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12/17 Messy Mix


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Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

FOUS shows the surface winds starting at 60 degrees, and backing to 40 through the event.  I don't think the Sound is a big deal here.

It's always tough...even when you think the sound will be of zero influence it still seems to be a factor lol. 

What I think happens is there is still enough of a gradient between land/ocean that you still generate at least a localized and very confined area of winds with a southerly/easterly component...it's just so localized and small models won't pick it up. 

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24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Tell me about it.  With each melt, I thought perhaps the city could come and get my leaves.  Alas, we end up with 2-day windows of opportunity and then covered again.  Keep 'em buried til spring I say.

As an aside--I just posted a neat/scary/close-call video of yesterday's wind in the obs thread.

Yeah... I read about that yesterday on social media but had not seen the video.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Thanks Will!  Coming in line with other guidance now.

Yeah....RPM is also getting into the range where its actually useful.

RPM along with the other shorter term guidance is starting to pick up on a pretty good thump further south too....for S CT. Prob gonna see advisory snows for most of SNE with a stripe of low end warning somewhere.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can we do a severe wx thread in this subforum that's dedicated to severe wx outside of New England? Would be good practice for when our season heats up 

you could post in a thread that is located in a sub-forum for the area in which you are interested. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah....RPM is also getting into the range where its actually useful.

RPM along with the other shorter term guidance is starting to pick up on a pretty good thump further south too....for S CT. Prob gonna see advisory snows for most of SNE with a stripe of low end warning somewhere.

the pike still favored

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Looks like the warm tongue is centered around the 850mb level.   GFS looks way out of sync compared to the other 12z models at this level.  I'm leaning towards the Meso models in this type of setup, hedging towards a wintrier outcome for most, save for the Cape/Islands and South Coasts. I don;t think the plain rain will penetrate much beyond 20-25 mi N from the S Coast.

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