Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3-5 for you including the weenie change back to snow tomorrow. 4-7 N of pike. That includes sleet too. Yea that is what I think. Someone bangs an 8 ball, either Pete Hunchie Hippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah right after I post that the 00z HRRR goes nuts with a bunch of 6-8" amounts in the SWFE favored locals of RT 2 to SVT/SNH. Wheres Greg? He's probably is not going to like his short term meso, I don't trust it myself to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I’m still thinking 4-6” here but 8 wouldn’t shock me. Not meh-ing. Just what I see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah right after I post that the 00z HRRR goes nuts with a bunch of 6-8" amounts in the SWFE favored locals of RT 2 to SVT/SNH. It's like it read my mind up there. RAP is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I saw you typing then stop . Lots of consternation in that lol. Thanks man Little worried about the thump being less intense on some of these recent runs but there's been a lot of flip flopping on guidance so it's not worth pulling hair out over. I'm just going by experience with these...I think you'll prob still make 3" of sleet/snow even on the uglier scenarios so I feel ok going 3-5". There's a chance you rip 1-2" per hour for a brief time which could get you close to that 5 mark....and if not and you flip to sleet pretty quick...you'll prob pound out 1-2" of sleet anyway with maybe a little weenie currier and Ives to end it that may tack on a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Would be interesting and a monkey wrench if much of southern areas started right off with a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Little worried about the thump being less intense on some of these recent runs but there's been a lot of flip flopping on guidance so it's not worth pulling hair out over. I'm just going by experience with these...I think you'll prob still make 3" of sleet/snow even on the uglier scenarios so I feel ok going 3-5". There's a chance you rip 1-2" per hour for a brief time which could get you close to that 5 mark....and if not and you flip to sleet pretty quick...you'll prob pound out 1-2" of sleet anyway with maybe a little weenie currier and Ives to end it that may tack on a little bit. The next HRRx will be back to 2-4 and the following 3-5 etc. We know how these work. The low dews in NJ are telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 NAM is really a lot slower now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Big time ip/zr run for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Damn NAM thumps but 6 hours later. Cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 SWFE climo rearing its ugly head. The warm tongue probably knocks on my door. Does look more and more like the usual 4-8’’ in the Route 2/SNH area. I’ll probably end up doing fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Sleet doesn’t get past the pike on the NAM at least through 21 hours. What a crushing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Pickles favorite Burlington-WRF model has a lot of Freezing Rain for CT. Even several hours into Hartford. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm on call again and here's what I went with. Really think snow is not the story here in CT, as we go from thump to sleet/ZR. Had to go into more detail in the text forecast as I think the 5" spots are along the border and higher icing amounts are near the southern end of the 2-5" zone. Still thinking this is a moderate (shoreline) to high (inland) impact event overall due to timing, early morning snow rates, and icing potential. Could have went with three zones, but decided against that. No time or personal map making experience to go with a separate icing map. Excellent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm on call again and here's what I went with. Really think snow is not the story here in CT, as we go from thump to sleet/ZR. Had to go into more detail in the text forecast as I think the 5" spots are along the border and higher icing amounts are near the southern end of the 2-5" zone. Still thinking this is a moderate (shoreline) to high (inland) impact event overall due to timing, early morning snow rates, and icing potential. Could have went with three zones, but decided against that. No time or personal map making experience to go with a separate icing map. go big or go home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah right after I post that the 00z HRRR goes nuts with a bunch of 6-8" amounts in the SWFE favored locals of RT 2 to SVT/SNH. Yikes. Should have stayed in GC. I'm hoping my 10 miles north of the pike falls into Will's north-of-the-pike range. I'm prepped for a lot of pinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Sleet doesn’t get past the pike on the NAM at least through 21 hours. What a crushing! I see pinging around 18z at BOS. 850s stay cold but there's a Warm layer above that. It did cool from the previous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I see pinging around 18z at BOS. 850s stay cold but there's a Warm layer above that. It did cool from the previous though. Even FIT pings on that, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Sleet doesn’t get past the pike on the NAM at least through 21 hours. What a crushing! It's interesting the P-type progs have it as sleet/rain at 21 hours. Sleet by 18 hours. No idea what the algorithms are but they have very little snow. Looks warmest around 750-800mb? The low level temps on this are a joke, above freezing at the SFC but like -3C at 925mb.... it's sleet and 32F or less...not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Even FIT pings on that, no? S NH eventually pings. The key is how much of the big qpf falls by that point of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 there might be a smidge more beyond this. Pretty juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: S NH eventually pings. The key is how much of the big qpf falls by that point of course. Yeah I didn't check soundings that far N, at least the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Get your measurements before the sleet compresses it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Even FIT pings on that, no? Pretty typical for SWFEs. Sleet is always closer than it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Looks like I’ll go to rain pretty quickly. Maybe a few quick inches then 37F rain and melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 12k nam snow depth change only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Here you go Jerry. Fresh off the presses 00z run. Really hitting the rt 2 to pickles corridor good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Damn ...just ran a skew......sleet in by 17z at bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Nobody should ever ignore potential speed of the mid-level warming in these events. The big question for some of the CT peeps is it a pack building sleet fest or full on 6+ hour ice storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Dendy’s chickens stealing our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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