WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Indices don't modulate weather. Weather does what it does. Indices are a statistical way of observing and measuring it. The idea that climate indicates influence weather is a common causal fallacy. This isn’t the appropriate thread for this..take to banter please. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Indices don't modulate weather. Weather does what it does. Indices are a statistical way of observing and measuring it. The idea that climate indicates influence weather is a common causal fallacy. The indecies don't modulate weather, but they are man's attempt to quantify the complex pressure patterns that do. Pretty simple- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Congrats BTV on the NAM. I feel like everyone is rooting against us. Should probably report some posters for talking about solutions I don’t like, just like when Dr.Dews gets reported for posting rain maps in SNE . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like everyone is rooting against us. Should probably report some posters for talking about solutions I don’t like, just like when Dr.Dews gets reported for posting rain maps in SNE . Just wait till they want to go skiing somewhere larger than a small regurgitation of the earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like everyone is rooting against us. Should probably report some posters for talking about solutions I don’t like, just like when Dr.Dews gets reported for posting rain maps in SNE . You've been quiet on here lately. You deserve some snow. I'm enjoying the thaws. It makes the winter feel less prolonged so that I can enjoy the heart of winter more. If we already had a 15" pack with 20/0 type days I'd be gouging my eyes out by Feb. Anyway, the GFS is a congrats PF too. That's a nice stripe of midlevel goodies cutting through VT and NH. Get that a little further south and we're talking 5-8" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like everyone is rooting against us. Should probably report some posters for talking about solutions I don’t like, just like when Dr.Dews gets reported for posting rain maps in SNE . You're cooked on this one too. Gonna end up congrats Ray to Hippie....Dr Dews trolls his way to 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: You've been quiet on here lately. You deserve some snow. I'm enjoying the thaws. It makes the winter feel less prolonged so that I can enjoy the heart of winter more. If we already had a 15" pack with 20/0 type days I'd be gouging my eyes out by Feb. Anyway, the GFS is a congrats PF too. That's a nice stripe of midlevel goodies cutting through VT and NH. Get that a little further south and we're talking 5-8" here. Ha, yeah been so f’in busy ramping up for the holidays at both work (mostly hiring and training staff so they don’t get run over by the freight train arriving in Stowe on 12/26) and home, that my AMWX time has certainly taken a hit the past 2 weeks. Hoping for a little refresher on Tuesday, we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You're cooked on this one too. Gonna end up congrats Ray to Hippie....Dr Dews trolls his way to 6". Yup I agree. You guys are getting your mojo back after last winter. Last year no matter what the models said everyone was assuming congrats BTV or Montreal, even if it showed a CT jackpot lol. Now it’s like folks believe again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like everyone is rooting against us. Should probably report some posters for talking about solutions I don’t like, just like when Dr.Dews gets reported for posting rain maps in SNE . Amazing that MRG is skiing off Sunnyside and Birdland after the rain and thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 37 minutes ago, alex said: Just wait till they want to go skiing somewhere larger than a small regurgitation of the earth Save me some Sam. I told ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yup I agree. You guys are getting your mojo back after last winter. Last year no matter what the models said everyone was assuming congrats BTV or Montreal, even if it showed a CT jackpot lol. Now it’s like folks believe again. I was mostly trolling there. Lol. This has a good midlevel look for NNE. Though there's prob a decent chance that a lot of people get 3"+ on this forum if the cold ticks continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was mostly trolling there. Lol. This has a good midlevel look for NNE. Though there's prob a decent chance that a lot of people get 3"+ on this forum if the cold ticks continue. Ha, yeah I have liked the mid-level look for some arcing bands well north and blossoming as upper air support moves in from the west...displaced from the stronger isentropic lift moving through SNE/CNE. RT 2 to Dendy is a climo favored spot in SWFE type deals and this looks like it may fit that bill. Just far enough north to stay snow and just far enough south to get the juicy lift. Of course I could certainly envision it getting squashed such that Tolland Massif stays all snow. That 18z NAM looks least likely, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 We tick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 18z Euro is noticeably south and colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 That looks like mainly snow down into N CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, Albert A Clipper said: MRG will ski off bare ground if there is snow someplace on the trail. I looked at the webcams and it looked pretty decent after a huge thaw. They made alot of snow around the base area over the last few weeks. I really expected them to loose alot more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: MRG will ski off bare ground if there is snow someplace on the trail. Moss Rocks and Grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: That looks like mainly snow down into N CT. We’re Ticking colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looks like a day or so without alot of snowcover and then a rebuild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I was mostly joking with PF and then the 18z euro comes in and basically gives NNE a goose egg. I think the models troll sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Ramp up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was mostly joking with PF and then the 18z euro comes in and basically gives NNE a goose egg. I think the models troll sometimes. Yup, The models did just that(troll) to SNE every single system last year it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Just did a map. These setups use to drive me nuts but they seem to be pretty straight forward...a few inches of snow, then some sleet/ice , then some rain. Hardest aspect is determining how much sleet vs. how much freezing rain. Soundings at BDL do have extending period for some freezing rain but I don't think we're looking at a significant icing event...enough though to make for ad travel. Dude, rain is confined to the immediate coast. I’m not going above freezing. Drop the ice map south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 This is starting to remind me of 12/13/07 lite. Modeling was messy and it ticked colder in the final 2 days per recollection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Dude, rain is confined to the immediate coast. I’m not going above freezing. Drop the ice map south. Yeah, the past 5 years of living here I have come to realize any N to NE wind in this type of system despite what the models are showing, I rarely touch freezing here. Even the storm at the beginning of the month was suppose to hit 35-37 and it touch 32.4 before dropping back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I was mostly joking with PF and then the 18z euro comes in and basically gives NNE a goose egg. I think the models troll sometimes. Some narrow zone would get a decent event out of that...with light mood snow accumulations across the rest of SNE/CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was mostly joking with PF and then the 18z euro comes in and basically gives NNE a goose egg. I think the models troll sometimes. Share maps please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 NNE is like...”She gone...” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Yeah, the past 5 years of living here I have come to realize any N to NE wind in this type of system despite what the models are showing, I rarely touch freezing here. Even the storm at the beginning of the month was suppose to hit 35-37 and it touch 32.4 before dropping back down. Yup. This has the look of the freezing line straddling the Merritt if not 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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