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12/17 Messy Mix


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm surprised this keeps tickling south. At some point these usually start ticking back north a little but the NAO block seems to be doing some work...toggling more recent runs vs runs 24-30 hours ago, the heights in SE Canada are definitely lower on the more recent runs. 

The shortwave in the plains is also not as deep. A combo of both of these things. 

I did the same. Comparing it to 12z yesterday valid 6z Tuesday, noticeable difference. 6z euro is almost congrats to those who never get congrats in these. LOL. I still have the north bounces in my mind, but maybe this is one of the examples where that rule may not work out. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm surprised this keeps tickling south. At some point these usually start ticking back north a little but the NAO block seems to be doing some work...toggling more recent runs vs runs 24-30 hours ago, the heights in SE Canada are definitely lower on the more recent runs. 

The shortwave in the plains is also not as deep. A combo of both of these things. 

We mentioned this yesterday and someone accused of us of it being wishing for more snow in our BY

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19 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Really?

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... With near zonal flow a progressive patter develops, and dry conditions will be short lived into early Monday. Surface high briefly builds behind the departing low to the north, and moves offshore Monday. Breezy conditions will be diminishing Sunday night as the high builds. The next system to impact the forecast area comes Monday as the high pushes offshore and a warm front develops and approaches from the southwest while at the same time, an area of low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the cold air will be replaced as high pressure tracks off shore Monday. With the progressive low have leaned toward a slightly warmer solutions, unlike the GFS and ECMWF. 

That office has had a very rough go of it lately.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha P sunny here..

Yeah that's not happening. Lol. 06z euro qpf is too far south based on ML look. Actually that's probably true on most model runs in these setups. Focus the qpf closer to the low level front and then ignore where that nice 600-700 stuff is going on and you get a stripe of 6-7" and everyone starts going "models busted!!"....well sort of. They busted on qpf but they were probably correct on the midlevel features.  

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's not happening. Lol. 06z euro qpf is too far south based on ML look. Actually that's probably true on most model runs in these setups. Focus the qpf closer to the low level front and then ignore where that nice 600-700 stuff is going on and you get a stripe of 6-7" and everyone starts going "models busted!!"....well sort of. They busted on qpf but they were probably correct on the midlevel features.  

Oh, I know...tongue firmly in cheek.

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Euro is literally on its own right now with that suppressed look. 

It's been leading the charge though...yesterday it was on its own for keeping the N of pike to S NH crowd all snow...now pretty much all guidance at least shows that. 

I do expect the trend to halt at some point here though and prob tickle back N a little. The question is whether we get another round of colder/south solutions before that reversal happens. 

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Nice ... Euro squares off against the NAM

GFS is in NAM's corner more so than not.  I mean ...I just accept the run-to-run vicissitudes of the NAM as built in, and once accounting for those as a given aspect ...it's performing remarkably consistent within that framework - haha. 

But, the Euro being pancakes with no butter and syrup mashed comparing to either of those former two solutions ( or their blend) is an interesting quandary now passing into the outer edge of shorter range.  I suspect this 12z ( in particular ) may see either camp adjust - could also be they are all wrong and reality finds a verification straight compromised in between.

Have to remember ..these are fact"similes," not fact"exactitude" of the atmosphere. It is then up to the analytics and experience of the forecaster to pick and choose, and, ..pick and choose particular aspects too.  That's another thing.  One can pick overall storm morphology from one tool ... and reserve the right to pick the ptype layout from the other ( for example), even though the other could be quite obviously wrong about the storm morphology. That's a whole 'nother flavor of headache that comes along with this business.

That all said...this system is almost sub-pedestrian looking.  Unlikely to go much beyond - maybe it'll amp up in these closing cycles ...or go away entirely.  I almost hope that happens just for the Schadenfreude of it. Come to think about it.. .it's a been quite awhile since we've suffered the ignominy of a true whiff - talkin' wipe the board sunny skies whiff.  It may not be possible for that scale-and degree of f-up by the models this day age, so maybe if judging the modern day tech and carrying conceit about where we are with things should go by the lowest common denominator for success?   That's really what the state of the art is: just slightly above the sunny whiff.  

Kidding there ... a little.

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