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12/17 Messy Mix


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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

One thing I am marginally afraid of tomorrow from about NYC-SW CT is that there could be an earlier surge in the 21-00Z window of precipitation that is unforecast by all models right now.  If that happened places like HPN/BDR could see a surprise several inches of snow

What gives you that inclination

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

3” of snow over 48+ hours is Ray’s favorite. 

If these new long duration runs continue you can double those amounts or more . If you think back to past big SNE winters.. they are littered with events like this that seem innocuous, but end up much snowier end game 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If these new long duration runs continue you can double those amounts or more . If you think back to past big SNE winters.. they are littered with events like this that seem innocuous, but end up much snowier end game 

I noted a similar observation before the 12/1 storm. This winter is starting to feel special despite the lack of retention. 
 

:weenie:

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Euro def ticked north a bit but it was also better on precip...the two are likely connected in this case. 

We should also say that it is nowhere near the 18z gfs solution as to not confuse people who aren't reading each model output. Euro was still pretty cold even though it was a bit warmer than 12z. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro def ticked north a bit but it was also better on precip...the two are likely connected in this case. 

We should also say that it is nowhere near the 18z gfs solution as to not confuse people who aren't reading each model output. Euro was still pretty cold even though it was a bit warmer than 12z. 

Colder at the surface

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro def ticked north a bit but it was also better on precip...the two are likely connected in this case. 

We should also say that it is nowhere near the 18z gfs solution as to not confuse people who aren't reading each model output. Euro was still pretty cold even though it was a bit warmer than 12z. 

It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31.

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31.

The temp issue does not surprise me.  The GFS is getting worse over time it seems with low level cold.  The evolution of the setup is probably too complicated as well. Models tend to struggle in these setups where you've got a dying wave of WAA precip as we do here then almost an entirely new system taking over.  They usually end up massively blowing some aspect of it.  This is why the belt from NYC to where you are is so tough tomorrow because they could bust both on the initial WAA area not dying as fast as expected and then the 2nd round being earlier/colder

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16 minutes ago, Nikoss427 said:

When are we expecting this to start, Monday night or more towards Tuesday morning. I'm hoping we can squeek out an early dismissal Tuesday by starting this later. We're already up to 3 snow days in my district. 

The early dismissal option is the only option that is not on the table.  Late openings Tuesday or cancellations are the 2 most likely outcomes... Early dismissals are in play when an event is arriving during the afternoon, not when it starts the night before or during the predawn hours.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The temp issue does not surprise me.  The GFS is getting worse over time it seems with low level cold.  The evolution of the setup is probably too complicated as well. Models tend to struggle in these setups where you've got a dying wave of WAA precip as we do here then almost an entirely new system taking over.  They usually end up massively blowing some aspect of it.  This is why the belt from NYC to where you are is so tough tomorrow because they could bust both on the initial WAA area not dying as fast as expected and then the 2nd round being earlier/colder

that would be nice. I'm making a map right now, actually 2, one for ice one for snow. Leaning heavily on the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian, disregarding the GFS. My biggest challenge right now i feel is the immediate shore and whether they flip over to rain or get prolonged icing. Past experience tells me BDR/HVN/GON should pop above 32 into the mid 30s

 

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The early dismissal option is the only option that is not on the table.  Late openings Tuesday or cancellations are the 2 most likely outcomes... Early dismissals are in play when an event is arriving during the afternoon, not when it starts the night before or during the predawn hours.

I forsee widespread closures for most of the state due to icing, with the exception of the immediate shore may just have delays or nothing at all, unless it ends up being much colder there.

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15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31.

A lot of that is the GFS is utterly clueless when it comes to LL CAD. You can toss the GFS BL temps. 

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17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The GFS will fumble that right up until go time. Just check the streamlines....northerly flow right to Long Island.

image.png

You'd think at some point they would correct an error that has been known in the model for decades now. 

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30 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

that would be nice. I'm making a map right now, actually 2, one for ice one for snow. Leaning heavily on the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian, disregarding the GFS. My biggest challenge right now i feel is the immediate shore and whether they flip over to rain or get prolonged icing. Past experience tells me BDR/HVN/GON should pop above 32 into the mid 30s

 

I forsee widespread closures for most of the state due to icing, with the exception of the immediate shore may just have delays or nothing at all, unless it ends up being much colder there.

No disagreement with that...  Ongoing winter precipitation events are almost always a cancellation, given desire of bus companies to stay off the roads when precip is still ongoing and opposition from DPW folks who do not like to have their trucks actively treating or scraping with kids standing along the sides of roads or at street corners...

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