Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

12/17 Messy Mix


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Here's the 6Z ECMWF weenie map for you winter weather weenies :weenie::weenie::weenie:

 

Looks great here along 84, but I feel like the snow never ends up being on the high side of forecasts/model output with this type of system, coming from this direction. It seems like there is always a transition to sleet earlier than expected, hopefully I am wrong this time...

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Do you think this compares to last January, or maybe a little less?

Last jan was a different beast, definitely a bigger system. What really made that event really bad was the extreme drop in temperature combined with high winds right after. We got down into the single digits, nothing melted not even on the roads. And with the high winds, trees came down left and right, tons of people without power. This made it exceptionally bad for road crews to try and restore power.

The impact will be less this time for sure as we are not dealing with the winds and extreme temperatures. As far as straight ice accumulation i think it could approach or rival that of Jan 19 2019. Probably end up being a little bit less though i imagine.

iceokx.PNG.b92065211ceecbd7ce1ca45e142f712b.PNG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe some lollis, but overall with the relatively warm sounding and dry air sneaking into the DGZ I'm not locking anything more than 10:1 for a ratio. Much of the event could be a rather dense ratio in fact.

Heres the variable with 10 to 1. Funny how there is more snow in many spots , just reduces maxes. But I am going to watch final totals closely as I still think with the Euro lift and colder column there is a warning level strip. That website absolutely sucks on mobile. Geezuz 

acsnod_z3sfc_f48.png

acsnw_z3sfc_f48.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Heres the variable with 10 to 1. But I am going to watch final totals closely as I still think with the Euro lift and colder column there is a warning level strip. That website absolutely sucks on mobile. Geezuz 

 

 

I refuse to look at anything other than this forum on mobile. I don't know how you guys do it. It's like having your hands tied behind your back, but maybe that's what you're into

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Eastern Mass gridlock storm.   Everyone decided to leave work early right when the worst of the snows hit.  Not a big event (6"ish) but poorly timed.

I just happened to be on 95 that day coming back from Providence to go to a meeting in Scituate    :axe:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Eastern Mass gridlock storm.   Everyone decided to leave work early right when the worst of the snows hit.  Not a big event (6"ish) but poorly timed.

As always it's the surfaces that matter. Cold day coming in. Rapid accumulation on all surfaces. That's some pretty Thumpity Euro 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I certainly wonder if there can be like a 4-6'' spot up along the CT/MA border. Strongest lift here is just above the DGZ but the front end potential with this looks pretty intriguing. 

 

I agree. Probably going to be taking things up a bit for the final call. Want to check out the 12Z suite first. 

@weathafella

Deep Thruster & RPM with a 6-8 stripe along the MA boarder/I-90

mgWeb_WRF_20191216-090000_ANE_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png.f82513629d1d549b7c7be24510894f41.pngmgWeb_WRF_20191216-060000_ANEUS_EMPAS_F00390000_PwinterSnow_R15km.jpg.9965d4973f7e3d1fb24536b573f412bb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Last jan was a different beast, definitely a bigger system. What really made that event really bad was the extreme drop in temperature combined with high winds right after. We got down into the single digits, nothing melted not even on the roads. And with the high winds, trees came down left and right, tons of people without power. This made it exceptionally bad for road crews to try and restore power.

The impact will be less this time for sure as we are not dealing with the winds and extreme temperatures. As far as straight ice accumulation i think it could approach or rival that of Jan 19 2019. Probably end up being a little bit less though i imagine.

iceokx.PNG.b92065211ceecbd7ce1ca45e142f712b.PNG

Thanks. I had forgotten wind played a role last year. Should be a mess tomorrow at any rate. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@weatherwiz

Coolwx is a great site to get a quick glance at omega/growth and p-type accumulation, if bufkit isn't your thing. Even so, it's still faster than downloading and loading profiles into bufkit.

6Z GFS has a lot of ice for CT ranging from .1-.6 and NAM from .1-.4 with the exception of BDL. Again southern CT inland from the immediate coast looks to be in the most trouble.

.666 Ice for OXC on the GFS

prec.thumb.png.e90b17a5a562a6698cfb2ade27877904.png1556885349_prec(1).thumb.png.18323c924d1dd88790d8598b2d1ce041.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Snow88 said:

They cancel school for 4 inches ?:lol:

??? um...that seems to be more than enough from my experience in CT, i imagine NYC would be even more liberal with the cancellations. It depends on road conditions obviously. But almost all schools were cancelled here for the last storm across the state, even the shore and most places only got 2-4, with 0.5-2 at the coast. 

It all depends on timing. If we get 6-12 the night before and it ends at 4AM, there probably will be a 2 hour delay. If the forecast is for 2-4 or even 1-3 and its snowing at 5-9am, schools will be closed.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...