janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST LA TO CENTRAL MS... ..SUMMARY NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE PEAK TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING, CENTERED ON NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ..LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH PRIMARY CHANGES THIS OUTLOOK ARE TO INCREASE TORNADO AND WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS. IN ADDITION, THE SLGT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH FOR WIND INTO MIDDLE TN NEAR THE EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK. GRADUAL EXPANSION OF SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SABINE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS, ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND MS/AL REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, BUT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL IN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA ACROSS CENTRAL MS WHERE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE, AND SHOULD ACCESS THE MOST FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE. DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON CONVECTIVE EVENT AREA-WIDE. SEVERE HAIL IS MOST PROBABLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, ESSENTIALLY COLLOCATED WITH GREATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES. 12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED THE PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERLYING THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME (CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS) EMANATING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR, BUT MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL PERSIST IN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS LA THROUGH PARTS OF MS. RELATIVELY BACKED SURFACE WINDS, BENEATH A 40-60-KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND 300+ EFFECTIVE SRH. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WARM-SECTOR SUPERCELLS, SUCH AS PROGGED BY THE HRRR, HRRR-P AND WRF-ARW, SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. OTHERWISE, REGARDLESS OF WARM-SECTOR CONVECTIVE DENSITY, A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OFFER A RISK FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES. IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LESS INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WITH NORTHEAST/EASTERN EXTENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TONIGHT. ..GRAMS/WENDT.. 12/16/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LOUISIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FAR EASTERN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 600 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH THE PEAK TORNADO RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Thanks Janet, was wondering in obs thread why this was getting no attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Storm sw of Vicksburg means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 SC021-149-161800- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/ WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS- 1116 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES... AT 1115 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT GIBSON, OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 looks like a debris ball appears just after it moved on the town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 700... VALID 161724Z - 161900Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 700 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL LA. DISCUSSION...RECENT VAD DATA FROM KPOE AND KLCH CONTINUES TO SHOW LONG HODOGRAPHS (I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT) AND VERTICALLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE SOUTH. RECENT MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SMALL AREA OF 45 KT 850-MB WINDS OVER CENTRAL LA, MATCHING EXPECTATIONS BASED ON PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WELL, WITH MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING 2000 J/KG MLCAPE NOW STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST LA AND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL LA. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF THIS AREA. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 MS storm still PDS SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1125 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 MSC021-149-161800- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/ WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS- 1125 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES... AT 1124 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR YOKENA, OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Wow getting going early too, de Ridder storm is very concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 STILL PDS in MS EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 MSC021-149-161800- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/ WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS- 1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES... AT 1132 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR YOKENA, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SPECIFICALLY SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 700... VALID 161733Z - 161800Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 700 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA, A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY INTENSE TORNADO WITH POTENTIAL PEAK WINDS OF 110 TO 155 MPH (EF1-EF3) IS LIKELY ONGOING. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR SIGNATURES FROM KPOE AND KLCH AS OF 17:31Z REVEAL AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CHARACTERIZED BY A 0.5-0.9 DEGREE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY BETWEEN 61 AND 70 KT. A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ON RECENT RADAR SCANS. THESE SIGNATURES ARE OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STP BETWEEN 4 AND 5. PREVIOUS SIGNATURES WITHIN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS PRODUCED TORNADO-DAMAGE-ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS FROM 110 TO 155 MPH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR LIKELY STRONG TO POTENTIALLY INTENSE TORNADO. A TORNADO IS ONGOING AND MAY CONTINUE BASED ON THE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY CONTINUITY AND THE STORM MOVING WITHIN A FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Wow that looks like a reasonably strong tornado from the chaser pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Huge debris ball and TDS continues, Jesus... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Only 8 miles from the radar site. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Very much reminds me of the 2014 Vilonia, AR cell in reflectivity structure and persistence. Fortunately at this time its peak strength appears to be occurring in the Louisiana rurals NE of DeRidder. It may maintain or re-cycle before Alexandria, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 That CC drop is impressive, and obviously concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I was expecting to track at least 5 or 6 of these on radar on 5/20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F-5 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Hopefully the cell SW of Alexandria will cycle, looks like it's trying to, but Google earth shows the areas just north of Alexandria are fairly well populated and this looks to go right over them in about 30 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Tornado heading for the NW side of Jackson, MS. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Alexandria, LA is in very big trouble....Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Large debris ball southwest of Alexandria, still headed right for them and completely wrapped in rain. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I would call this a tornado emergency for Alexandria, Pineville, and Ball. Radar signature very clearly indicates an intense tornado in progress (EF3+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ALEXANDRIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1241 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ALEXANDRIA... The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Rapides Parish in central Louisiana... * Until 115 PM CST. * At 1239 PM CST, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was observed near Alexandria International Airport, moving northeast at 25 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for ALEXANDRIA. This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Alexandria and Alexandria International Airport around 1245 PM CST. Pineville around 100 PM CST. Tioga, Kingsville and Timber Trails around 105 PM CST. Ball and Paradise around 110 PM CST. Esler Regional Airport and Libuse around 115 PM CST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors.. Move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3147 9219 3147 9216 3146 9217 3145 9215 3143 9216 3142 9215 3120 9260 3129 9270 3141 9256 3141 9254 3148 9220 TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 230DEG 22KT 3128 9257 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC HAIL...<.75IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 BWER and intense couplet developing on the more discrete cell to the SE of the Alexandria storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 hopefully that blob and precip will help disrupt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 tower cam https://www.kalb.com/content/ipcams/481655511.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Not sure if this was mentioned yet: 50 minutes ago, tornado(es) reported very near Edwards, MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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