MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Chris, lots of peeps go to bed before 11 pm, and they went to bed with a 3-6 inch snow accumulation call for a lot interior SNE. Then at 11 pm, the forecast was changed and downgraded to 1-3 inches, and that’s gonna bust too. This was a horrible performance by modeling...plain and simple. And That’s my point...sure you can keep changing with every model run of the HRRR etc etc in a situation like this...but that doesn’t help the 99% of the general public who’s definitely not watching every model run every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Chris, lots of peeps go to bed before 11 pm, and they went to bed with a 3-6 inch snow accumulation call for a lot interior SNE. Then at 11 pm, the forecast was changed and downgraded to 1-3 inches, and that’s gonna bust too. This was a horrible performance by modeling...plain and simple. And That’s my point...sure you can keep changing with every model run of the HRRR etc etc in a situation like this...but that doesn’t help the 99% of the general public who’s definitely not watching every model run every hour. I don’t mean your knee-jerk to everything. I mean you take it all as a lump sum evaluate the trends, look at near term data like radar etc. and then if you need to change, you change. But yeah unfortunately most of it happened when people had sugar plums dancing in their heads. 18z started going to crap and it never looked back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t mean your knee-jerk to everything. I mean you take it all as a lump sum evaluate the trends, look at near term data like radar etc. and then if you need to change, you change. But yeah unfortunately most of it happened when people had sugar plums dancing in their heads. 18z started going to crap and it never looked back. I see and know what you mean. Ahh well, we All learn from this too. And Sorry, I called you Chris lol, I meant Scott. For some reason yours and his screen name/avatar, while different, for some reason if I respond quick I can get you two mixed up a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I see and know what you mean. Ahh well, we All learn from this too. And Sorry, I called you Chris lol, I meant Scott. For some reason yours and his screen name/avatar, while different, for some reason if I respond quick I can get you two mixed up a lot. And I had to work an overnight so was able to look at a lot. Boston will be lucky to get an inch. Maybe we can get a little light snow this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 We’ll see what happens today....still think 2-3” may be possible, then there’s the arctic shortwave tomorrow. Hopefully squalls for all. 6z NAM gone wild up here in the mountains next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We’ll see what happens today....still think 2-3” may be possible, then there’s the arctic shortwave tomorrow. Hopefully squalls for all. 6z NAM gone wild up here in the mountains next two days. After this debacle, I am really stoked to be headed up to Jay for the New Year. For the next two weeks it’s all about the picnic tables. Let’s stack it up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 You know it's bad when we start discussing windex in this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You know it's bad when we start discussing windex in this thread. Berkshire East looks nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Berkshire East looks nice Moderate snow here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Almost all sleet. Can’t even get a zr storm after the snow failure. Just a complete all around loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You know it's bad when we start discussing windex in this thread. Anything to get our minds of this POS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Still gotta watch this evening in eastern areas. Could be some prolonged steady light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Still gotta watch this evening in eastern areas. Could be some prolonged steady light snows. Lol unfortunately that doesn’t help us CT peeps at all. We’ll take our freezing drizzle and be done with this dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Even a storm that trends at the last minute to a congrats dendrite, is a fail. I want a ban on those words. Can i block any post that says congrats dendrite? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Even a storm that trends at the last minute to a congrats dendrite, is a fail. I want a ban on those words. Can i block any post that says congrats dendrite? Congrats Mahky Mahk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I'll actually second that. It was essentially dry 24 hours up here. I made my thoughts known on it yesterday, It struggled for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Even a storm that trends at the last minute to a congrats dendrite, is a fail. I want a ban on those words. Can i block any post that says congrats dendrite? We’ll be fine. It was never a big event anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol unfortunately that doesn’t help us CT peeps at all. We’ll take our freezing drizzle and be done with this dud. Heavy IP here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 It’s like a funeral in here, Winter must of died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: It’s like a funeral in here, Winter must of died. Days and days of snow...………. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Almost all sleet. Can’t even get a zr storm after the snow failure. Just a complete all around loss Staying power. Get enough of it and it’ll at least look white. Then get a little inch of fluff on top and no one will know the difference. Like lipstick on a pig. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Staying power. Get enough of it and it’ll at least look white. Then get a little inch of fluff on top and no one will know the difference. Like lipstick on a pig. I don’t know if I’ll manage 1”. Looks like it ends off to the SW. Not even 1/2” yet. Sleet would have been great had it actually snowed. Tonight is probably an hour of fluffy flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Heavy IP here. Ya same here now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Ground will be white again. White, then white and COLD. No complaints. Just going to have to wear layers. This hasn't been the worst December. Problem is that everyone is playing the same number on the lottery. If you live in SNE your chances of a white Christmas range from maybe 15% on the Cape and Islands to maybe 50% in the Worcester hills. Up in the hilltop towns of the Berkshires you get to maybe 75%. This is for the minimal 1 inch coverage. Now, if you pick all 31 days your chances of snow on the ground goes way up. Now, NNE is a whole different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 Growth got better here in Saugus.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I see and know what you mean. Ahh well, we All learn from this too. I for one believe people usually don’t “learn much” from busts thou it sounds lovely they often are Over confident identifying why they were “wrong” because they simply *Want* and are willing to believe they will be right next time . Same situation occurs i would be confident it will be wrong again . I see this all the time w busted forecasts . Sometimes the reason just isn’t as clear as they are identifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I for one believe people usually don’t “learn much from busts” they often are Over confident identifying why they were “wrong” because they simply *Want* and are willing to believe they will be right next time . Same situation occurs i would be confident it will be wrong again . I see this all the time w busted forecasts . Sometimes the reason just isn’t clear . Last event was clear....this was just poor guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: It’s like a funeral in here, Winter must of died. @WinterWolf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I get caught up in some of the hype and lose objectivity at times. Hoping for positive busts or upper ends of guidance. Snow maps and weenie goggles. Im not sure what the warning flags were for this until the latest models. I forecast 4-6” for this area and still might get the lower end but I doubt it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 Almost moderate now on route 1, Saugus...decent growth, surprisingly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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