The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 @OceanStWx can correct me but i think they did away with the Freezing Rain & Ice Storm Warning products and lumped themp into WWA and WSW products. But this is the criteria nontheless. I think we are a candidate for this in the four southern counties of CT. Highly doubt they will be up this evening though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Due to the impacts of the ice/snow, Winter Storm Warnings seem realistic there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Those are some high probs on the EPS, though we are really close 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Make your ice storm preparations now, SCT. Will this affect RI too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I'd be surprised if anyone in CT saw a half inch of ice. There's definitely going to be some solid icing but you're prob not getting as much as the icing algorithms think. There's a pretty thick layer of below freezing air for a while....which tells me there's going to be some sleet in there that probably hangs on longer than ptype algorithms allow for...and then of course you have to lop off additional tenths because the accretion efficiency isn't going to have a 1 to 1 ratio (for every tenth of QPF that falls as ZR, prob like 0.06-0.07 will accrete, and that ratio falls during very heavy precip).....this is a heavy burst of precip that is prob done in 6-8 hours. Still, even a quarter to a third inch of ice is no slouch and could cause some issues. Can't totally rule it out though....a SWFE on 1/8/05 gave a narrow band in CT a half inch of ice. But everything has to go perfect when you're talking a duration that short. Most siggy icing events are much longer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 You need lighter rates over a longer period for siggy accretion of ice or it just runs off, Have had plenty of experience with this, But .25" or slightly above will cause issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Based on everything pending 12z Euro you’d go 3-6 South of 90 with some sleet mix for a few hours and 4-8” lolli 10” North of 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Based on everything pending 12z Euro you’d go 3-6 South of 90 with some sleet mix for a few hours and 4-8” lolli 10” North of 90 10"? where are those lollis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Yet another congrats dendrite fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: You need lighter rates over a longer period for siggy accretion of ice or it just runs off, Have had plenty of experience with this, But .25" or slightly above will cause issues. As I said earlier, if you are encasing snow covered branches with ice it could lead to problems when the wind kicks in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: You need lighter rates over a longer period for siggy accretion of ice or it just runs off, Have had plenty of experience with this. Or you can do it with heavy rates....but it needs to be a deluge for hours....this is what happened in ORH county in the 2008 icestorm....we had like 2.5 inches of QPF that produced an inch and a quarter to an inch and a half of ice. But it took like 18 hours of pretty heavy rates to get there. Granted, we prob got to half an inch of ice the prior evening after 10 hours or so, but we were wasting a ton of QPF with that runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 what site has the best fronto charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Dad doing OK but I'm still hanging out with him at new hospital : MGH. The room has some nice benefits. This will be an incredible view for the snowstorm tomorrow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd be surprised if anyone in CT saw a half inch of ice. There's definitely going to be some solid icing but you're prob not getting as much as the icing algorithms think. There's a pretty thick layer of below freezing air for a while....which tells me there's going to be some sleet in there that probably hangs on longer than ptype algorithms allow for...and then of course you have to lop off additional tenths because the accretion efficiency isn't going to have a 1 to 1 ratio (for every tenth of QPF that falls as ZR, prob like 0.06-0.07 will accrete, and that ratio falls during very heavy precip).....this is a heavy burst of precip that is prob done in 6-8 hours. Still, even a quarter to a third inch of ice is no slouch and could cause some issues. Can't totally rule it out though....a SWFE on 1/8/05 gave a narrow band in CT a half inch of ice. But everything has to go perfect when you're talking a duration that short. Most siggy icing events are much longer. BUFKIT is showing 12 full hours of ZR for HVN, ranging from .017 to .169/hr usually ranging around .060 per hour for a total of .805. Say we lose 30-40% of that due to run off. That's still .5" of total ice. Precip is on the light side so that will help with accretion. Temps rangning from 27-32F. I don't think a widespread .5-.75 is likely but i think its in the cards, like you said if everything goes right. .25-.50 is not an unreasonable forecast thought for interior S CT. Total snow before the flip is 3.7" on bufkit so well have a solid concrete pack for a while if that pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Or you can do it with heavy rates....but it needs to be a deluge for hours....this is what happened in ORH county in the 2008 icestorm....we had like 2.5 inches of QPF that produced an inch and a quarter to an inch and a half of ice. But it took like 18 hours of pretty heavy rates to get there. Granted, we prob got to half an inch of ice the prior evening after 10 hours or so, but we were wasting a ton of QPF with that runoff. That icestorm here in 1998 was over a two day period of mod/hvy at time rates with temps in the mid 20's, That was 2-3.0" accretion here and was devastating to say the least, By Thursday, Jan. 8, hundreds of thousands of homes were without power. CMP estimated that 2 million to 3 million feet of power lines fell and 2,000 utility poles needed to be replaced, along with 5,250 transformers. Bangor Hydro-Electric Co. likewise was hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Updated forecast WOAH at the SPC outlook “environment will support risk for multiple significant tornadoes” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 10"? where are those lollis? Somewhere near or NNW of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, Pluffmud said: Will this affect RI too? NW of PVD, yes, based on guidance. Not too familiar with your local climo enough to say whether or not it is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 This storm is going to be super exciting. We get to track a tornado outbreak in the south today and then quickly shift gears and watch us get snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As I said earlier, if you are encasing snow covered branches with ice it could lead to problems when the wind kicks in. It’s going to be a problem tomorrow but more so on Wed, as you mentioned. I have to remind myself to take the snow off my newly planted evergreens and shrubs...otherwise, the snow/ice/wind will destroy them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Updated forecast WOAH at the SPC outlook “environment will support risk for multiple significant tornadoes” Going big with the ice i see. I am likely bumping up the .1-.3 range to .25-.50, our zones are the same though. My biggest problem though is forecasting the shore, you think they dont see any ice accumulation at all? I dont think itll be as big as inland areas but still have up to a tenth or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I’m not overly concerned with freezing rain here. I can’t remember a significant icing event here at least in my lifetime. My guess is snow to sleet... ending as plain rain. I do think the majority of the precip is of the frozen variety here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Windsexy after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Check out the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Windsexy after. do tell. i haven't looked at anything after 00z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Dad doing OK but I'm still hanging out with him at new hospital : MGH. The room has some nice benefits. This will be an incredible view for the snowstorm tomorrow. Good to hear. Thinking of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: do tell. i haven't looked at anything after 00z tomorrow night Arctic front with some pretty strong squalls that can lay down an inch or 2. Lapse rates are impressive. Fraud 5 and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Arctic front with some pretty strong squalls that can lay down an inch or 2. Lapse rates are impressive. Fraud 5 and all. Freak had some nice pics about it in the December thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Glad dad is doing betterJay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: BUFKIT is showing 12 full hours of ZR for HVN, ranging from .017 to .169/hr usually ranging around .060 per hour for a total of .805. Say we lose 30-40% of that due to run off. That's still .5" of total ice. Precip is on the light side so that will help with accretion. Temps rangning from 27-32F. I don't think a widespread .5-.75 is likely but i think its in the cards, like you said if everything goes right. .25-.50 is not an unreasonable forecast thought for interior S CT. Total snow before the flip is 3.7" on bufkit so well have a solid concrete pack for a while if that pans out. Could see inland coastal CT getting up to .5, while those like me along the coast sit at 32.8F after a tenth of an inch or so of ice junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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