Doorman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest guidance suggests the potential for significant freezing rain not too far north and west of New York City. Based on the latest guidance, it is likely that an area stretching from West Milford, NJ across White Plains and to Danbury could pick up 0.10" to 0.25" freezing rain with the potential for more, especially in northwestern New Jersey. Some of the local media outlets (radio forecasts I heard coming into work this morning) are downplaying the freezing rain risk (the specific mention concerned not more than a few hundredths of an inch). However, those outlets may be using dated guidance and/or relying on the much warmer GFS to reach a conclusion that understates risk of icing. The 3 km NAM, 12 km NAM, and RGEM are very aggressive, both with amounts and the southern extent of the freezing rain. NWS just updated to expand the winter weather advisories a bit closer to the 5 boroughs. I suspect they may need a winter storm warning for the combo of snow, pellets and freezing rain accretion for the areas you mentioned. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Just so we’re all clear, you said nyc is an all rain event right? Mostly yes, they'll be some mixed precip at the onset but for NYC proper it'll mainly be a cold rain atm. It's the areas just N&W that'll deal with icy conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, Doorman said: Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I had to let some family members who live in Rockland county know that they may have a significant icing event tomorrow which they were unaware of. The NWS is only calling for about .10 inch of ZR. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: NWS just updated to expand the winter weather advisories a bit closer to the 5 boroughs. I suspect they may need a winter storm warning for the combo of snow, pellets and freezing rain accretion for the areas you mentioned. Agree. The models have been increasing the QPF numbers the last few runs that might allow some areas to reach the WSW criteria. Currently 32/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Current temp 34.7/DP 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I had to let some family members who live in Rockland county know that they may have a significant icing event tomorrow which they were unaware of. The NWS is only calling for about .10 inch of ZR. WTF? Hey head, where in Rockland is your family? I’m in northern Rockland(stony point ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg g said: Hey head, where in Rockland is your family? I’m in northern Rockland(stony point ) Suffern and New City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 How much ice do you really think will accumulate up here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Greg g said: How much ice do you really think will accumulate up here ? You are northern Rockland so you may see more snow/sleet than ZR but even by you .10-.25 is not unreasonable given what meso models are saying. It's southern parts of the county that could get more significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Mostly yes, they'll be some mixed precip at the onset but for NYC proper it'll mainly be a cold rain atm. It's the areas just N&W that'll deal with icy conditions. almost impossible for ZR to accrete on the streets of NYC unless it's been bitter cold for days--ground is still generally warm this time of year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I suspect the typical inland areas will be updated to Winter Storm Warnings later tonight for potential of 2-4" of sleet and up to 0.50" of freezing rain. The last time we had an ice storm warning here it was hoisted after the event was almost over the damage was already done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I had to let some family members who live in Rockland county know that they may have a significant icing event tomorrow which they were unaware of. The NWS is only calling for about .10 inch of ZR. WTF? While I think .10 might be low balling the icing threat the actual ice accretion can be a little nuanced. Just because an inch of freezing rain falls doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll all stick to cold surfaces. Though it will be pretty cold... so idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Just so we’re all clear, you said nyc is an all rain event right? Please be careful shoveling your Euro snow. If it's off by a tenth, you may be dealing with a full inch to remove in the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: While I think .10 might be low balling the icing threat the actual ice accretion can be a little nuanced. Just because an inch of freezing rain falls doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll all stick to cold surfaces. Though it will be pretty cold... so idk. The main roads aren't an issue because most of them will be pre-treated. The worst problems occur when the weather is unexpected which this will not be. Secondary roads will be a mess though. Any areas which have overhead power lines are at risk for loosing power and many tree branches might fall down. I remember a bad ice storm up in Hewitt from about ten years ago where nobody on that side of Greenwood Lake had power for over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: EURO? Ticked about 15-20 miles north with the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ticked about 15-20 miles north with the snow How does it look in the ZR department? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro shifted a bit further than that with mid-level temps. Shifts the sleet and freezing rain lines a good deal north on Tuesday. Still a good front end thump for those who can avoid sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ticked about 15-20 miles north with the snow Where would you say the EURO puts the southern edge of the 2" plus snow line roughly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: almost impossible for ZR to accrete on the streets of NYC unless it's been bitter cold for days--ground is still generally warm this time of year as well. It’s sleet I’m worried about, sleet accumulates more efficiently then any other form of frozen precip. If we get a couple hours of sleet in the northern city this could end up an impactful event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: Where would you say the EURO puts the southern edge of the 2" plus snow line roughly? I-287 give or take. Has some decent ZR like the other models just a bit lighter and slightly further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Severe weather down South is a good sign. System is cranked up and ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I-287 give or take. Has some decent ZR like the other models just a bit lighter and slightly further north I would say somewhere near Morristown with an approx. north-south gradient. But I would guess it ends up a bit further north. However, the initial burst of precip. has been trending more impressive. That could do some work late tonight. And it could result in less linear snow - sleet - freezing - rain - rain boundaries and more banding dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s sleet I’m worried about, sleet accumulates more efficiently then any other form of frozen precip. If we get a couple hours of sleet in the northern city this could end up an impactful event! Agree, also with a couple of inches if ice pellets and some ZR on top of that, the forecast of cold temperatures the next 2 days following would leave 2" of frozen cement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Severe weather down South is a good sign. System is cranked up and ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The main roads aren't an issue because most of them will be pre-treated. The worst problems occur when the weather is unexpected which this will not be. Secondary roads will be a mess though. Any areas which have overhead power lines are at risk for loosing power and many tree branches might fall down. I remember a bad ice storm up in Hewitt from about ten years ago where nobody on that side of Greenwood Lake had power for over a week. Nothing has been treated here not even Rt6. It's also still below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: NWS just updated to expand the winter weather advisories a bit closer to the 5 boroughs. I suspect they may need a winter storm warning for the combo of snow, pellets and freezing rain accretion for the areas you mentioned. Yes. It's possible. It will be interesting to see how things evolve this afternoon and evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: The streets here are covered with sand lol Since the November 15th debacle of last year , NYC has been salting and sanding the roads to death every time there’s is chance for a flurry . Bad for the cars bad for the roads . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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