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12/17 Messy Mix


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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Indices don't modulate weather.  Weather does what it does.  Indices are a statistical way of observing and measuring it.  The idea that climate indicates influence weather is a common causal fallacy.  

The indecies don't modulate weather, but they are man's attempt to quantify the complex pressure patterns that do.

Pretty simple-

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like everyone is rooting against us.  

Should probably report some posters for talking about solutions I don’t like, just like when Dr.Dews gets reported for posting rain maps in SNE :lol:.

Just wait till they want to go skiing somewhere larger than a small regurgitation of the earth :lol:

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like everyone is rooting against us.  

Should probably report some posters for talking about solutions I don’t like, just like when Dr.Dews gets reported for posting rain maps in SNE :lol:.

You've been quiet on here lately. You deserve some snow.

I'm enjoying the thaws. It makes the winter feel less prolonged so that I can enjoy the heart of winter more. If we already had a 15" pack with 20/0 type days I'd be gouging my eyes out by Feb.

Anyway, the GFS is a congrats PF too. That's a nice stripe of midlevel goodies cutting through VT and NH. Get that a little further south and we're talking 5-8" here.

 

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like everyone is rooting against us.  

Should probably report some posters for talking about solutions I don’t like, just like when Dr.Dews gets reported for posting rain maps in SNE :lol:.

You're cooked on this one too. Gonna end up congrats Ray to Hippie....Dr Dews trolls his way to 6". 

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You've been quiet on here lately. You deserve some snow.

I'm enjoying the thaws. It makes the winter feel less prolonged so that I can enjoy the heart of winter more. If we already had a 15" pack with 20/0 type days I'd be gouging my eyes out by Feb.

Anyway, the GFS is a congrats PF too. That's a nice stripe of midlevel goodies cutting through VT and NH. Get that a little further south and we're talking 5-8" here.

 

Ha, yeah been so f’in busy ramping up for the holidays at both work (mostly hiring and training staff so they don’t get run over by the freight train arriving in Stowe on 12/26) and home, that my AMWX time has certainly taken a hit the past 2 weeks.

Hoping for a little refresher on Tuesday, we’ll see.   

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You're cooked on this one too. Gonna end up congrats Ray to Hippie....Dr Dews trolls his way to 6". 

Yup I agree.  You guys are getting your mojo back after last winter.  Last year no matter what the models said everyone was assuming congrats BTV or Montreal, even if it showed a CT jackpot lol.  Now it’s like folks believe again.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup I agree.  You guys are getting your mojo back after last winter.  Last year no matter what the models said everyone was assuming congrats BTV or Montreal, even if it showed a CT jackpot lol.  Now it’s like folks believe again.

I was mostly trolling there. Lol. This has a good midlevel look for NNE. Though there's prob a decent chance that a lot of people get 3"+ on this forum if the cold ticks continue. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was mostly trolling there. Lol. This has a good midlevel look for NNE. Though there's prob a decent chance that a lot of people get 3"+ on this forum if the cold ticks continue. 

Ha, yeah I have liked the mid-level look for some arcing bands well north and blossoming as upper air support moves in from the west...displaced from the stronger isentropic lift moving through SNE/CNE.  

RT 2 to Dendy is a climo favored spot in SWFE type deals and this looks like it may fit that bill.  Just far enough north to stay snow and just far enough south to get the juicy lift.  

Of course I could certainly envision it getting squashed such that Tolland Massif stays all snow.   That 18z NAM looks least likely, ha.

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Just did a map. These setups use to drive me nuts but they seem to be pretty straight forward...a few inches of snow, then some sleet/ice , then some rain. Hardest aspect is determining how much sleet vs. how much freezing rain. Soundings at BDL do have extending period for some freezing rain but I don't think we're looking at a significant icing event...enough though to make for ad travel. 

1991826661_snowicemap.png.19df312d22c0cafe28b294fc78021d0f.png

Dude, rain is confined to the immediate coast. I’m not going above freezing. Drop the ice map south. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dude, rain is confined to the immediate coast. I’m not going above freezing. Drop the ice map south. 

Yeah, the past 5 years of living here I have come to realize any N to NE wind in this type of system despite what the models are showing, I rarely touch freezing here. Even the storm at the beginning of the month was suppose to hit 35-37 and it touch 32.4 before dropping back down.

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Yeah, the past 5 years of living here I have come to realize any N to NE wind in this type of system despite what the models are showing, I rarely touch freezing here. Even the storm at the beginning of the month was suppose to hit 35-37 and it touch 32.4 before dropping back down.

Yup. This has the look of the freezing line straddling the Merritt if not 95. 

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