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12/17 Messy Mix - Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone
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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well the thing is it’s not overly curvy or windy. It’s hilly , but that’s no excuse. I mean people drive 80+ all the time in all interstates. There’s more to it than that. They’ve done countless studies on it and can’t come to a conclusion. It’s honestly a little eerie. I drive it almost daily during the week at some point. I often look at it and wonder what’s really going on. Supernatural?

It seems every major highway has its "trap" zone.  For I-95 in Maine, the place I've seen the most trouble is 15-20 miles south of BGR, around miles 160-65.  I think the nearby Dixmont hills augment snow and temps are a bit colder on that stretch.  Folks driving too fast on wet roads suddenly take an icy ride into the ditch, sometimes finishing shiny side down.  Several years ago, a narrow band (little in BGR or Newport) dumped heavy snow for a short time and caused a northbound pile-up of nearly 100 vehicles. Don't think there were a lot of injuries but many folks' days were spoiled.

0.9" of 30:1 fluff overnight brought the total to 3.0" on 0.15" LE.  Final tenth was after my 7 AM report to cocorahs.  Still the odd flake drifting down in Augusta, though I can see small patches of blue.

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Surprisingly it semi-snowed all last night and was still flurrying in the morning today.  I blew about 3-4" off the driveway last night and there was another 1.5-2" this morning.  I think I may have pulled 5-6" from the storm when all is said and done.  Yard looks gorgeous and back to powdery winter landscape.  Love it.

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58 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Snowfall Totals in CT vs FX.

Grade: B

12_15.19_SNOW_forecast.thumb.jpg.50576c353f0b5b5b8d0aa833346b11a2.jpg

12_17.19_snow_totals.thumb.jpg.920f5f8f427425176df8483444d7323f.jpg

Not bad....staying conservative down south was a good call....I would've been suckered into going pretty big down there. Usually when guidance all shifts toward a good hit less than 24h out, it's correct....but it backed off quickly....tough event to forecast for....but holding steady proved to be the best course of action.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not bad....staying conservative down south was a good call....I would've been suckered into going pretty big down there. Usually when guidance all shifts toward a good hit less than 24h out, it's correct....but it backed off quickly....tough event to forecast for....but holding steady proved to be the best course of action.

Thank you i appreciate the acknowledgement. Think it was a B/B- for both Ice and Snow. 

I was tempted to go up and seriously considering it but after many mesos started backing down the front end thump and warming mid levels i held off. Interestingly this was my first call as well. Funny it was literally the lowest snowfall forecast out there and it was STILL too high in N 1/3 of CT. I didn't want to shave that 2-4 down though because at least that looked like a reasonable call, even with the trends. 

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not bad....staying conservative down south was a good call....I would've been suckered into going pretty big down there. Usually when guidance all shifts toward a good hit less than 24h out, it's correct....but it backed off quickly....tough event to forecast for....but holding steady proved to be the best course of action.

Had 1” here @The 4 Seasons

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Post analysis.....tough call on what exactly went wrong, but I think convection may have played a role in attenuating what was already marginal OMEGA/moisture combo in SNE, and enhanced it north. However I think if the system wasn't already a sheared POS, the convection alone would not have had this impact.

My ice call was decent.

Final Grade: C-

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/1216-1217-post-analysis.html

Verifiy Snow.png

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah good call dude. I probably would have went higher last minute as well.  Good job. 

Yea i ended up going up on the ice numbers and staying the same on the snowfall. Glad i did both. 

Quite an icestorm down at the shore here in CT 0.50"+ we got that half inch @ORH_wxman!!!

It's absolutely beautiful outside, hardly any ice melted off of the trees and we got a solid snow covering on top of the ice now. Should stick around for a few days...

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