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Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019


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Question is, if just some of these models hold serve, do they pop Ice Storm Warnings.  The event is on top of us.  Once that FZR starts falling it's too late.

I try not to be the guy running around the office telling everyone the sky is falling but there's some potentially hugely significant impacts and I don't think people have any idea what's up.

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19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Depending how heavy this initial shot comes in it’s possible there could be a surprising 2-3 hour period of snow in the area.  If it’s not heavy I’m not sure it’ll overcome the possible mid level warming 

That initial shot would also lead to more dynamic evaporational cooling putting areas closer or even in the city at greater risk for ZR overnight

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Question is, if just some of these models hold serve, do they pop Ice Storm Warnings.  The event is on top of us.  Once that FZR starts falling it's too late.
I try not to be the guy running around the office telling everyone the sky is falling but there's some potentially hugely significant impacts and I don't think people have any idea what's up.
I believe 0.5" is the threshold to hoist warnings. I see NWS Pittsburgh issued them. If anyone is curious, here is the number of days since the last ice storm warning by WFO3f4f66568d607863e7b4fc5ce849ed5a.jpg

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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35 minutes ago, Sanman 06 said:

It’s not sand. DSNY uses salt. And yes we are out there spreading it , And spreading a lot. without anything coming down. Upper management knows best I guess. Lol 

It’s non stop with even a hint of wintery precip. I guess they aren’t concerned about killing already stressed street trees. I’m going to start taking salt accumulation obs here on the uws.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Nws should issue ice storm warnings  for inland areas. 

There simply isn’t enough East gradient with this event to get areas just inland warm enough.  We basically have winds going 060-070 tonight at 5-10kts.  That works for the coast but might not even work for a place like EWR 

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There simply isn’t enough East gradient with this event to get areas just inland warm enough.  We basically have winds going 060-070 tonight at 5-10kts.  That works for the coast but might not even work for a place like EWR 

I'm not even sure it will work for places like Southern Westchester/CT Coast which right now are not under a WWA even though several models show temps at or below freezing until daybreak.

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The latest guidance suggests the potential for significant freezing rain not too far north and west of New York City. Based on the latest guidance, it is likely that an area stretching from West Milford, NJ across White Plains and to Danbury could pick up 0.10" to 0.25" freezing rain with the potential for more, especially in northwestern New Jersey.

Some of the local media outlets (radio forecasts I heard coming into work this morning) are downplaying the freezing rain risk (the specific mention concerned not more than a few hundredths of an inch). However, those outlets may be using dated guidance and/or relying on the much warmer GFS to reach a conclusion that understates risk of icing. The 3 km NAM, 12 km NAM, and RGEM are very aggressive, both with amounts and the southern extent of the freezing rain.

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest guidance suggests the potential for significant freezing rain not too far north and west of New York City. Based on the latest guidance, it is likely that an area stretching from West Milford, NJ across White Plains and to Danbury could pick up 0.10" to 0.25" freezing rain with the potential for more, especially in northwestern New Jersey.

Some of the local media outlets (radio forecasts I heard coming into work this morning) are downplaying the freezing rain risk (the specific mention concerned not more than a few hundredths of an inch). However, those outlets may be using dated guidance and/or relying on the much warmer GFS to reach a conclusion that understates risk of icing. The 3 km NAM, 12 km NAM, and RGEM are very aggressive, both with amounts and the southern extent of the freezing rain.

General public needs to take potential significant glaze accretion more seriously.  Media outlets need to get updated fast. 

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