North and West Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: If you're going to blame some one the only thing that can be blamed is the under forecasting by the models. Nothing that morning really indicated it would over perform. Why would they send plows out when the forecast called for 1 inch of snow? If commuters woke up and saw the forecast called for 3 to 6 half of them that drove wouldn't have. By the time the city wanted to deploy the plows and additional salt trucks traffic was already building. So now people complain when they don't have snow removal equipment out and also complain when they do. Which is it? Some people on here just like to hear themself complain. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I never saw the NAM go so heavy on freezing rain before. Even if just 25% of that freezes without running off, it will be a problem. I've honestly never seen the NAM show over an inch qpf of ice for White Plains this close to an event. Usually the icing is confined to the far NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Where did you get that map? It has no snow for the five boroughs!? Obviously that’s false we are getting at least an inch or two 18z NAM Kuchera shows maybe a half inch of snow at most. You can't look at those ridiculous maps that count ice as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Radar looks moist with the overrunning out ahead. And it looks relatively suppressed too. The mid-level precip. is also clearly and distinctly visible in KS and MO. There's probably going to be a quick burst of snow for many tonight. But this continues to look really icy locally. Maybe some paste and parachutes initially with the WAA but the powdery snow is confined to BGM, ALB, and SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Temp falling back nicely here now. Current temp 32.3/DP 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: I never saw the NAM go so heavy on freezing rain before. Even if just 25% of that freezes without running off, it will be a problem. It does look like precip in the area will become convective at times late tonight into midday tomorrow, so heavy rain is a given for the immediate NYC metro. The 18Z RPM and new HRRRv4 are showing some ice accretion amounts of 0.5-0.75" in the same general areas as the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Cut those ice maps in half and then subtract about half of that for runoff, so still looking at a narrow but widespread area of 0.25"-0.50" ice accretion. The freezing layer is confined to below 925mb on the 18z 3k NAM soundings. Even places like interior Union County don't really get above freezing at the surface until 14z or later. Most of the interior never really gets to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: I never saw the NAM go so heavy on freezing rain before. Even if just 25% of that freezes without running off, it will be a problem. I live right below where it says 1.52 in central Morris County.. I'm scared lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 @RU848789 and just as you say that and post an updated map, NWS PHI uses the old criteria for the warnings and issues a Winter Storm Warning for .25" of ice. Maybe they are just fudging it a little bit and going for impacts and combination of 2-4" of snow and .25ice combined, those two alone dont meet warning criteria though. At least not from the map you posted. As i suspected... Although the snow totals and the ice totals individually fall below Warning criteria, believe that the combination of the two will result in Warning level impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The radar LOOKS as if snow is very close to NYC is that Virga or is that snow getting close ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The radar LOOKS as if snow is very close to NYC is that Virga or is that snow getting close ?What radar? Nothing is showing thatSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: What radar? Nothing is showing that Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Did you even look at the radar ? = https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Did you even look at the radar ? = https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yesThat's all virga. The moisture is still south of a line from reading PA to Philadelphia Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, NycStormChaser said: That's all virgia. The moisture is still south of a line from reading PA to Philadelphia Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It makes a difference because of record books That assumes NYC even measures it in time. Remember a few Saturdays ago they likely got 0.5-0.7 or so but never measured in time and reported a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The HRRR shows substantial precip arriving in the area from SW to NE between 11PM and Midnight. Some areas could see snow earlier and the earlier the snow comes in the more you will get. By sunrise NYC and most of the immediate coast should be just above freezing, except for the usual spots which tend to hang on a little longer. 20-25 miles NW of the city is a different ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The 18z RGEM is a tick less icy/snowy for the immediate coast. Still keeps areas North of I-80 mostly frozen or freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: we have gotten so spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s on long island, that last winter really was a bummer...I hope this is not one of those winters where LI is the rain snow line, that would be disappointing It seems we have returned to the usual N and W winters being better the last few years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It makes a difference because of record books The record books are more about accurately recording what actually happens. Not getting much in a marginal situation isn’t that bad. But 1-26-15 is a whole different story with such a major underperformance and shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: we have gotten so spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s on long island, that last winter really was a bummer...I hope this is not one of those winters where LI is the rain snow line, that would be disappointing If you believe in warming global temperatures long term, that would likely result in more amplified patterns which would typically result in stronger systems tracking closer to the coast. Future major snow storms on Long Island might become dependent on strong blocking patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If you believe in warming global temperatures long term, that would likely result in more amplified patterns which would typically result in stronger systems tracking closer to the coast. Future major snow storms on Long Island might become dependent on strong blocking patterns. I think the cold AMO incoming will shut things off significantly in a few years. It may not be 1970s and 80s bad but I'm betting we will start seeing colder winters with less major storms more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: That's all virga. The moisture is still south of a line from reading PA to Philadelphia Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk All NWS reporting stations in eastern PA are reporting cloudy skies without any precipitation as of 4pm. I saw a brief period of light snow during the midday hour and that has been it with the exception of some very light snow grains from time to time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bluesnow said: Talk about frustrating to be on the coast. Sickening actually Its disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: we have gotten so spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s on long island, that last winter really was a bummer...I hope this is not one of those winters where LI is the rain snow line, that would be disappointing I lived out there during the 70s and 80s and yes that is what you got. As they say the good times don’t last. The flip side is it is only December and there is plenty of winter left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: Makes you wonder. Why did the 80s and 90s (for the most part) suck for snow on the island. Then come the 2000s it totally changed The 80s was largely a ton of bad luck. It was an abnormally low snow period for the area. NYC should never go 8 years between 8 inch snow events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Its disgusting The last decade or so was an anomaly, not the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The last decade or so was an anomaly, not the norm. I think it's cyclical. 50s and 60s snowy in the tri state with lots of large snowstorms. 70s were cold and dry 80s garbage 90s garbage outside of 3 winter one historic 2000 2001 winter was above average. Only 5 below average snowfall winters this century. Perhaps we are heading back to the bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think it's cyclical. 50s and 60s snowy in the tri state with lots of large snowstorms. 70s were cold and dry 80s garbage 90s garbage outside of 3 winter one historic 2000 2001 winter was above average. Only 5 below average snowfall winters this century. Perhaps we are heading back to the bad pattern. Even in 2017-18 we really lucked out, and the massive WAR helped us cash in on storms like the post-New Years blizzard. But that large ridge also steers storms inland and over the coast. Wouldn't shock me at all to see a return to much better conditions inland and more coastal rainstorms. That's more typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The last decade or so was an anomaly, not the norm. I honestly don't think there's much of a norm anymore. We're chasing moving targets and getting increasingly more unusual pattern combos due to AGW. I think we'll try to revert back to the 80s style -AMO pattern but it'll be nothing like that decade when you'll compare the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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