snywx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 2:57 AM, eduggs said: I agree on the ice threat. 800mb temps still warm to about 5C right up through the mid-Hudson valley. The 0z NAM increased the QPF with the first 6 hours of the main WAA push so there's a little snow thump there. But after that mid-level warmth wins out like previous runs. NW NJ keeps showing up as a focus area for icing potential. But I think lots of areas from NEPA to SENY through SCT are at risk for some moderate ice. Expand NAM Soundings at MGJ show a sleet signature with the warm layer between 750-850. I think the icing threat will be more pronounced in NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 2:57 AM, eduggs said: I agree on the ice threat. 800mb temps still warm to about 5C right up through the mid-Hudson valley. The 0z NAM increased the QPF with the first 6 hours of the main WAA push so there's a little snow thump there. But after that mid-level warmth wins out like previous runs. NW NJ keeps showing up as a focus area for icing potential. But I think lots of areas from NEPA to SENY through SCT are at risk for some moderate ice. Expand Agree with the thoughts on the interior sections with the icing potential. The CAD is tough to scour out in those areas. The only thing that might hold down the icing are the temperatures forecasted to be around the freezing mark instead of being in the mid 20's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The Pacific jet pattern has really wiped out any Arctic air for us. Normally we would be seeing much colder temps right now in the wake of the last system. This should've been a good SWFE but because there's no cold air to be found we're scraping the barrel again. Anyways definitely keep an eye on temps tonight. If they're on the warmer side then the system will end up warmer. If they're colder then it'll be colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, HVSnowLover said: RGEM continues the colder trend, looks like a pretty impactful icing event for many in the area may be unfolding Expand Bad ice event just to the north and west of NYC. City starts off as snow then turns to ice then rain with temps in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:28 AM, Snow88 said: Bad ice event just to the north and west of NYC. City starts off as snow then turns to ice then rain with temps in the mid 30s. Expand If NYC's temps are 35+ tomorrow morning then you aren't gonna see much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:24 AM, SnoSki14 said: The Pacific jet pattern has really wiped out any Arctic air for us. Normally we would be seeing much colder temps right now in the wake of the last system. This should've been a good SWFE but because there's no cold air to be found we're scraping the barrel again. Anyways definitely keep an eye on temps tonight. If they're on the warmer side then the system will end up warmer. If they're colder then it'll be colder. Expand There's very few good SWFE events anywhere near the coast in this area, but this should be a pretty typical one if not even a warmer than usual one. Quick snow/sleet to rain on the coast, snow/sleet eventually to rain just inland, and icing further inland. The best area for this will be along I-90. I don't see anything to make this other than typical. SWFEs aren't friendly to this area and never will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:30 AM, SnoSki14 said: If NYC's temps are 35+ tomorrow morning then you aren't gonna see much. Expand The temp tomorrow morning has very little to do with what happens tomorrow night. The key to the storm will be how fast and heavy the initial precip comes in. If its heavy enough the dynamic cooling will allow for a period of snow or sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 2:47 AM, purduewx80 said: There may be some dynamic cooling as frontogenesis increases late tomorrow evening, but with the SE ridge amped up like it is on the EPS below, it will be hard to avoid torching the layer just above the surface. This could be a fairly bad ice storm near White Plains, NNJ, southern CT imo. Expand People need to look at the sounding on the NAM, that’s definitely not snow north and west of the city, there is a very pronounced mid-level warm nose. Verbatim, that’s a nasty ice storm NW of NYC if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:48 AM, snowman19 said: People need to look at the sounding on the NAM, that’s definitely not snow north and west of the city, there is a very pronounced mid-level warm nose. Verbatim, that’s a nasty ice storm NW of NYC if correct Expand Yup, look at soundings not 850mb maps. Very easy for a sneaky 750-800mb warm layer to come in. In these the warm air often comes in first above 850mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I have a feeling this is going to overperform. Cmc looked colder also this looks like bad ice storm to me 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Winter Weather Advisory time extended here from 1 pm today until 10 am Tuesday for up to 2" of snow followed by ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6z Nam is colder and very icy even for the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Temp made it down to 33 here but has now risen a bit back up to 34/DP 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 Good Monday morning everyone, It's Dec 16 and soon go-time for a widespread winter weather event that might not yield much snow-sleet in NYC but VERY close to the city there will be significant snow and ice, as noted by others previously. The city may see a period of flurries midday today? The event is tonight-Tuesday which is a delay from two days ago (initial snow thrust down to the Mason Dixon line this morning instead of I78-I80). Still while the modeling was ~60mi too far north, thats not too bad from two days ago. Added four graphics courtesy of Weather.US for the ECMWF, and one from the NWS experimental HREF glaze prediction, which better be wrong, or we've quite a few power outages tomorrow morning in the 1/4-1/2 inch glaze area from southern Ct to northwest NJ. NWS WPC glaze and snow predictions are less. So there is uncertainty on amounts of snow-sleet/ice but we know something wintry will impact travel in our area later tonight through Tuesday. Probably my last post on this, except post storm NOHRSC etc assessment of modeling. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Snow alert for NYC per DSNY Extra plows and salt spreaders will be out starting 8am. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 HRRR running now, I believe it is close to being in its wheel house am I mistaken about that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:51 AM, wdrag said: Good Monday morning everyone, It's Dec 16 and soon go-time for a widespread winter weather event that might not yield much snow-sleet in NYC but VERY close to the city there will be significant snow and ice, as noted by others previously. The city may see a period of flurries midday today? The event is tonight-Tuesday which is a delay from two days ago (initial snow thrust down to the Mason Dixon line this morning instead of I78-I80). Still while the modeling was ~60mi too far north, thats not too bad from two days ago. Added four graphics courtesy of Weather.US for the ECMWF, and one from the NWS experimental HREF glaze prediction, which better be wrong, or we've quite a few power outages tomorrow morning in the 1/4-1/2 inch glaze area from southern Ct to northwest NJ. NWS WPC glaze and snow predictions are less. So there is uncertainty on amounts of snow-sleet/ice but we know something wintry will impact travel in our area later tonight through Tuesday. Probably my last post on this, except post storm NOHRSC etc assessment of modeling. Expand 6z shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Temps were well above the forecast this morning. Only got down to 34F. This will be an all rain event from NYC south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:28 PM, SnoSki14 said: Temps were well above the forecast this morning. Only got down to 34F. This will be an all rain event from NYC south. Expand That's not how it works lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Areas just to the north and west of NYC is anowier on the euro . NYC also sees some snow. I am shocked there isnt a WWA for NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:28 PM, SnoSki14 said: Temps were well above the forecast this morning. Only got down to 34F. This will be an all rain event from NYC south. Expand Oh stop it dude! That’s just false the dew points are in the low 20’s 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:31 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Oh stop it dude! That’s just false the dew points are in the low 20’s Expand Dew point is mportant. This isnt going to be a major event in NYC. Snow to sleet to rain with temps in the low to mid 30s. Areas just got he west will have alot of problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:38 PM, Snow88 said: Dew pointed are more important. This isnt going to be a major event in NYC. Snow to sleet to rain with temps in the low to mid 30s. Areas just got he west will have alot of problems. Expand Yea but this could end up being very icy tonight even for the five boroughs especially after the initial overrunning heavy snow that will stick. They should issue a winter weather advisory for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:45 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Yea but this could end up being very icy tonight even for the five boroughs especially after the initial overrunning heavy snow that will stick. They should issue a winter weather advisory for sure Expand They should but they are so hesitant lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:28 PM, Snow88 said: That's not how it works lol Expand It reinforces my point that there's a lack of cold present. Only NW areas will get snow/ice, probably 30+ miles from the city. SNE should score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 So what is the timing of this storm? My wife is headed to New Providence today. Will she have trouble getting home this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:47 PM, SnoSki14 said: It reinforces my point that there's a lack of cold present. Only NW areas will get snow/ice, probably 30+ miles from the city. SNE should score. Expand Lol it’s 33 degrees how’s that not cold! You ever heard of dynamic and evaporative cooking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:48 PM, Wild Turkey said: So what is the timing of this storm? My wife is headed to New Providence today. Will she have trouble getting home this evening? Expand The real precip comes in tonight around 7-9pm west to east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:03 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Lol it’s 33 degrees how’s that not cold! You ever heard of dynamic and evaporative cooking? Expand Temps get colder when the precip comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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