RockawayRowdies Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Ice ice baby... Rockaway boro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 56 days until pitchers and catchers report. 62 days until Presidents Day which I mark as the unofficial end to the heart of Winter/Snow season. With that being said, the last two Winters have been very back loaded. NJX I am right there with you especially since the Yankees landed Cole but that said we have OCEANS of time until the Boys Of Summer are at it and hopefully we get to track and see a big snowstorm or 5 in these parts before we PLAY BALL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 This is a good signature for significant turbulence and compression on the JFK TWDR. NE winds near 10KT at the surface and SW winds 50KT+ at 4000 feet. This wind difference often slows down air traffic into the NY metro airports. A 767 reported severe turbulence coming into JFK earlier this morning. RGEM forecast soundings valid at 15Z show what would be a nice hodograph if there were surface based instability. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Not that it's going to make a large difference one way or another but winds have flipped to out of the Northeast and temperatures have begun to cool again. Temperature sitting at 30 degrees with light freezing rain continuing. You can see the slight sag in the isobars to our N & NE indicative of some CAD on mesoanalysis. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I’m driving on West St by the Freedom Tower. Some big (but very thin) pieces of ice falling down from the tower to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 30 and Freezing rain here. It snowed for about 2 hours after midnight and I picked up a whole .50 inch which is a bummer, 13 inches for the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Bronx, NY: 32° with freezing rain Wow wheres that? I saw nothing like that, at least when I left at 730am. Looks like in one of the large Parks like Van Courtlandt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Sleet and freezing rain mixed in Putnam County. There's some pretty good icing in the hills. Main roads were plastered with salt before and during the precip. so they are just wet. The GFS or even a model consensus worked out pretty well up here. What threw people off was the shift towards an initial burst of snow over the last 24-36 hours and the very high EPS snow probs. Soundings consistently showed a 3hr window or less to accumulate snow. After that all guidance showed freezing rain with some sleet. This can't really be a model bust if the outcome was within the model envelope. Forecasters hedged towards the ECM on snow accum. and the GFS was more right this time. It was a minor forecasting bust but one that would have been very difficult to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: I was surprised to see JFK hang onto freezing rain longer than LGA and EWR. I think the high may have been placed just right to drain cold air down the island. Most of the UHI had a wind off the relatively warmer sound. Subtle trajectory differences and terrain obviously played a factor, too. SPECI KJFK 170943Z 04010KT 7SM -RA BKN009 OVC023 01/00 A3000 RMK RAB42FZRAE42 P0004 T00060000 METAR KJFK 170851Z 05010KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC023 00/00 A3003 RMK SLP169 P0005 60023 T00000000 56031 SPECI KJFK 170843Z 06009KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC025 00/00 A3004 RMK P0005 T00000000 KJFK 170751Z 06013KT 7SM -FZRA FEW005 OVC019 00/M01 A3005 RMK SLP174 P0011 T00001006 KJFK 170651Z COR 06011KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 BKN025 OVC075 00/M01 A3010 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 SLP191 P0007 T00001006 SPECI KJFK 170630Z 07008KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC022 00/M01 A3012 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 P0003 T00001006 METAR KJFK 170551Z 06006KT 6SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN023 OVC035 01/00 A3012 RMK RAE11B49FZRAB11E49 SLP200 931000 P0008 60030 T00060000 10022 20000 58024 SPECI KJFK 170511Z 04005KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC024 00/M01 A3015 RMK RAE11FZRAB11 P0001 T00001006 METAR KJFK 170451Z 06006KT 6SM RA BR FEW009 OVC026 01/M01 A3015 RMK RAB36FZRAE36PLE50 SLP210 P0011 T00061011 401220000 SPECI KJFK 170437Z 07005KT 6SM RAPL BR FEW009 OVC028 01/M01 A3016 RMK RAB36FZRAE36 P0007 T00061011 METAR KJFK 170430Z AUTO 08005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0006 METAR KJFK 170425Z AUTO 07005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0005 METAR KJFK 170351Z 07004KT 9SM -FZRAPL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK AO2 RAE51FZRAB51 SLP219 P0004 T00061011 METAR KJFK 170350Z AUTO 07004KT 9SM -RA -PL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK P0004 I was a little suprised too at how down by JFK reporting more icy conditions, until the ENE winds hit me in the face, I thought wind must be lining up with the Sound up here. Also, there is a little ice when you go high enough up lower manhattan high rises. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Lots of ice on the trees and decks in New Providence, roads seem fine though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 The mid-level charts never looked good for snow locally. Trof axis and mid-level lows too far N&W. But many cases in the past have shown that a burst of overrunning precip. into a marginal airmass can produce over a short duration. We obviously did not produce in those critical early hours. I don't know how you can know for sure which way things will break when you are along a sharp thermal gradient. The outcome is so sensitive to minor differences. I guess nobody should have been so quick to discount the GFS. It seems like maybe the practice of discarding outlier model solutions might lead to suboptimal statistical forecast verification. I'm not sure how much snow fell up north, but it consistently showed mixing to ALB with snow to the Canadian border and ski country. It's too bad model soundings aren't publically available for the ECMWF hi-res. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I want to clarify JFK -FZRA I took a plane that has sat all night at JFK at 6am By that point it was +1C and -RA There was no need to deice...no ice had accumulated on the cold plane through the night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 We’re still bouncing back and forth around freezing or just below, roads are fine but the trees are definitely showing the bit of weight from the ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Ice accretion at MMU. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 54 minutes ago, dWave said: Wow wheres that? I saw nothing like that, at least when I left at 730am. Looks like in one of the large Parks like Van Courtlandt? It's not far from Van Cortlandt Park. From there northward into Yonkers, there was quite a bit of ice. Farther south and east, the ice was much less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I have about 1/2" ice on all surfaces now. Hearing limbs starting to crack in the woods now. Still stuck at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Still freezing drizzle. Car bounced back between 29 and 30 while I was driving at lunch time. Roads and other treated surfaces are fine but my car still hasn't melted and most other surfaces are still encased in ice. Judging by radar, looks like we have at least another few hours of this to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: 56 days until pitchers and catchers report. 62 days until Presidents Day which I mark as the unofficial end to the heart of Winter/Snow season. With that being said, the last two Winters have been very back loaded. yeah in the past I always looked at President's Day as the end of anything that would be long lasting on the ground or even come at all. But the last few years have seen a March resurgence in snows and even snowpack (last year we had 10 inches and it hung around for close to a week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yeah in the past I always looked at President's Day as the end of anything that would be long lasting on the ground or even come at all. But the last few years have seen a March resurgence in snows and even snowpack (last year we had 10 inches and it hung around for close to a week) Had over 30" of snow here March of 2018. Last March was snowy as well but not on the same level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 28/28/N1-4/Heavy freezing rain @wdrag This is getting bad, I've got .5" of ice on everything. I fell 4 times going down to the mailbox. The cars are a solid block of ice to the point I'm afraid I'm going to break a window chipping away at the ice. The best part - It's still raining!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 hours ago, purduewx80 said: I was surprised to see JFK hang onto freezing rain longer than LGA and EWR. I think the high may have been placed just right to drain cold air down the island. Most of the UHI had a wind off the relatively warmer sound. Subtle trajectory differences and terrain obviously played a factor, too. SPECI KJFK 170943Z 04010KT 7SM -RA BKN009 OVC023 01/00 A3000 RMK RAB42FZRAE42 P0004 T00060000 METAR KJFK 170851Z 05010KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC023 00/00 A3003 RMK SLP169 P0005 60023 T00000000 56031 SPECI KJFK 170843Z 06009KT 7SM -FZRA BKN009 OVC025 00/00 A3004 RMK P0005 T00000000 KJFK 170751Z 06013KT 7SM -FZRA FEW005 OVC019 00/M01 A3005 RMK SLP174 P0011 T00001006 KJFK 170651Z COR 06011KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 BKN025 OVC075 00/M01 A3010 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 SLP191 P0007 T00001006 SPECI KJFK 170630Z 07008KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC022 00/M01 A3012 RMK RAE30FZRAB30 P0003 T00001006 METAR KJFK 170551Z 06006KT 6SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN023 OVC035 01/00 A3012 RMK RAE11B49FZRAB11E49 SLP200 931000 P0008 60030 T00060000 10022 20000 58024 SPECI KJFK 170511Z 04005KT 6SM -FZRA BR FEW006 OVC024 00/M01 A3015 RMK RAE11FZRAB11 P0001 T00001006 METAR KJFK 170451Z 06006KT 6SM RA BR FEW009 OVC026 01/M01 A3015 RMK RAB36FZRAE36PLE50 SLP210 P0011 T00061011 401220000 SPECI KJFK 170437Z 07005KT 6SM RAPL BR FEW009 OVC028 01/M01 A3016 RMK RAB36FZRAE36 P0007 T00061011 METAR KJFK 170430Z AUTO 08005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0006 METAR KJFK 170425Z AUTO 07005KT 8SM -FZRA -PL OVC036 01/M01 A3017 RMK P0005 METAR KJFK 170351Z 07004KT 9SM -FZRAPL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK AO2 RAE51FZRAB51 SLP219 P0004 T00061011 METAR KJFK 170350Z AUTO 07004KT 9SM -RA -PL OVC034 01/M01 A3018 RMK P0004 thats indeed a strange situation, but Central Park still retained freezing temps longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 46 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Had over 30" of snow here March of 2018. Last March was snowy as well but not on the same level. my favorite March for snow was 2015, it was an extension of February. March being snowy by itself really doesn't do anything for me, it has to be an extension of a snowy winter for it to "feel" like a real winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: I want to clarify JFK -FZRA I took a plane that has sat all night at JFK at 6am By that point it was +1C and -RA There was no need to deice...no ice had accumulated on the cold plane through the night so JFK didn't get above freezing until 6 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 hours ago, purduewx80 said: This is a good signature for significant turbulence and compression on the JFK TWDR. NE winds near 10KT at the surface and SW winds 50KT+ at 4000 feet. This wind difference often slows down air traffic into the NY metro airports. A 767 reported severe turbulence coming into JFK earlier this morning. RGEM forecast soundings valid at 15Z show what would be a nice hodograph if there were surface based instability. the airport should have been closed...we've had some pretty bad incidents in this kind of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the airport should have been closed...we've had some pretty bad incidents in this kind of weather They were never going to close JFK, especially at that hour with all of the flights arriving from Europe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the airport should have been closed...we've had some pretty bad incidents in this kind of weather it was safe to operate, just much slower than normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: it was safe to operate, just much slower than normal. I guess I've always worried after a couple of close calls we've had (LGA has had them too.) Remember December 1995 when a plane slid off the runway at JFK? I think a similar incident happened at LGA more recently too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Still light freezing rain here. Current temp of 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just landed at westchester airport. 400 foot elevation Plenty of ice on all surfaces including runway 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now