Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Surface, totally plausible, but mid levels are what they are. I meant I think the qpf also trends south . Meaning less up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I meant I think the qpf also trends south . Meaning less up north Whatever it takes to get snow in your backyard, that’s what you go with. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Swfes come in so many permutations. It’s hard to forecast because on some level most are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 In fact, I think the Arctic shortwave is under done. I expect a 970 bomb over the benchmark Tuesday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: In fact, I think the Arctic shortwave is under done. I expect a 970 bomb over the benchmark Tuesday morning. Bait and hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Are the models starting to feel the effects of the NAO dipping ? This can be the reason why the models are trending colder. Indices don't cause weather or modeling changes. Forecasted indices themselves are models. We might be seeing a trend. But then synoptic guidance will shift in tandem with climate indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whatever it takes to get snow in your backyard, that’s what you go with. Umm.. less qpf would mean less snow right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Indices don't cause weather or modeling changes. Forecasted indices themselves are models. We might be seeing a trend. But then synoptic guidance will shift in tandem with climate indices. Indicies are a means of measuring hemispheric height and pressure patterns, which modulate our sensible weather. Any decent guidance will reflect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 We press. Euro a smidge colder again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Chilly, icy, with good snows up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 We’re not far from a widespread warning event, one more small tick is all that is needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I like the look up here. Some mid level fingers of fronto possible with higher ratios. Great mid level magic on that Euro run at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Lingers well into Tuesday night too. Well into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro is great for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 That's close to all snow north of the pike in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 If we had a better front end, would be warning. It’s been slowly getting better, but the dynamics aren’t there. Best bet is to root for south ticks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro on its own. Tossed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: If we had a better front end, would be warning. It’s been slowly getting better, but the dynamics aren’t there. Best bet is to root for south ticks. The front end thump on this thing is pretty weak sauce. That's what you get with a sheared shortwave out in Detroit-STL corridor when the best WAA precip hits. I agree the best thing to root for at this point is just another tick or two colder so we stay mostly snow in the weak commahead this thing has. The overall orientation of the vortmax doesn't seem to be changing that much so I think we're probably gonna keep the really sheared look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I am pretty confident in measurable snow in NW MA. 4-6” here is my first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The front end thump on this thing is pretty weak sauce. That's what you get with a sheared shortwave out in Detroit-STL corridor when the best WAA precip hits. I agree the best thing to root for at this point is just another tick or two colder so we stay mostly snow in the weak commahead this thing has. The overall orientation of the vortmax doesn't seem to be changing that much so I think we're probably gonna keep the really sheared look. Yea...this is what I was getting at speaking with Kev. Surface can trend as cold as it wants, but that won't compensate for the sheared dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 For mon night into tue snow 4- 8 inches for inland ct and sne then ice storm for inland sne area. some other weather people agree with me on the amount . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, blizzard24 said: For mon night into tue snow 4- 8 inches for inland ct and sne then ice storm for inland sne area. Where are you getting all of the QPF? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: Where are you getting all of the QPF? Out of Dr Dews faucet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I've got a flight out Tues at 530am to BWI then back that night. Wonder if it'll go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I've got a flight out Tues at 530am to BWI then back that night. Wonder if it'll go from pwm? I would think so.....the inbound is in mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 from pwm? I would think so.....the inbound is in mon.Yes from pwm. I thought sn starts just after midnight Mon night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: from pwm? I would think so.....the inbound is in mon. Yes from pwm. I thought sn starts just after midnight Mon night PWM is the worst for that early morning departure (or at least it was when I lived up there 2005-2008). The line tor security would loop around the entire terminal--lots of folks missing their flights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: from pwm? I would think so.....the inbound is in mon. Yes from pwm. I thought sn starts just after midnight Mon night Not even snowing here at 12z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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