January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs also

Well that’s good news. See it’s gonna be fine.  Until about 230 am when the EPS says pump your breaks there fellas

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs also

When does the GFS/GEFS not show big time cold in the long range?

I am still looking forward to that Jacksonville blizzard.

[Solution Man]

Perhaps Atlanta up to Spartanburg lol

[tombo82685]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Well that’s good news. See it’s gonna be fine.  Until about 230 am when the EPS says pump your breaks there fellas

EPS show it too, they have a good cold shot in the jan 6-10 period before we go into a la nina pattern

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

EPS show it too, they have a good cold shot in the jan 6-10 period before we go into a la nina pattern

Roger.  And who knows what happens day 15 anyway.  We can roll with this for now. 

[psuhoffman]

@frd only issue I have is the “Nina” thing. We have most definitely not been in a typical Nina pattern. 

December H5 for Nina’s in the last 25 years

This December 

The coming pattern does resemble a Jan Nina profile a bit more, at least wrt the central pac ridge, but it still has some massive differences in other places such as the WPO and STJ departments. It’s a weird hybrid pattern. It’s a crap look. It’s actually way worse than a typical Nina look honestly. Lol 

Perhaps Tom was only referring to the similarities wrt the central pac ridge and didn’t want to explain all that.  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, the D10 looks not half bad, all things considered.  But that D15 that @psuhoffman showed is an absolute shite look...or, as he put it "exactly the opposite of what we want".  Strangely, I can see how this relatively decent D10 can morph into what PSU showed for 5 days later, if that ridging extending into the Aleutians doesn't move east very much or at all.  The trough in the east would just get pushed out eventually, I guess, as that Aleutian ridge forces a deeper west coast trough.  And we don't even need to say how lousy the NAO region is.

(ETA:  Nothing personal meant by my comments, @psuhoffman, that was all directed at how things looked of course and not at you!  You're just the messenger.  Though I assume you knew what I was saying!)

No kid gloves needed with me. 

[tombo82685]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Roger.  And who knows what happens day 15 anyway.  We can roll with this for now. 

these are the 850 anoms off it

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow, that's a rough look at D15 on the EPS, @psuhoffman.  I just saw the D10 and thought that looked pretty workable actually.  

 

Yea it’s heading in the right directing but then reverts to that...there obviously will be periods of fluctuations but if that is the main base state we’re in some pretty big trouble barring phenomenal luck.  We are still 1-2 weeks from me conceding that but in years that had a dramatic flip like 2005 and 2015 there were precursor signs in advance. If we get to mid January and it still looks like that (or anything close to that) out as far as we can see...it might be time to admit this year is very likely going to seriously suck.  I’ve kept the thought to myself but everyone acts like we’re due for a lot of snow, but climo wise we’re actually way more due for a 2002, 2008, 2012 type region wide dumpster fire epic fail year. 

Not saying I’m there yet. I still think there are enough positive signals to think we lock into a total crap pattern all winter.  I’m really curious to see the new QBO numbers next week. If that stalled or reversed I might be more pessimistic.  My guess is still this is temporary. It’s probably going to last way longer than we want, but not all winter. But man if we were going to have a total fail year it would look like that EPS run...

[psuhoffman]

It’s a cold shot, but it’s a crap pattern for snow. Look at the central PAC from 150 hours on and animate the EPS and GEFS. Notice the most anomalous feature in the whole NHEM is the stationary ridge north of Hawaii.  So long as that’s there our snow chances are Fooked. We would be needing some serious string of lucky convolutedness to overcome that. Flukes happen but having to rely on them is not where I want to be. Any run of any guidance that has that is a bad run imo.  I don’t care what else it might show. 

[Ji]

Things are so bad that even roger Smith wont post in our forum

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Things are so bad that even roger Smith wont post in our forum

I’m going to take my own advice and take a break for a while and hopefully things look better in a couple days. No reason to bring everyone down.  

[cbmclean]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m going to take my own advice and take a break for a while and hopefully things look better in a couple days. No reason to bring everyone down.  

I finally have time to start seriously learning how to interpret 500 HP charts.  Before you take your break, can you explain the negative downstream effects of the ridge north of Hawaii?

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I finally have time to start seriously learning how to interpret 500 HP charts.  Before you take your break, can you explain the negative downstream effects of the ridge north of Hawaii?

The tropical pacific (being the largest body of warm water combined with being upstream from us) is a major driver. Seeing such an anomalous ridge there also is a clue it’s a cause not an effect. Well in reality the ridge there is an effect of other things like convective waves but it’s a primary effect not secondary. And a ridge there has consequences downstream. Think of the atmospheric like waves. A ridge there , given normal wavelengths, pumps a ridge in the east.  

it’s the exact opposite of what we want...

I hope I explained that well enough. 

[psuhoffman]

@frd

One last point before I go. Not sure I agree wrt the north Pac SST. When we were in a VM look I researched similar years where the warm pool was south of Alaska not tucked into the coast like a typical PDO look and I found that it still tended to set up a favorable epo ridge. The little bit of cool water along the coast isn’t enough to seriously impact the pattern. But since then the north pac sst has evolved into a more canonical pdo look. It’s a weak pdo look for sure but not hostile at all 

we are having serious pattern issues wrt the central pac ridge mostly due imo to mjo forcing centered west of where we want. Mostly west of not along and east of the dateline. But the problem is not north pac SST related imo. 

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The tropical pacific (being the largest body of warm water combined with being upstream from us) is a major driver. Seeing such an anomalous ridge there also is a clue it’s a cause not an effect. Well in reality the ridge there is an effect of other things like convective waves but it’s a primary effect not secondary. And a ridge there has consequences downstream. Think of the atmospheric like waves. A ridge there , given normal wavelengths, pumps a ridge in the east.  

it’s the exact opposite of what we want...

I hope I explained that well enough. 

Yes that is very helpful thanks.  Wouldn't it be nice if that anomalous warm bubble actually verified a couple of thousand miles east but was still as persistent?

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

we are having serious pattern issues wrt the central pac ridge mostly due imo to mjo forcing centered west of where we want. Mostly west of not along and east of the dateline. But the problem is not north pac SST related imo. 

Yes, I tend to agree, good observation.

We really need something to re-set the entire SST pattern out there. Wonder what would happen if we had a moderate Nino or even stronger. We seem to be stuck with the recurring issues.  

 

 

[jaydreb]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The tropical pacific (being the largest body of warm water combined with being upstream from us) is a major driver. Seeing such an anomalous ridge there also is a clue it’s a cause not an effect. Well in reality the ridge there is an effect of other things like convective waves but it’s a primary effect not secondary. And a ridge there has consequences downstream. Think of the atmospheric like waves. A ridge there , given normal wavelengths, pumps a ridge in the east.  

it’s the exact opposite of what we want...

I hope I explained that well enough. 

Thanks for this PSU.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd

One last point before I go. Not sure I agree wrt the north Pac SST. When we were in a VM look I researched similar years where the warm pool was south of Alaska not tucked into the coast like a typical PDO look and I found that it still tended to set up a favorable epo ridge. The little bit of cool water along the coast isn’t enough to seriously impact the pattern. But since then the north pac sst has evolved into a more canonical pdo look. It’s a weak pdo look for sure but not hostile at all 

we are having serious pattern issues wrt the central pac ridge mostly due imo to mjo forcing centered west of where we want. Mostly west of not along and east of the dateline. But the problem is not north pac SST related imo. 

If that’s the case then I’d think there are going to be favorable periods coming. The MJO won’t stay there

[WinterWxLuvr]

Speaking of the MJO, I don’t have the shot that was posted in here on Monday but it didn’t end up today anywhere near where it was forecast. It has already made it to midway through 6. Notice those loops always tend to be forecast to start at about day 8 or so. 

[CAPE]

Best  to just drink more and worry less about the upcoming advertised h5 pattern. Its just not a pretty picture no matter how optimistic you are. Not to say it wont look more favorable in the near future. We all know how this works. Stuff can change pretty quickly.

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Best  to just drink more and worry less about the upcoming advertised h5 pattern. Its just not a pretty picture no matter how optimistic you are. Not to say it wont look more favorable in the near future. We all know how this works. Stuff can change pretty quickly.

Agreed! Those here long enough should know it’s nothing but a winter roller coaster. Tomorrow is always something new. Be patient and drink something good. It will definitely snow again I swear....in 2023. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, LurkerBoy said:

It’s ova according to everything but the American models 

US models are caving rapidly. Last year extended range had epic looks and they never materialized until March and stayed 10 days+ out all winter. This season we get poor looks and they continue looking more bleak and getting closer in time and hang on longer in the LR. Funny how that works. Tuning up the lawnmower today. Maybe reverse psychology can help lol.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last year extended range had epic looks and they never materialized until March and stayed 10 days+ out all winter. This season we get poor looks and they continue looking more bleak and getting closer in time and hang on longer in the LR.

Of course seasonal models looking correct at the current time, in regards to the HL.

Courtesy 33andrain - I enjoy Snowy's post, here is a little regarding EAMT and the Siberian High . Snowy's thoughts  seem to echo the modeling at this time.  

<<

Posted 12 hours ago

Just a few notes about the East Asian Mountain Torque, we will start with the current status. We are currently in a negative EAMT.

I expect a positive EAMT to develop in the next few days to counter the current negative trend for a brief moment. This would add some momentum for the first 10 days of January for the PNA domain. But it won’t last.

However from about the 1st to 3rd of Jan, we will see another -EAMT come into play, and this one could be sustained for a while. This is going to reduce momentum in the North Pacific basin, and increase the forcing of Aleutian ridging, and therefore Western US troughing and Eastern US ridging.

 

 

As you can see in the model guidance, the troughing over Siberia early in January weakens the Siberian High, which weakens our chances for a stronger North Pacific jet stream pattern, and for a strong Aleutian low.

Based upon this, I’d forecast Aleutian ridging for much of the month of January, barring an extraordinary constructive interference. The weak Siberian High and Aleutian low also means that any forcing towards a SSW is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Hope everyone here had a good Christmas, and wish everyone a happy New Year.

>>

 

[Its a Breeze]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

US models are caving rapidly. Last year extended range had epic looks and they never materialized until March and stayed 10 days+ out all winter. 

I think most somehow managed to be at or above average last year.

...something materialized *shrugs*

[Eskimo Joe]

I think @Bob Chilland @psuhoffman mentioned this before.  Worth a read:

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Talk about a role reversal....how about a high coming out of the GOM attacking a banana low anchored over the NE. Cant say I've seen anything like that anytime recently

[ryanconway63]

big improvements on the GFS in the Jan 5th-10th time frame

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

big improvements on the GFS in the Jan 5th-10th time frame

Opposite actually. PNA ridge we had for a window gets squashed and a SE ridge is showing up. Granted it is an op run and at range but there was no improvement....quite the opposite.

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Opposite actually. PNA ridge we had for a window gets squashed and a SE ridge is showing up. Granted it is an op run and at range but there was no improvement....quite the opposite.

 

A storm formed way offshore before this timeframe. The pacific keeps killing us.