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12/17 Messy Mix


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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Are the models starting to feel the effects of the NAO dipping ? This can be the reason why the models are trending colder.

Indices don't cause weather or modeling changes.  Forecasted indices themselves are models.  We might be seeing a trend.  But then synoptic guidance will shift in tandem with climate indices.

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Indices don't cause weather or modeling changes.  Forecasted indices themselves are models.  We might be seeing a trend.  But then synoptic guidance will shift in tandem with climate indices.

Indicies are a means of measuring hemispheric height and pressure patterns, which modulate our sensible weather. Any decent guidance will reflect this.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

If we had a better front end, would be warning. It’s been slowly getting better, but the dynamics aren’t there. Best bet is to root for south ticks.

The front end thump on this thing is pretty weak sauce. That's what you get with a sheared shortwave out in Detroit-STL corridor when the best WAA precip hits. 

I agree the best thing to root for at this point is just another tick or two colder so we stay mostly snow in the weak commahead this thing has. The overall orientation of the vortmax doesn't seem to be changing that much so I think we're probably gonna keep the really sheared look. 

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The front end thump on this thing is pretty weak sauce. That's what you get with a sheared shortwave out in Detroit-STL corridor when the best WAA precip hits. 

I agree the best thing to root for at this point is just another tick or two colder so we stay mostly snow in the weak commahead this thing has. The overall orientation of the vortmax doesn't seem to be changing that much so I think we're probably gonna keep the really sheared look. 

Yea...this is what I was getting at speaking with Kev. Surface can trend as cold as it wants, but that won't compensate for the sheared dynamics.

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2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:
from pwm?  I would think so.....the inbound is in mon.

Yes from pwm. I thought sn starts just after midnight Mon night

PWM is the worst for that early morning departure  (or at least it was when I lived up there 2005-2008).  The line tor security would loop around the entire terminal--lots of folks missing their flights.

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