showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 6 hours ago, Amped said: Appears to be rather transient though. Not liking the Pac look overall. Going to be an warm period for the foreseeable future. Despite the 00z gefs clocking in with probably a neutral epo that is a cold look in the extended. Neg temp anomalies it is currently depicting are probably even understated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Not hating the look the gefs is now throwing at us in the extended. Definitely a workable pattern as long as we stay on the right side of the boundary that will set up with that ridging in the se. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Not hating the look the gefs is now throwing at us in the extended. Definitely a workable pattern as long as we stay on the right side of the boundary that will set up with that ridging in the se. Agreed. And Merry Xmas eve sir. Make the casino pay you today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not hating the look the gefs is now throwing at us in the extended. Definitely a workable pattern as long as we stay on the right side of the boundary that will set up with that ridging in the se. Any love on the EURO in the extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not hating the look the gefs is now throwing at us in the extended. Definitely a workable pattern as long as we stay on the right side of the boundary that will set up with that ridging in the se. First week of Jan continues to look active on the GEFS with some cold around. As depicted it could be an interesting period. Fwiw, the snow means the past few runs have looked decent for the window beginning around Jan 3. Given the GFS propensity for overdoing cold in the LR, not getting overly excited about it yet, and the EPS isn't as enthusiastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Agreed. And Merry Xmas eve sir. Make the casino pay you today! Know this is banter but what the hey. Merry Christmas to you as well. I am at the rocky gap casino in western md and it is freaking great. Slots have been paying out great. Casino is clean, hotel is very nice and the food is good. Already decided I will make this my destination if we can get a good weekend snowstorm this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Any love on the EURO in the extended Here is h5 for the first week of Jan from the 0z EPS run. I've seen better lol. 0z GEFS has a bit more ridging out west and normal h5 heights for the east coast for the same period, with lower height anomalies just to the NW over the GLs. Overall colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Any love on the EURO in the Haven't looked hard into it, would rather play my slots , bbut I like the improvements we have seen at 500s compared to the 12z at the end of the extended. Eta: as far as the pac, PV positioning around Green land degraded some what though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 It's not much and I won't share any thoughts about what I think about early Jan but... EPS shows there's more than a 1% chance at an event around NYE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It's not much and I won't share any thoughts about what I think about early Jan but... EPS shows there's more than a 1% chance at an event around NYE 00z EPS Control had a 1-2" storm. GEFS gives us a shot as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Doesn't work out on the run but I'm not mad at the CMC's version of NYE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Was waiting on this update, released today by http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview I am not an expert on this topic but I am surprised we have gone from 2.2 C. in mid-October to +0.6 C. as of December 24, 2019. Even further weakening is expected according to the various climate models. The + IOD threshold is +0.4 C. Now the question is how soon will the atmosphere react, so we can revert to a more conducive and assertive Pac forcing regime, not all of these weak, multiple areas of convection that continues to throw off the various MJO models. New release- issued December 24, 2019 Positive Indian Ocean Dipole weakens: The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to weaken, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The IOD value has fallen from a peak of +2.2 °C in mid-October, to the latest weekly value of +0.6 °C. Warmer than average waters persist near the Horn of Africa, but waters in the eastern Indian Ocean are now near-average. While the index is still above the positive IOD threshold of +0.4 °C, most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the positive IOD will dissipate in January. The rate of current weakening would suggest a return to neutral is likely by early January. Positive IOD events in spring (as happened this year) are often associated with a more severe fire season for southeast Australia in the summer months. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, while most indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are neutral, warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the far western tropical Pacific may be contributing to some changes in local weather patterns over the region. International climate models forecast ENSO-neutral until at least autumn 2020. When ENSO is neutral, it has limited influence on Australian and global climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 This is a 7 day mean for the first week of Jan...A notable feature throughout the GFS and the GEFS is the trough east of HI. Maybe this could send periodic shots of a west coast ridge even while the HLs are extremely hostile. With the active flow and cold very nearby maybe we can get something to dig under us at the right time. Hints of this on today's runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Doesn't work out on the run but I'm not mad at the CMC's version of NYELol it wasn't even close for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 January looks to have a few possibilities if we can get lucky. Nice to see a 1050 hp north of us in the last part of the run. Prime climo fast approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 50 minutes ago, poolz1 said: This is a 7 day mean for the first week of Jan...A notable feature throughout the GFS and the GEFS is the trough east of HI. Maybe this could send periodic shots of a west coast ridge even while the HLs are extremely hostile. With the active flow and cold very nearby maybe we can get something to dig under us at the right time. Hints of this on today's runs. Also of note, SE Canada maintains snow depth and the fantasy land GEFS does have a somewhat colder look for us originating from the extreme cold air mass pooling near Alaska and the NW territories and then SE towards the Tennessee Valley, NE and the Northern Mid Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Gfs and GEFS show that there could be chances after New Years. Not much more to say though. Longwave pattern still fairly hostile to any big storm, but should be seasonable temperatures so possibilities for smaller events might be there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Day 10 Euro op looks........interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Day 10 Euro op looks........interesting. Not seeing it. Maybe I am not looking hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not seeing it. Maybe I am not looking hard enough. It walked away from the big wound up PV over the pole, a little bit, toward the end. Even looks to try to fire up a -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just now, Cold Rain said: It walked away from the big wound up PV over the pole, a little bit, toward the end. Even looks to try to fire up a -NAO. Interesting. Some serious cold up north way out. Just need a vehicle to deliver it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 37 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It walked away from the big wound up PV over the pole, a little bit, toward the end. Even looks to try to fire up a -NAO. Bingo...actually day 9 has a lp attacking a departing hp. Ends up cutting but different look that some of the gloom doom and SHUTOUT talks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 EPS is looking much better down the line (not the same as looking good. Lol). Especially in the Atl. Also moves the tpv out of AK fairly quickly and is building an -epo ridge. Mid level temps are looking cold by d15 so some of the arctic air in AK is getting displaced into the mid latitudes. All in all I'll take the 12z eps run as a Christmas present. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is looking much better down the line (not the same as looking good. Lol). Especially in the Atl. Also moves the tpv out of AK fairly quickly and is building an -epo ridge. Mid level temps are looking cold by d15 so some of the arctic air in AK is getting displaced into the mid latitudes. All in all I'll take the 12z eps run as a Christmas present. yea i noticed d11-15...850 temps are pretty well below normal for us and a large part of the country 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 47 minutes ago, Ji said: yea i noticed d11-15...850 temps are pretty well below normal for us and a large part of the country I believe models are converging on an unusual epac ridge axis that puts western canada into the deep freeze as the ridge axis runs along the coast. It's a weird pattern in general but hey, get canada into the deep freeze without a SE ridge and we'll get some cold. Get enough cold and it should accidentally snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I really enjoyed the HH GFS at 288 that takes a low in the Western Gulf and dives it straight Southeast into Jamaica!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I believe models are converging on an unusual epac ridge axis that puts western canada into the deep freeze as the ridge axis runs along the coast. It's a weird pattern in general but hey, get canada into the deep freeze without a SE ridge and we'll get some cold. Get enough cold and it should accidentally snow I’m convinced nearly all of our snow is accidental. So this fits the MA winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I really enjoyed the HH GFS at 288 that takes a low in the Western Gulf and dives it straight Southeast into Jamaica!! Well, everyone is always talking about getting a wave to go south of us. Mission accomplished. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Nice to see a coastal on the Gfs even if its day 11 .That would be brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 GFS says Merry Christmas perhaps for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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