ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: I said this earlier, The GFS had led the way, Most discounted it, The Euro was a southern outlier for several runs. GFS was way overamped for several runs. I think a lot of this is influenced by perspective of those on the edge of the precip. If there was a 30/70 or 40/60 compromise in favor of the Euro, it will look like the GFS "wins" for those who were out of the main precip....when in fact it was so amped it was sending sleet pellets knocking on the chicken coop's front door and giving literally no snow south of the pike. I haven't actually gone back and looked at, say, the 6 model runs from 48-72 hours out to see exactly which one "won" the compromise....but usually when I do those things, I see the GFS losing the battle. Maybe it's a stability thing, not sure. I definitely don't think this has been the Euro's best storm....it really did well in Dec 1-3. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Heh...I don't know about that Will. My "perspective" went from no impact or minimal by the Euro, to something much more... GFS may have had a bias or two, but the percentage correction indicts the Euro on this one. sorry - will agree to disagree with anyone on this. The Euro was worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS was way overamped for several runs. I think a lot of this is influenced by perspective of those on the edge of the precip. If there was a 30/70 or 40/60 compromise in favor of the Euro, it will look like the GFS "wins" for those who were out of the main precip....when in fact it was so amped it was sending sleet pellets knocking on the chicken coop's front door and giving literally no snow south of the pike. I haven't actually gone back and looked at, say, the 6 model runs from 48-72 hours out to see exactly which one "won" the compromise....but usually when I do those things, I see the GFS losing the battle. Maybe it's a stability thing, not sure. I definitely don't think this has been the Euro's best storm....it really did well in Dec 1-3. The only way anyone could possibly think the FV3 got anything right with this would be if they woke up this morning and just immediately started drinking. That is absolutely lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: a few lucid members mentioned this a other times over the last five days... more than a half the members, didn't seem to acknowledge typical with popularity schemes and crowd mechanics - I think the GFS thermals don’t help it’s case but synoptically it’s been very consistent with region-wide precip, none of this deep suppression stuff. There were runs of the EURO/GGEM/ICON in the last 24-30 hours that seemed to struggle to get deeper moisture and lift into RT 2 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS was way overamped for several runs. I think a lot of this is influenced by perspective of those on the edge of the precip. If there was a 30/70 or 40/60 compromise in favor of the Euro, it will look like the GFS "wins" for those who were out of the main precip....when in fact it was so amped it was sending sleet pellets knocking on the chicken coop's front door and giving literally no snow south of the pike. I haven't actually gone back and looked at, say, the 6 model runs from 48-72 hours out to see exactly which one "won" the compromise....but usually when I do those things, I see the GFS losing the battle. Maybe it's a stability thing, not sure. I definitely don't think this has been the Euro's best storm....it really did well in Dec 1-3. Not by what its done over the last 24hrs or so i would agree, But the GFS had remained on the northern side of the goal post where it seems all the others have moved towards it, And certainly not going by its thermals a most know where that lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: I think the GFS thermals don’t help it’s case but synoptically it’s been very consistent with region-wide precip, none of this deep suppression stuff. There were runs of the EURO/GGEM/ICON in the last 24-30 hours that seemed to struggle to get deeper moisture and lift into RT 2 area. Mid level magic has been on the Euro from the get go. It wasn’t showing up as much on clown maps but it’s always been there on the rh and lift charts. The FV3 scores dead last in this as Will states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 HRRR with quite a weenie stripe through centrtal CT 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mid level magic has been on the Euro from the get go. It wasn’t showing up as much on clown maps but it’s always been there on the rh and lift charts. The FV3 scores dead last in this as Will states What? Spin city. The EURO last night at 18z had like a non-event in the RT 2 corridor. It had like Jack shit for moisture and lift north of the Pike. It was pretty terrible. Don’t make me post the progs. The Ensembles were much further north with lift and moisture throughout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: What? Spin city. The EURO last night at 18z had like a non-event in the RT 2 corridor. It had like Jack shit for moisture and lift north of the Pike. It was pretty terrible. Don’t make me post the progs. He's the one that's been drinking, What a weenie, Its ok to say that some fell off the horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I didn't have time to go back and do every run....but here's Saturday 12z and then Sunday 12z.....Euro yesterday was pretty putrid...even when taking into account the QPF is misleading...Kevin is right that some of the runs showed lift further north, but it didn't get anywhere near powderfreak or even central VT/NH on that euro run. It definitely lost yesterday in a shorter time range. GFS lost Saturday....that's way too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: HRRR with quite a weenie stripe through centrtal CT Weenie stripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Hrrr still to warm at the surface. 18z nam looks icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What? Spin city. The EURO last night at 18z had like a non-event in the RT 2 corridor. It had like Jack shit for moisture and lift north of the Pike. It was pretty terrible. Don’t make me post the progs. The Ensembles were much further north with lift and moisture throughout. Yes on EPS. That’s what we use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Well the storm hasn't happened yet so i don't think anyone should be counting chickens just yet. With that said, the GFS is not likely to win anything, by a long shot. As will said it was way over amped and thermals were awful as usual. Well have to take a look after its all said and done but what i've seen recently is that the GFS is coming south and cooling off and the EC coming north, just a consensus being reached atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: He's the one that's been drinking, What a weenie, Its ok to say that some fell off the horse. This was just 3 runs ago. Euro was almost a non-event north of the Pike. GFS was significantly more robust and again, we always toss GFS thermals but in terms of lift and moisture it destroyed the EURO inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Well the storm hasn't happened yet so i don't think anyone should be counting chickens just yet. With that said, the GFS is not likely to win anything, by a long shot. As will said it was way over amped and thermals were awful as usual. Well have to take a look after its all said and done but what i've seen recently is that the GFS is coming south and cooling off and the EC coming north, just a consensus being reached atm. The argument was mainly synoptic evolution....not the thermals. The GFS thermals are absolute garbage as usual in these setups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Well the storm hasn't happened yet so i don't think anyone should be counting chickens just yet. With that said, the GFS is not likely to win anything, by a long shot. As will said it was way over amped and thermals were awful as usual. Well have to take a look after its all said and done but what i've seen recently is that the GFS is coming south and cooling off and the EC coming north, just a consensus being reached atm. Thanks, But we already know the thermals are junk, That wasn't where this was going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This was just 3 runs ago. Euro was almost a non-event north of the Pike. GFS was significantly more robust and again, we always toss GFS thermals but in terms of lift and moisture it destroyed the EURO inside of 48 hours. RH @H7 of 30% was no mid level magic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The argument was mainly synoptic evolution....not the thermals. The GFS thermals are absolute garbage as usual in these setups. Yeah, the thermals are always garbage, like it posted last night northerly winds to the Sound and it tried to warm it to 40F in CT. But inside of 48 hours the overall synoptic revolution of heaviest snow in RT 2 to SVT/SNH was definitely congrats GFS. I do agree that 3-4 days ago the GFS was too amped for sure. Hard to really quantify it. The Euro just had some hiccup suppressed runs...but then again so did GGEM and ICON etc...it was NCEP vs the world there for a bit with getting measurable snow up to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Thanks, But we already no the thermals are junk, That wasn't where this was going. To be fair, the thermals are a really important part of the forecast....and the GFS looked pretty bad even in the midlevels in this one. If someone followed the GFS forecast verbatim and the Euro forecast verbatim in SNE, they would get burned way worse using the GFS because it showed almost zero snow south of the pike. This is really more about "northern extent of the precip shield"....which is only part of the model's verfication on a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Models won before 1 flake fell? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The argument was mainly synoptic evolution....not the thermals. The GFS thermals are absolute garbage as usual in these setups. Agree with this much ... In fact, hard pressed [ most likely ... ] finding scenario where the GFS' lowest 200 mb of troposphere are handled very well because it's just apparent ...they've got a problem with the thermodynamics in the planetary boundary layer when it comes to that model. Re the other...you have a run there that makes the appeal of the Euro better - and is, in situ... But, three days ago, the GFS went through 7 or so cycles that were stolid consistent, and more akin to present consensus; when the Euro was paltry for total impact with consistency troubles during that same span. I have a very clear recollection of these, and there is a post I made back then in direct homage to that, which went unsung or really acknowledged..Now, on the eve of this thing, the Euro gets credit - k' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Models won before 1 flake fell? Lol Fair point. It still may not snow much in the RT 2 corridor. We don’t know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I thought we all did a good job saying the euro was probably too far south and we expected it to come north. I know multiple people have said that except for one person in Tolland Connecticut. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Agree with this much ... In fact, hard pressed [ most likely ... ] finding scenario where the GFS' lost 200 mb of troposphere are handled very well because it's just apparent ...they've got a problem with the thermodynamics in the planetary boundary layer. Re the other...you have a run there that makes the appeal of the Euro better - and is, in situ... But, three days ago, the GFS went through 7 or so cycles that were stolid consistent when the Euro was paltry for total impact with consistency troubles. I have a very clear recollection of these, and there is a post I made back then in direct homage to that, which went unsung or really acknowledged..Now, on the eve of this thing, the Euro gets credit - k' I literally posted the Euro's worst run I think....that 54 hour map from yesterday. It was struggling to get even midlevel goodies north of Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Big time front end snow for nct on thy nammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big time front end snow for nct on thy nammy. Short term guidance caught onto this first it seems early today....and now the more "normal" models are starting to show it. Could be some surprised peeps in CT tomorrow AM if they don't recheck the forecast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Thanks, But we already no the thermals are junk, That wasn't where this was going. Well that was just part of what said, I did say it was over amped and too far N, i just threw the thermals in there and prefaced it with the obvious, which clearly was a mistake. It's all good 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Models won before 1 flake fell? Lol Thats really the main point here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Lots o guidance picking up on a nice front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big time front end snow for nct on thy nammy. Those freezing rain totals in SCT though.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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