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12/17 Messy Mix


40/70 Benchmark
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Yeah I agree with scooter....3k isn't always better. Remember how poorly it handled the front end thump in the Dec 1-3 storm? It was pinging the chickens like 30 hours before the event started and I never even flipped here. 12k NAM wasn't as bad. Sometimes it does better synoptically, but I'd tend to focus on how it handles stuff like CAD vs what it's spitting out on the synoptic front.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I agree with scooter....3k isn't always better. Remember how poorly it handled the front end thump in the Dec 1-3 storm? It was pinging the chickens like 30 hours before the event started and I never even flipped here. 12k NAM wasn't as bad. Sometimes it does better synoptically, but I'd tend to focus on how it handles stuff like CAD vs what it's spitting out on the synoptic front.

I find it more unstable,  but agree with the CAD aspect. It’s good to gain insight to all that. 

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What would be disappointing for this event for you?

 

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If your expectations are anything but 1-3” or 2-4”, then yup.  Disappointed weenies

 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I was hoping you’d have a more positive weenie outlook this winter but alas, you’re the same...muthfukka...we have always known you as.

lol... it was a joke. 
 

Id say less than 2” would be disappointing...

Great winter so far, no complaints. 

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11 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Weird how the best lifting 700mb is so far north. Should I be looking at the 850mb? Which is further south

143925FC-D1D3-410B-8DF7-B87BB7575E1E.png

145FBFA9-0038-46E4-8777-D813855B287C.png

 

This is why you see the term mid-level magic used so often.  I have not looked at H7 track tonight but I think a couple of tics N of that in latitude is usually good. 

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