that cold air lifts out. Maybe a smaller chance on the front end of the cold air, but best chance probably at the end. Way too far out for any details, but maybe GEFS is showing that general potential.

Starting to see a trend towards some sort of weird hudson/quebec blocking ridge splitting flow and suppressing storm track in the mid latitudes. That and the UK ridge pushing polward is helping block the Atlantic. It's an odd type of setup but workable...

 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill it’s a convoluted way to do it but the gefs manages a good look by building just enough ridging in eastern Canada to act as a bootleg block. The other key is this run backed off on the pac ridge just enough to allow the pv to pull back and allow that ridging. The changes were subtle but all in the right way to bootleg our way out of the disaster scenario. Fantasy land though. But I suppose looks like that show there is a way to avoid the doomsday look I posted earlier today!

ETA: you ninja’d me 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I was going to post this afternoon that I think we get a warning level winter event before the 10th. Nothing scientific at all, just a hunch. Whether it’s snow or a mixed bag, no idea. I think my rationale is the cold intrusion being shown late in the model runs.

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It seems like just yesterday...96' Blizzard on Jan 6th dumped between 30-34" here at temps between 12-18 degrees .

It’ll happen again. Just gotta live long enough.

[cbmclean]

57 minutes ago, LP08 said:

TPV is parked over Greenland.

Thanks.  The TT color scheme makes it much less obvious.  I was also expecting a tighter gradient.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Mersky said:

For Ji who was concerned that HM had given up on winter. Also for those who punted January today or admitted they thought the winter was going to be a dud 

Why can’t there be analysis without some people exaggerating it to extremes. Good or bad. When someone says the pattern looks good suddenly they promised a blizzard. When someone says it looks bad suddenly they cancelled winter. Nobody punted January today. I’m glad HM is optimistic. But he also thought it would snow around the holidays.   He did nail the -AO period but he missed the pac muting it’s impact.  He also missed the AO then going positive again before the pac relaxed. No one is perfect. I say that because the only thing people said, including myself, was that if (somehow everyone misses the if) we get a prolonged central pac ridge with +AO/NAO pattern that’s a really bad sign for winter. And guess what it is. Doesn’t mean we will. Long range guidance is wrong a lot. But if 15 days from now we’re dealing with that look, HM is probably wrong and this winter is toast.  

But im not against him.  I want it to snow.  I hope he is right!  But seeing a huge central pac ridge and +AO develop as we head into January isnt a good thing.  Anyone who thinks that’s no big deal is kidding themselves.  But we still have a long way to go before it’s time to give up.  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 But seeing a huge central pac ridge and +AO develop as we head into January isnt a good thing.  Anyone who thinks that’s no big deal is kidding themselves.  But we still have a long way to go before it’s time to give up.  

 

Agree with this. Which is why I'm taking the GEFS snowfall means later in the LR with a grain of salt. All ens means are strengthening and anchoring the central PAC ridge and any sign of a -AO appears transient and more a function of the PV wobbling around the HL. Like you said, plenty of time but the looks we are seeing certainly arent giving me a warm fuzzy feeling right now. Normally I would say meh its post 240 hours but when the ens are unanimous irt specific features....

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely a 96' will . .....93' on the otherhand...never imo . I've said before I feel lucky to have witnessed that one 

Haha yeah. I’d punt 10 straight winters to see a March 93 happen in January.

But I agree. Probably a 500 year storm.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agree with this. Which is why I'm taking the GEFS snowfall means later in the LR with a grain of salt. All ens means are strengthening and anchoring the central PAC ridge and any sign of a -AO appears transient and more a function of the PV wobbling around the HL. Like you said, plenty of time but the looks we are seeing certainly arent giving me a warm fuzzy feeling right now. Normally I would say meh its post 240 hours but when the ens are unanimous irt specific features....

Looking at tropical tidbits, I only see the EPS out to 240.  But I saw on Wikipedia that it goes out to 15 days, and I think I have seen others discuss the bad pattern showign up in the EPS post-240.  Does TT only have access to truncated amounts of EPS data?