January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agreed. If the CFS actually has a clue, I would be ok with what it's advertising overall, with an EPO ridge and a mostly neutral AO/NAO look, and a piece of the TPV on our side, although not necessarily in an ideal spot. This look would be acceptable for mid-late Jan:

Purely analyzing that cfs look, I actually like the Atlantic better than the pac. That’s a clear -NAO (east based though) with ridging over the top of the trough. The epo ridge is a west based epo. For the epo to really be ideal for snow we need it centered right along the coast and poking a ridge into northwest North America. That position without any Atlantic help would lead to a southeast ridge. You can see the se ridge trying but being muted by the NAO. That could set up an interesting battleground across our area. I’d take that look over a lot of the other options. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Purely analyzing that cfs look, I actually like the Atlantic better than the pac. That’s a clear -NAO (east based though) with ridging over the top of the trough. The epo ridge is a west based epo. For the epo to really be ideal for snow we need it centered right along the coast and poking a ridge into northwest North America. That position without any Atlantic help would lead to a southeast ridge. You can see the se ridge trying but being muted by the NAO. That could set up an interesting battleground across our area. I’d take that look over a lot of the other options. 

Yeah it builds the NAO ridge week 4-5, so who knows how real that is. Looks somewhat positive/neutral before that. Hopefully the EPO ridge gets into a better spot, because I still have my doubts about a  sustained NA block, and as you said without it we fight the tendency for SE ridging given the advertised the EPO location verbatim.

[Bob Chill]

12z gefs is picking up on something around NYE and the CMC op hits us good The GEFS members that work out are similar to the CMC progression with a wave or waves getting suppressed by transient 50/50 atl blocking. IMO- it's a huge longshot but there are enough hints in that time frame to keep it interesting. 

 

 

 

 

[Scraff]

Thanks CMC. Happy New Year! 

[Solution Man]

Need the rest of the models to follow suit

[BristowWx]

15 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Need the rest of the models to follow suit

Euro has a different idea.  Colonel Mc Cutter 

[cbmclean]

39 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Thanks CMC. Happy New Year! 

Man look at that triangle of doom in West Kansas.

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Euro has a different idea.  Colonel Mc Cutter 

Euro wasn't far from a much better outcome. A tighter spacing/flatter ridge in front and more confluence from the atlantic and storm track suddenly goes from cutter to coastal. In between solution would be CAD then flip. This is a decent panel right here 

Flatten the top of the full latitude ridge and we snow

 

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill

all of this pertains to week 2 since week 1 is toast...so everythOmg we’re discussing is low probability. Disclaimer out of the way....

I do think there is a crack open for something during the transitional period early week 2. It’s a long shot but not out of the question. Need timing to be in our side wrt wave spacing. So it’s not all bad.  And what I’m about to say is dealing with stuff that’s post day 10 so there is a high chance it’s wrong anyways.  

That said I’m pretty disgusted with what I see long range.  The CFS is ok as cape pointed out but I really put no stock in it.  It’s been running “behind” on ideas for a while.  Right now it’s still got the mjo idea of a run towards cold phases that other guidance had 72 hours ago.  They have abandoned that.  I suspect the cfs will catch on soon.  Now im not buying the current look either, the tropical forcing had been a convoluted mess the models can’t handle for a while and they flip ideas every few days.  But saying “it might be wrong” isn’t a great reason for optimism either.  But hope I suppose.  

The current struggles don’t bother me much because we can recover from this quick and it’s December.  A misplaced but otherwise compact tpv messing up the epo with an otherwise good look up top isn’t a long term winter long killer imo.  But that look the eps and gefs has day 15 last night would be a disaster going into mid January.  It might have been somewhat cold day 15 from the leftover day 10 shot, but roll that ahead and it would be a raging se ridge a few days later and that look, with a strengthening PV taking over from epo to NAO up top is a pattern that can ruin a LONG period and having that set in the second week is January is a Ji meltdown worthy event. 

Now before people head for bridges and say Psuhoffman cancelled winter...I think it’s wrong.  It goes against the analogs and pattern progression I expect.  But seeing that doesn’t make me feel better.  I would rather have guidance on my side than not.  So yea I’m slightly shaken by that day 15 look.  I won’t really buy it though until it progresses consistently into day 10.  But if that really is what’s coming going into the second week of January, then I will admit things are not going the way I expected.  

 

 

[psuhoffman]

12z EPS still looks like cutter/cold dry/warm up imo. 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z EPS still looks like cutter/cold dry/warm up imo. 

Next 8-10 days or beyond that?

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z EPS still looks like cutter/cold dry/warm up imo. 

I like the long range discussions you have in this sub forum even if I don’t live in it. Anyway, the pattern on the EPS and GEFS toward day 15 look more “Niña” to me. I wonder if we will start to see a rise in the SOI coming up. If we do start to see a rise in the SOI , I bet the MJO will come out of the COD too. It could also be that the day 15 look is completely wrong. lol I think watching this evolve is really interesting and also shows the limitations of both humans and models with forecasting even only two weeks out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

I like the long range discussions you have in this sub forum even if I don’t live in it. Anyway, the pattern on the EPS and GEFS toward day 15 look more “Niña” to me. I wonder if we will start to see a rise in the SOI coming up. If we do start to see a rise in the SOI , I bet the MJO will come out of the COD too. It could also be that the day 15 look is completely wrong. lol I think watching this evolve is really interesting and also shows the limitations of both humans and models with forecasting even only two weeks out.

My feeling on the coming pattern is a roller coaster. Blast of cold, moderation and yes even torch, cold/dry, warm/wet, clippers, and even a KU coastal before winter is out. I dont think we are going to lock into one particular pattern that just keeps repeating....maybe 7-10 day fluxes. If guidance being all over the board isnt screaming 'chaos' or 'topsy turvy' with unpredictable changes and swings as we head into the heart of winter, then I'm not sure what does.

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My feeling on the coming pattern is a roller coaster. Blast of cold, moderation and yes even torch, cold/dry, warm/wet, clippers, and even a KU coastal before winter is out. I dont think we are going to lock into one particular pattern that just keeps repeating....maybe 7-10 day fluxes. If guidance being all over the board isnt screaming 'chaos' or 'topsy turvy' with unpredictable changes and swings as we head into the heart of winter, then I'm not sure what does.

Now...I'm wondering if that means this ends up like the 2005/06 winter when got a single 1 footer and not much else, lol (I'm still bettin' on that 1 footer because of our recent every 3-4 year cycle for those!)

[frd]

51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My feeling on the coming pattern is a roller coaster.

Speculation could be because of the weak Enso state we remain in a rather volatile and variable pattern the duration of the winter. Speculation, of course, but until a certain pattern driver takes hold and is able to provide a repetitive pattern ( feedback loop, etc ) maybe it is more of the same.  Hard to say right now. 

Will the driver be blocking in AO domain that goes negative for a period of 30 to 45 days, will the MJO become more prominent and work in our favor, aka the Webb progression,  or will it be more of the same. Interesting times ahead.    

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Speculation could be because of the weak Enso state we remain in a rather volatile and variable pattern the duration of the winter. Speculation, of course, but until a certain pattern driver takes hold and is able to provide a repetitive pattern ( feedback loop, etc ) maybe it is more of the same.  Hard to say right now. 

Will the driver be blocking in AO domain that goes negative for a period of 30 to 45 days, will the MJO become more prominent and work in our favor, aka the Webb progression,  or will it be more of the same. Interesting times ahead.    

'Variablility' is a good word on where we are headed imho. Back in mid Nov when many of us were discussing the winter possibilities most of us noted that there was nothing that made the forecast lean one way or the other. We talked about lots of conflicting signals and one of the more challenging seasonal forecasts in quite some time because there were no concrete factors that were swaying to one side or the other. And this is precisely what we are seeing. HL blocking is there as several felt it would be BUT it continues to shuffle around between the EPO region, AO, and NAO regions respectively. Weaknesses in the 50/50 region have been welcome, but will that last? Split flow out West continues to emerge at times. But most of these pattern features have failed thus far to work in tandem and form any sort of predictable recurring patterns that we are accustomed to seeing some years.

Im not sure anyone can confidently say they can read what the pattern or a specific tellie is going to do past 8 days where we are now this season based on recent history of A+B+C=D. I do not exclude myself from this. This is a setup where certain features are transient and throwing fits into how those features interact in the long wave pattern. This isnt a knock on anyone at all. Trying to put the pieces together is why we are here and how we learn. My thoughts are that by the end of this season were are going to look back and say "what an unpredictably wild ride....there is alot to be learned from winter 2019-2020".

[BristowWx]

That has to be one of the most discouraging GEFS runs at 18z ever. 

[blizzardmeiser]

20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That has to be one of the most discouraging GEFS runs at 18z ever. 

Might need to be patient for the next several weeks....

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Might need to be patient for the next several weeks....

Agreed.  Taking a long overdue mental health break. Maybe things will look better post NYE. 

[dallen7908]

As last Friday's 3-4 week outlook said. 

"Intraseasonal variability in the tropics remains weak as there are still no strong MJO or other equatorial wave signals. The Indian Ocean Dipole remains strongly positive, although its amplitude has decreased by about 50% since the beginning of December. ENSO neutral conditions also persist; the SST anomalies in the Nino 1+2, 3, and 4 regions haven't changed much over the past month. Since there are no strong intraseasonal signals to use as Week 3/4 predictors, this forecast is based entirely on dynamical model guidance."

Unfortunately, the EPS and GEFS (the dynamical model guidance) show a +NAO, ++EPO, +AO, and a slightly negative PNA during the first week of January.  Bleak but does it really matter given this is not a window when it makes sense to make a week 3 forecast. 

 

 

 

[Wonderdog]

33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agreed.  Taking a long overdue mental health break. Maybe things will look better post NYE. 

The period of 1/4-6/20 has been showing up as a period worth watching. And to my untrained eye, H5 looks half-way decent during that time. And if not, take solace in the fact that the EAGLES sent the Cowboys packing, maybe.

[Ji]

any momentum that was gained was lost. We are not getting snow this year it appears

[RedSky]

Last winter epic patterns lurked 15 days away until March, then it half worked out

 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

any momentum that was gained was lost. We are not getting snow this year it appears

You’re the master of exaggeration. But I’ll give you this...what all the guidance shows up top starting day 7 on is extremely troubling. 

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re the master of exaggeration. But I’ll give you this...what all the guidance shows up top starting day 7 on is extremely troubling. 

PV bouncing around in all the wrong places?

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re the master of exaggeration. But I’ll give you this...what all the guidance shows up top starting day 7 on is extremely troubling. 

Waiting on the EPS to finish running to see what it has to say, but yeah the GEFS was pretty rough looking. Starting to hit hard on having a pv influence in/around Alaska and the latest run is following the EPS idea from yesterdays 00z run of planting that squarely into Alaska where we do not want to see it. Good thing here is that it doesn't take much of a shift with that feature (westward) to get a good look. As far as the NAO it won't win many friends. PV planted squarely in the western NAO domain and its influence spreading across Greenland down into N Europe. The run was pretty much the 2 worst case scenarios from my post yesterday.

Won't say recent trends aren't somewhat concerning but I will reserve judgement for a few more days. Wouldn't take much to turn this look into a pretty good look and it probably all keys on how it handles the main piece of pv as it rotates eastward towards Greenland. See a farther southward drop and I think we see a good response in both the PAC and the NAO domains. As it is the current look being thrown up isn't what i would call a high probability look for our snow chances, far from it actually, but it is one that can be workable considering the time of the year.

[showmethesnow]

Just glanced at the latest EPS. Pretty rough looking in the higher latitudes but we did see some slight improvements here and there from the 12z. That said the look in the extended is workable given the time of the year but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for snow. 

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just glanced at the latest EPS. Pretty rough looking in the higher latitudes but we did see some slight improvements here and there from the 12z. That said the look in the extended is workable given the time of the year but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for snow. 

Slight improvements aren't going to get it done IMO. We would need to see continued improvements.

[Rtd208]

Posted this in some of the other threads so I figured I would post it here as well.

For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see much of anything substantial until the last week of January. If that is the case lets hope good things come to those who wait. We'll see.

 

Disclaimer: Not saying this is how things will play out but it is a possibility.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Rtd208 said:

Slight improvements aren't going to get it done IMO. We would need to see continued improvements.

Never said it would.  Just trying to find something positive to say about some crappy overnight runs.