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12/17 Messy Mix


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Man Reggie blasts pike region. 

Surprised how suppressed it still is....that run may have been more suppressed than 18z...though kind of hard to tell because it was faster. I initially thought it was north but then i looked andsaw it was already collapsing the back end into eastern NY at 42 hours while 48 hours at 18z was still raging in W NY.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Surprised how suppressed it still is....that run may have been more suppressed than 18z...though kind of hard to tell because it was faster. I initially thought it was north but then i looked andsaw it was already collapsing the back end into eastern NY at 42 hours while 48 hours at 18z was still raging in W NY.

It was a solid hit from 18z-00z. I was thinking it would be north too. 

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This is why you see the term mid-level magic used so often.  I have not looked at H7 track tonight but I think a couple of tics N of that in latitude is usually good. 

Ascent so often in the cool season is sloped ascent too. So the rising air at 850 mb doesn't go straight up, it slopes towards the colder air (i.e. north) and continues rising through 700 mb.

That's a signal for widespread, broadbrushed snow. When you start stacking 700 mb lifts on top of 850 mb lift, that's when you get concentrated bands of heavy snow.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Ascent so often in the cool season is sloped ascent too. So the rising air at 850 mb doesn't go straight up, it slopes towards the colder air (i.e. north) and continues rising through 700 mb.

That's a signal for widespread, broadbrushed snow. When you start stacking 700 mb lifts on top of 850 mb lift, that's when you get concentrated bands of heavy snow.

thank you I appreciate that. 

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well gfs couldn’t get any warmer so back to a colder look. 

The only model that gets us above freezing so far....I think we touch 32 on the 3k, but barely, Tuesday looking quite wintry down here. I would prefer a few inches of snow before the flip, but beggers can't be choosers I guess....

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34 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The only model that gets us above freezing so far....I think we touch 32 on the 3k, but barely, Tuesday looking quite wintry down here. I would prefer a few inches of snow before the flip, but beggers can't be choosers I guess....

Mid-levels at your Lat are still going to torch at some point unless we get even more S ticks tomorrow. 

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