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12/17 Messy Mix


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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is always fun for some laughs. I think it was powderfreak who once said that nobody would really pay attention to it if it came out at 1 instead of 930...lol. 

I was spewing a little hyperbole there...some pingers actually prob make it past the pike that run but not by much. Amazing how it changed like 100 miles in one run. 

The NAM has long has a south bias with these systems.  It’s not as bad as it once was but I’m not sure I’ve seen an SWFE where the NAM beyond 48 didn’t verify too far south 

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The NAM never seems to handle these events well...outside of the CAD in the valleys but like Ray said it’s often too aggressive with mlvl warmth. Also seems to want to be too dry at the onset of things. After all the experience we have had with these in the boards...you almost don’t even need to look at models inside if like 24-48 hours to see how these event's will perform 

 

I came home to...hardly any snow pack. When I left the morning I still had some inches but it’s virtually gone 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM never seems to handle these events well...outside of the CAD in the valleys but like Ray said it’s often too aggressive with mlvl warmth. Also seems to want to be too dry at the onset of things. After all the experience we have had with these in the boards...you almost don’t even need to look at models inside if like 24-48 hours to see how these event's will perform 

 

I came home to...hardly any snow pack. When I left the morning I still had some inches but it’s virtually gone 

Its often right when aggressive with mid level warmth...

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The models appear to be allowing that large piece of arctic shortwave energy to eject southeast from the main PV low over central Canada which is speeding up in the latest runs to the storm for Tuesday.  In fact, I would suffice to say, that the arctic trough is allowing the progress of the Tuesday system to slow down more each run as it catches it and amplifies the flow over the Eastern Seaboard.  This shortwave could eventually catch the system entirely and phase within the southern stream disturbance.

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13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The models appear to be allowing that large piece of arctic shortwave energy to eject southeast from the main PV low over central Canada which is speeding up in the latest runs to the storm for Tuesday.  In fact, I would suffice to say, that the arctic trough is allowing the progress of the Tuesday system to slow down more each run as it catches it and amplifies the flow over the Eastern Seaboard. This shortwave could eventually catch the system entirely and phase within the southern stream disturbance.

Seems like a near 0 chance.

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16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The models appear to be allowing that large piece of arctic shortwave energy to eject southeast from the main PV low over central Canada which is speeding up in the latest runs to the storm for Tuesday.  In fact, I would suffice to say, that the arctic trough is allowing the progress of the Tuesday system to slow down more each run as it catches it and amplifies the flow over the Eastern Seaboard.  This shortwave could eventually catch the system entirely and phase within the southern stream disturbance.

Put the pipe down

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

6Z Euro is rather suppressed. Actually has decent mid levels to the pike.

I'm surprised this keeps tickling south. At some point these usually start ticking back north a little but the NAO block seems to be doing some work...toggling more recent runs vs runs 24-30 hours ago, the heights in SE Canada are definitely lower on the more recent runs. 

The shortwave in the plains is also not as deep. A combo of both of these things. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm surprised this keeps tickling south. At some point these usually start ticking back north a little but the NAO block seems to be doing some work...toggling more recent runs vs runs 24-30 hours ago, the heights in SE Canada are definitely lower on the more recent runs. 

The shortwave in the plains is also not as deep. A combo of both of these things. 

Any snowmaps? 

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