Hoth Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Not enough snow for Tony Montana to powder his nose. Light freezing drizzle now. Pity. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I wouldn’t even trust em one bit on the extended either though...they can’t Nail down a system 6 hours away...9 days away, forget about it. They’re all over the place. I would actually argue that they are better at sniffing out a real threat in the long ranges when your realistic window is much larger than when you're trying to pin it down to hours. It's the near term when a 20 mile shift can really wreck a forecast that the higher resolution guidance is showing big differences. That's why when all else fails you need to work from the top down. A model is way less likely to whiff on a jet streak, than a vort max, than the 850 front, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I wouldn’t even trust em one bit on the extended either though...they can’t Nail down a system 6 hours away...9 days away, forget about it. They’re all over the place. Not sure why the models are really struggling this year. Its pathetic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Not sure why the models are really struggling this year. Its pathetic . Climate change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would actually argue that they are better at sniffing out a real threat in the long ranges when your realistic window is much larger than when you're trying to pin it down to hours. It's the near term when a 20 mile shift can really wreck a forecast that the higher resolution guidance is showing big differences. That's why when all else fails you need to work from the top down. A model is way less likely to whiff on a jet streak, than a vort max, than the 850 front, etc. Oh, so were gonna get that big storm then come next Monday...cuz all modeling sniffed it out at some point the last 4-5 days....Right..Right??? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh, so were gonna get that big storm then come next Monday...cuz all modeling sniffed it out at some point the last 4-5 days....Right..Right??? Lol. I'm not talking cherry picking one run, but multiple models showing a couple day window with an event. I never saw any agreement from modeling on what to do with that PV streamer drifting aimlessly across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It was a total fail on modeling for sure. What a poor job by all of them period. They’ve been pathetic this early winter so far..big time struggling on so many situations. They do great on the warm rainers though. I'm still hoping for a few inches. While there may be less qpf, it sounds from recent posts there will be less taint. Glass half-full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I'm not talking cherry picking one run, but multiple models showing a couple day window with an event. I never saw any agreement from modeling on what to do with that PV streamer drifting aimlessly across the country. I was being A lil sarcastic on that. But wasn’t cherry picking. There was multi model agreement on a big system on the east coast however, but they all had a lil different idea on how that conclusion was reached. But that’s par for a system out at 8 days...I think you get my point. This is a monster fail on modeling...so there is no sugar coating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 ML magic FTW further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I was being A lil sarcastic on that. But wasn’t cherry picking. There was multi model agreement on a big system on the east coast however, but they all had a lil different idea on how that conclusion was reached. But that’s par for a system out at 8 days...I think you get my point. This is a monster fail on modeling...so there is no sugar coating it. Needle threaders are definitely going to carry more risk at disappearing than the ones in a pattern that is supportive. I mean while we were weenie-ing out on the impending 3 day snow storm, the GFS was showing a potential stemwinder at hour 288. Turns out it was off by 24 hours, but 4 inches of rain later it did sniff out a big system. It was just wet not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Didn’t even cover my fooking grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Needle threaders are definitely going to carry more risk at disappearing than the ones in a pattern that is supportive. I mean while we were weenie-ing out on the impending 3 day snow storm, the GFS was showing a potential stemwinder at hour 288. Turns out it was off by 24 hours, but 4 inches of rain later it did sniff out a big system. It was just wet not white. Aaah...you always got a take on why it isn’t a model fail...but you should, it’s your job. This was a complete fail in SNE imo. Not gonna talk me out of it this time Chris lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Aaah...you always got a take on why it isn’t a model fail...but you should, it’s your job. This was a complete fail in SNE imo. Not gonna talk me out of it this time Chris lol. Oh no, this system was crap on guidance. The only success is that models were consistently showing rather poor snow growth. But moving the best forcing that far north in the last 24 hours was not a great showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Oh no, this system was crap on guidance. The only success is that models were consistently showing rather poor snow growth. But moving the best forcing that far north in the last 24 hours was not a great showing. you think nws will change amounts or holding tight?, sheared off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I know the euro apologists will be out, but it was absolute garbage with this system locally. I mean, really bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, 512high said: you nws will change amounts or holding tight, sheared off I think we claw and scratch our way to 3-4" in southern NH. We hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know the euro apologists will be out, but it was absolute garbage with this system locally. I mean, really bad. I'll actually second that. It was essentially dry 24 hours up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 A lot of guidance was bad. At least down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I'll actually second that. It was essentially dry 24 hours up here. Respect the press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: A lot of guidance was bad. At least down here. All of it was., that’s why every forecast from even 11:00 pm last night(pro or hobbyist)is gonna bust..in the snow accumulation department for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 58 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I don't know about this FV3 version of the KFS... KV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: All of it was., that’s why every forecast from even 11:00 pm last night(pro or hobbyist)is gonna bust..in the snow accumulation department for SNE. But that’s why you adjust with trends. It was last minute, but better than nothing to change forecast. Models that assimilate with real time obs like hrrr do help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A lot of guidance was bad. At least down here. It was weird seeing the euro so far south on its own for so long. In the back of my mind I kept thinking it would cave. But none of the other models really showed much consistency other than I guess the GFS. But even then it tickled south and cooler some in the last 36hrs. It was difficult to get a feel for which side would win. I guess Wizzy's tornado gave the downstream ridging one more pump poleward. But it's not like anyone down there is missing a blockbuster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It was weird seeing the euro so far south on its own for so long. In the back of my mind I kept thinking it would cave. But none of the other models really showed much consistency other than I guess the GFS. But even then it tickled south and cooler some in the last 36hrs. It was difficult to get a feel for which side would win. I guess Wizzy's tornado gave the downstream ridging one more pump poleward. But it's not like anyone down there is missing a blockbuster. I just feel bad for Kevin's kids watching him drag the tree out to the curb because Christmas is cancelled. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But that’s why you adjust with trends. It was last minute, but better than nothing to change forecast. Models that assimilate with real time obs like hrrr do help. Chris, lots of peeps go to bed before 11 pm, and they went to bed with a 3-6 inch snow accumulation call for a lot interior SNE. Then at 11 pm, the forecast was changed and downgraded to 1-3 inches, and that’s gonna bust too. This was a horrible performance by modeling...plain and simple. And That’s my point...sure you can keep changing with every model run of the HRRR etc etc in a situation like this...but that doesn’t help the 99% of the general public who’s definitely not watching every model run every hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 6:04 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congrats on 2-3”. Maybe .25" if I am lucky. On 12/16/2019 at 6:18 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Why do you always think their maps are correct? Lol. Those will continue coming up today. They always go conservative The forecast I heard for this was not conservative enough. The 1" was way too generous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Well it was a brutal melt by the models. Like, unanimous failure here so the ‘meh’ approach won this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Schools are closed for not even a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: It was weird seeing the euro so far south on its own for so long. In the back of my mind I kept thinking it would cave. But none of the other models really showed much consistency other than I guess the GFS. But even then it tickled south and cooler some in the last 36hrs. It was difficult to get a feel for which side would win. I guess Wizzy's tornado gave the downstream ridging one more pump poleward. But it's not like anyone down there is missing a blockbuster. Seems like even the northern guidance failed too because they were showing a way more organized system than this is. I mean, this thing looks horrendous. Orginally when this was bumping north the WCB started looking much better. Now guidance is having a hard time producing a quarter inch total in 6 hours here. Maybe this tries to get going this morning but it still looks pretty shredded and disorganized on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Still think we limp our way to plowable here. It isn’t pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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