Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Becoming increasingly concerned regarding Monday and into the early part of Tuesday. While the global guidance may have a meh look or one that portrays us dodging a bullet, the mesos which are now beginning to get into range are seeing things differently. Snow will over spread the region early Monday. Most guidance is trending notably colder and some mesos are developing a weak slp off the coast. This is allowing the flow to maintain more of a Northerly component. This keeps surface temps below freezing for a good part of Eastern PA thru Tuesday morning. Sleet and freezing rain could be an issue during the day on Monday all the way thru early Tueaday for parts of SE PA particularly the low lying and favored NE suburbs. Definitely need to be watching this as guidance is starting to honk on the potential for a fair amount of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Ralph - Haven't the Nam and Euro trended slightly South also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said: Ralph - Haven't the Nam and Euro trended slightly South also? Yes as have the GFS and icon. As I type this the 12z nam is ticking S as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 This looks like it will be the 5th time we have seem some sort of snow already in my area and it is only mid Dec. Granted all have been under 1" but that has to account for something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 12k nam is colder to start then is warmer at the surface after 54 hrs. I urge caution with that. Keep an eye on the weakness that it is depicting after 50 hrs east of the VA Capes. There is a slight N of E component to the wind vectors. That feature has also nudged south. If in fact that is real and continues to be shown it could help lock in the 2m cold more than what is being modeled. Going to be a diff of 1 degree either side for alot of folks imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Steve agreed 100% will be a battle to scour out the LL warm air and will likely take till toward evening to get above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 12z mesos are quite cold on Monday morning. For some areas being inline for the biggest event of the season so far, its awfully quiet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Yeah i think the last few under performers got them cautious. This looks ok for N&W of I95 and is trending south to some degree. Also a positive note the ECM cuts off the precipitation soon after the change to rain for the snow/mix crowd so may not be one of those situations where you get the winter stuff and it is washed away. Glass half full 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Not looking like much front end snow....but sheesh if this amount of ZR were to fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I'm just never a fan of the snow, to sleet, to rain scenarios. They never play out well around here. The changeover is always sooner than modeled. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fields27 said: I'm just never a fan of the snow, to sleet, to rain scenarios. They never play out well around here. The changeover is always sooner than modeled. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Out here in western Berks we seem to hold on to the frozen longer then forecast. A few occasions last year we never changed to rain. I think we are in a good spot this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Out here in western Berks we seem to hold on to the frozen longer then forecast. A few occasions last year we never changed to rain. I think we are in a good spot this time As long as it's not freezing rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: Out here in western Berks we seem to hold on to the frozen longer then forecast. A few occasions last year we never changed to rain. I think we are in a good spot this time Yep same here in NW Chesco....it's easy to change from Snow to non-snow of course....but going from ZR to plain rain is the problem....no doubt we will change to snow faster than progged but struggle to get above freezing especially the higher spots like around here.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 0z NAM is colder....more frozen. Wind vectors have increased Northerly component at 10m with a NE/NNE trajectory thanks to a weak surface wave off the DelMarVa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 0z NAM is colder....more frozen. Wind vectors have increased Northerly component at 10m with a NE/NNE trajectory thanks to a weak surface wave off the DelMarVa. The initial “thump” looks good, but what happens on the surface maps following is downright strange looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 RGEM is colder and remains below freezing majority of the event. Thump is non existent but signaling a major icing event with the 2nd wave interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 My glass half full had a leak trends have been unfavorable ever since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 ECM is a non event outside of some minor icing in Bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Winter Weather Advisory in effect here for 1" of snow follow by one tenth of an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I’m going to be glued to this thread over the next 20 hours. Husband has a company Christmas party in Lawrenceville, NJ... and we have tickets to see a Miyazaki film tomorrow night at Oxford Valley. I’m originally from TN where there aren’t many snow plows when weather gets bad so we learn to stay far away from each other in case we slip and slide.... but up here, most cars seem to ride each other’s bumpers when the road is covered with snow or ice so I prefer to give driving in it a miss if possible. I was happy to read that Wiggum thinks things might be looking positive for a real winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Furrawn said: I’m going to be glued to this thread over the next 20 hours. Husband has a company Christmas party in Lawrenceville, NJ... and we have tickets to see a Miyazaki film tomorrow night at Oxford Valley. I’m originally from TN where there aren’t many snow plows when weather gets bad so we learn to stay far away from each other in case we slip and slide.... but up here, most cars seem to ride each other’s bumpers when the road is covered with snow or ice so I prefer to give driving in it a miss if possible. I was happy to read that Wiggum thinks things might be looking positive for a real winter. My first thought is it shouldn't be too bad due to temps near freezing, traffic during the day, and road salting etc. But it is the weather so stay tuned! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: My first thought is it shouldn't be too bad due to temps near freezing, traffic during the day, and road salting etc. But it is the weather so stay tuned! Thank you, KamuSnow! I’ll be checking this thread multiple times an hour... partly due to making decisions tomorrow, but also because I love when there’s possible winter weather afoot and all of you start posting a lot- it’s wonderful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The wife and her friends were planning on attending an event at Mt. Hope tomorrow night. I told her she's gonna have to play it by ear. I don't want here going anywhere near the turnpike in icy conditions. Looks like it'll be a now-casting event... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 RGEM, HRDPS, and 3k NAM all take the slp under us now for this event which is a new development. ICON does too but not counting global guidance. Mesos are precariously close to being a major ice event in the N part of my county (Bucks). Ticking closer and closer.....and colder....and Souther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: My first thought is it shouldn't be too bad due to temps near freezing, traffic during the day, and road salting etc. But it is the weather so stay tuned! This is happening mostly overnight Monday fyi so Tuesday early will be a mess in many areas in the Interior and favored areas that hang on to the cold longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 10m wind vectors on mesos pivoting to a NEasterly component lending credence to there being a surface wave to the east helping to lock in the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 This was progged to drive into Pitt even Buffalo on guidance just a few days ago so to say this has merely ticked S is an understatement. Some areas are going to wake up to an icy sleety mess Tuesday AM. NAM 3K RGEM HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 This event has been a mighty consistent storm track for the last week with a slight jog to the south over the last 2 days - JB and most guidance has always had the low to the south of the M/D line since last Monday ....what I suspect will happen is some initial snow with the overrunning warm front and then a pretty quick change to non-snow....but of course the further N and W you go from the I95 corridor the tougher it will be to scour out the LL cold - so some moderate icing (ZR over IP) likely from the PA Turnpike north and west. The bigger issue in my mind is how much precipitation is involved. Think we see a dry slot tomorrow afternoon and then many spots will rise to above freezing from the PA Turnpike south and east. Also, still keeping an eye on next weekend....could be a significant event from this vantage point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 WXSIM for NW Chesco sees this as a pretty minor "winter" event with some light snow developing by 7am and continuing off and on through much of the day with around 1.0" of snow before mixing with IP by 4pm - then a pretty quick transition to plain rain heavy at times by 9pm in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Winter Weather Advisory time extended here from 1 pm today until 10 am Tuesday for up to 2" of snow followed by ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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