12/17 Messy Mix

[The 4 Seasons]

@weathafella

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

In 3 runs the Euro went from partly sunny up here to about 0.25” QPF with this system.  Not overly impressive showing by that model so far.

The GFS seems to be the most consistent in the overall synoptic evolution, thermal profiles aside for SNE.  

Hey post the Kuchera for 42 hrs, and the 75 you posted. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big time front end snow for nct on thy nammy.

Just a huge fanny pounder 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

Those freezing rain totals in SCT though..............

I see more ip then zr but the maps disagree with me. We’ll see.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought we all did a good job saying the euro was probably too far south and we expected it to come north. I know multiple people have said that except for one person in Tolland Connecticut.

You gave up trying to predict model trends yesterday when everything went south feeling the press. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

@weathafella

Quite the southern expansion there

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You gave up trying to predict model trends yesterday when everything went south feeling the press. 

We said it would come north to get areas north of the pike and it did. The guidance was bouncing around and I mentioned this in passing because it was amusing to see it. Lots of movement. 

[moneypitmike]

Oh, Nammy.

 

 

 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I see more ip then zr but the maps disagree with me. We’ll see.

Just going by what it shows there, If that is sleet, Then its increased on that run.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Quite the southern expansion there

It's prob real....Euro has 3"+ down the south coast now in CT as well as most other guidance sans GFS.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Well that was just part of what said, I did say it was over amped and too far N, i just threw the thermals in there and prefaced it with the obvious, which clearly was a mistake. It's all good

Thats really the main point here

 

No prob, This should be a good one for you down there.

[The 4 Seasons]

NAM & 3K NAM GW for S CT with now over 1.00" of ZR. Obviously those numbers are too high for this type of event. Still think up to a half inch is possible though. ill be interested to check out the soundings in bufkit when the 18zs come out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We said it would come north to get areas north of the pike and it did. The guidance was bouncing around and I mentioned this in passing because it was amusing to see it. Lots of movement. 

Was there anyone that thought it wouldn’t get n of 90? I had it into NH

[Bostonseminole]

has box updated their maps lately? I don't see an update since 3:30 am

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was there anyone that thought it wouldn’t get n of 90? I had it into NH

I don't think anyone was worried about ZR in northern Mass.  Just a matter of how far north and for how long the pinging was up here.  The jury's still out on how much contamination will take place along and north of the pike.

And that's all I care about. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

has box updated their maps lately? I don't see an update since 3:30 am

New advisories out for OKX, upped snowfall for 2-4" staying conservative with the ice with 0.1-0.2. nothing new from BOX or ALY yet. maps are still old

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was there anyone that thought it wouldn’t get n of 90? I had it into NH

You were stealing Ray and dendy's snow.

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

@weathafella

Thank you!  4-6 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I literally posted the Euro's worst run I think....that 54 hour map from yesterday. It was struggling to get even midlevel goodies north of Ray.

Worst than this impact implication? ...This was posted by someone, and it "precipitated" ( puns are free at this store ...) the consideration that he GFS was more consistently aggressive at the time.  It may be a matter of opinion, but the Euro got more aggressive than the GFS had to step down. The percentage of correction on this particular interval doesn't appear in the Euro's favor.  I dunno -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

New advisories out for OKX, upped snowfall for 2-4" staying conservative with the ice with 0.1-0.2. nothing new from BOX or ALY yet. maps are still old

I’ll refrain from bashing OKX any further. Like Will said, general public will be surprised tomorrow morning. 

[moneypitmike]

Here's the 3k--a bit toned down from the crazy 12k.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll refrain from bashing OKX any further. Like Will said, general public will be surprised tomorrow morning. 

I agree with CT. WIll be good thump there for sure. Sometimes you have that with a secondary area like north of the pike with the mid level forcing.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Worst than this impact implication? ...This was posted by someone, and it "precipitated" ( puns are free at this store ...) the consideration that he GFS was more consistently aggressive at the time.  It may be a matter of opinion, but the Euro got more aggressive than the GFS had to step down. The percentage of correct on this particular interval doesn't appear in the Euro's favor.  I dunno -

Last i have to say on this as not to clog this up anymore then we may have already done, Valid, And kind of where i been on this, GFS has remained in the Northern camp without having made wild swings in a different direction where the Euro has had to make quite a few bump adjustments north to be more inline with the other models.

[moneypitmike]

And your 10:1 clown.

Factoring ncp, Region-wide advisory .

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

NAM & 3K NAM GW for S CT with now over 1.00" of ZR. Obviously those numbers are too high for this type of event. Still think up to a half inch is possible though. ill be interested to check out the soundings in bufkit when the 18zs come out. 

Moonlight reflecting off ice encased dead Christmas lights to create a new and festive way to celebrate the holiday season?

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

And your 10:1 clown.

Factoring ncp, Region-wide advisory .

That map is utterly useless. Unless you want to confuse the public and post them all over social media, it's good for that.

[dryslot]

Unless someone has done one already, One of you in SNE should go start an OBS thread for this one.

[Typhoon Tip]

FOUS grid has big numbers at LGA and Logan ...too.

Over an inch at LGA in a zr bomb ...but nearly an inch at Logan with one interval of a tall sleet column. 

 

[moneypitmike]

BOX is doubling down on the advisory.

3:52

MAZ002>006-008>012-026-170500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0028.191217T0600Z-191218T0000Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Chesterfield, Blandford,
Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
352 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Western and northern Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[J Paul Gordon]

Ground will be white again. 4 inches here I expect. NWS seems to be holding firm. White, then white and COLD. No complaints. Just going to have to wear layers. This hasn't been the worst December.