nj2va Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Time for a new thread. Let’s do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Enjoy this relax/reload period for the next week to 10 days. Enjoy the holidays...family...the seasonal weather. Busy times ahead as the New Year approaches. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 I love the animation, pretty cool to see things reverse/ retrograde. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out. The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out. The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. If the day 8-10 deal doesn't work out, looks like day 12 or day 15 has a chance undercutting that ridge out west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 sooner or later the wave train of 50/50's has to pay off!!! We only need a couple good hits to make a winter here. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: If the day 8-10 deal doesn't work out, looks like day 12 or day 15 has a chance undercutting that ridge out west Yea, now we have the big 3 globals looking the same at d10 and all ens support the idea of how/when things turn for the better. The GFS/CMC/Euro have a storm approaching from the SW d8. The Atl can make this happen with well placed confluence. Even with a west track we can do our CAD thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Euro has that strong ridge pushing into the Pac northwest just like GEFS by D10. That ridge is what shuffles things in our favor on the GEFS. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out. The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. Bob, would you say when you look at Canada and the HL the progression resembles the GEFS for this time period. To me it looks close in certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 I would speculate these storms off the NE coast continue to possibly add wave breaks to the NW Atlantic reinforcing the good vibes there while various S/W traverse under the block way out in fantasy land. Maybe the EPS will show this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Just now, frd said: Bob, would you say when you look at Canada and the HL the progression resembles the GEFS for this time period. To me it looks close in certain areas. I think all guidance looks the same now in general (including the CMC/GEPS). Ridge in the EPac splits flow and the blocking ridge in Canada forces the northern stream underneath as the Atlantic carves out a 50/50. All models are showing a similar progression with just minor differences in speed/placement of features. The most important thing to root for is the altantic carving out confluence as soon as possible. We'll be in the sweet climo window where normal temps are good enough by the time things improve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: I would speculate these storms off the NE coast continue to possibly add wave breaks to the NW Atlantic reinforcing the good vibes there while various S/W traverse under the block way out in fantasy land. Maybe the EPS will show this. Ideally that is how it works...creating a feedback loop in our favor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think all guidance looks the same now in general (including the CMC/GEPS). Ridge in the EPac splits flow and the blocking ridge in Canada forces the northern stream underneath as the Atlantic carves out a 50/50. All models are showing a similar progression with just minor differences in speed/placement of features. The most important thing to root for is the altantic carving out confluence as soon as possible. We'll be in the sweet climo window where normal temps are good enough by the time things improve. Agreed...and a very interesting look. Bob (and anyone else), looking at the 216h and 240h plots above...I can see how that ridging in the intermountain west and up in to Canada results in what could be a more favorable split-flow potential. However, looking outside that, would we also perhaps ideally want that E-W oriented ridge that's "pointing" toward the Gulf of AK to eventually be a bit farther east and orient more N-S in time? Curious what that might do, hypothetically. Could it be a hint of re-generating a more favorable -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Very nice shift on the EPS towards a colder regime beginning just after NYE with a much more defined eastern conus trough in place by Jan 2nd. One of the larger run over run jumps (in the good direction) I've seen recently. ETA: h5 pattern looks good but oddly there isn't much going on in the snowfall dept. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One of the larger run over run jumps (in the good direction) I've seen recently. Another kudo to HM for stating this upcoming period would bring model uncertainty along with significant run over run changes. Having the EPS, CFS, GEFS, analogs etc all pointing in the same direction for once is a huge morale booster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has that strong ridge pushing into the Pac northwest just like GEFS by D10. That ridge is what shuffles things in our favor on the GEFS. What a difference a day makes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out. The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. I mentioned that day 9-10 system this morning. It was an interesting look on the gfs ens members at 6z. Haven’t looked at anything since but you’re post caught my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very nice shift on the EPS towards a colder regime beginning just after NYE with a much more defined eastern conus trough in place by Jan 2nd. One of the larger run over run jumps (in the good direction) I've seen recently. ETA: h5 pattern looks good but oddly there isn't much going on in the snowfall dept. Looking at the individual members, there is agreement on a big cutter day 9-11 and then most of the members that cause the "trough" look in the east after that are just cold and dry with a big high parked over the east. There are some wet members...but they differ on things and take another cutter over after that. There really is no support among either camp for a frozen event despite the h5 look. Its split between cold/dry and warm/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 No one mentioned it, probably because its worthless...but the euro weeklies did have a nice NAO signature straight through the whole run. Pacific is mediocre at best the whole time though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Hard not like this h5 representation After the the day 10 storm ..more energy ejecting out of the sw “Low in my hood, back east could be good!” . 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 HH GFS interesting look at 180. Get that NS ull to plow ESE and flatten the top of that ridge down into the Mid Atl and not phase with the stj ull and have the stj wave follow behind and yeah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: HH GFS interesting look at 180. Get that NS ull to plow ESE and flatten the top of that ridge down into the Mid Atl and not phase with the stj ull and have the stj wave follow behind and yeah. Something to look at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: Something to look at We can dream while the blinds are closed. I'm creepily peeking thru the slits stalking the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Those two shortwaves move in perfect tandem across the continent. Get the ns ahead of the southern and that storm might take on a completely different look. ie timing is the key. Pretty much what Ralph was saying lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We can dream while the blinds are closed. I'm creepily peeking thru the slits stalking the pattern change. I do like seeing guidance lock in to a return to more favorable conditions before the end of the year. Important step #1 is to not have the 850 0c line north of the great lakes. That should be fixed before 2020. But like with all large pattern flips... they generally don't hit the ground running so patience required (as always....) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Those two shortwaves move in perfect tandem across the continent. Get the ns ahead of the southern and that storm might take on a completely different look. ie timing is the key. Pretty much what Ralph was saying lol There's a parade of closed ULLs tracking through the southwest on all ops right now. Get the atlantic right and keep the parade going and one of them is going to hit us flush. One of the most persistent LW features since mid Nov has been 50/50s. I haven't seen the atlantic look this good since Jan 2011. There's nothing more fun than a classic coastal that hits everyone relatively equally. I liked seeing the Jan 87 analogs showing up on cpc. The only thing more fun than a flush hit coastal is a second one shortly after... 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Here's the mslp anomaly for the last 30 days or so. Confirms my thoughts about a persistent low pressure near the maritimes. I'm good with that continuing through the end of March 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 To go with the above from @Bob Chill this is a another fascinating animation regarding the NW Atlantic, Check out the second image loop from Anthony. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 This looks freekin good. I'm good with every member height plot on this panel and it's 15 days out in time. Not a bad one in the bunch. The ones that are warm have winter on the heels. Can't predict snow this far out in time but it def looks like we're getting some cold shots in early Jan. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This looks freekin good. I'm good with every member height plot on this panel and it's 15 days out in time. Not a bad one in the bunch. The ones that are warm have winter on the heels. Can't predict snow this far out in time but it def looks like we're getting some cold shots in early Jan. 24-36 hours ago things looked so bleak. The turnaround is nothing short of miracle. Let’s hope it’s not a mirage. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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