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12/17 Messy Mix


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Just now, dendrite said:

Be wary of the euro clown maps for SWFEs at a lot of sites too because of the lack of available levels in the algorithms. If the clown isn’t seeing a warm layer above H85 it may be calling it snow. Just sayin’.

Given this is pretty weak if it did produce decent QPF there would likely be an extended period of snow.  No question you'd have to watch the mid levels but this is not an event where you'd torch the mid levels after only a 1-2-3 hour period of snow

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Really?

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... With near zonal flow a progressive patter develops, and dry conditions will be short lived into early Monday. Surface high briefly builds behind the departing low to the north, and moves offshore Monday. Breezy conditions will be diminishing Sunday night as the high builds. The next system to impact the forecast area comes Monday as the high pushes offshore and a warm front develops and approaches from the southwest while at the same time, an area of low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the cold air will be replaced as high pressure tracks off shore Monday. With the progressive low have leaned toward a slightly warmer solutions, unlike the GFS and ECMWF. This low is forecast to track along the frontal boundary, moving in the vicinity of the forecast area Tuesday. Models show that the low will not be particularly strong as it heads over our region, but there could be a period of moderate precipitation Monday night associated with the approaching warm front. Uncertainty with model solutions Monday night onward will make precipitation type difficult to forecast at this point. However, do think thermal profiles will be cold enough at the start to support all snow at the start for most places, with a quick changeover to rain along the coast by mid Monday morning. However, QPF amounts will be light at this point, so little in the way of accumulation is expected. Despite warming aloft, there may be enough cold air in the lower levels where there may be an extended period of wintry precipitation inland, with freezing rain among the precipitation types. Again, this is 4 to 5 days out and the forecast is likely to change over the next couple of days. Associated cold front will move through late Monday night into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday through the end of next week, bringing below normal temperatures, but dry conditions.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  What’s with the large swath of green screw zone!  I want my qpf.  :)

I think you will be fine, Not a fan of the weak shredded look, We shall see where it goes, I'll have more interest on whats being modeled tomorrow and moreso at 0z Monday.

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