ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Or wouldn't it be funny if the Euro held serve... was tossed, the nailed it and everything else was wrong. Muah hahahaha That's happened plenty of time....we all expect the Euro to trend like other guidance, it remains stubborn, and then other guidance caves. That said, the other guidance has already caved quite a bit to the Euro in the past 24-36 hours...so a tickle north on the Euro wouldn't be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Or wouldn't it be funny if the Euro held serve... was tossed, but nailed it ... such that everything else turns out wrong. Muah hahahaha I'd be fine with that, too. I like where I sit...probably no jp, but odds of zilch are very minute.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's happened plenty of time....we all expect the Euro to trend like other guidance, it remains stubborn, and then other guidance caves. That said, the other guidance has already caved quite a bit to the Euro in the past 24-36 hours...so a tickle north on the Euro wouldn't be surprising. It will def. come north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I'd be shocked if the euro doesnt bump north at least GFS was ugly for CT almost no snow and a lot of mixed ka ka, rain at the shore. GFS thermals and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It will def. come north... Why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Good to see more posts from Dryslot and not 10 pages of new posts after the 12z NAM/GFS. Must be better up here then. Less posts good, more posts bad. Usually a good indicator, better than any single model. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Why Strong hunch based upon swfe climo and trends among othwr guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd be fine with that, too. I like where I sit...probably no jp, but odds of zilch are very minute.. Kidding aside... I'm only joking like that because I have noticed a tendency to be "dealt reverses" ...almost like with uncanny timing in doing so too... weird. Just when consensi is achieve - up ending has not exactly been at a premium... a verification phenomenon that has been more common spanning really a year at this point. Not sure if its an interpretation thing, or the models really demonstrating enhanced variability... probably some of both. I remember the year after 1995-1996, expectations for modeling performance was culturally threw the roof. That winter the models were routinely nailing ... D10 storms with aplomb and polish. I mean it was ridiculous ... Then, after the thaw, the pattern reloads and the models were even better... That's never happened since. Years passing ...never a season with such success. Some very good, sure. Maybe the last 18 months is just not a good time for tech - I've seen more teleconnector modality breakdowns than normal too. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Now that I'm in ORH I can shed my qpf angst and start wearing my p-type woes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GGEM came south quite a bit...which isn't surprising since it was the northern outlier....goal posts are narrowing,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It will def. come north... Not in this setup. The high pressing. This will end up something like 00z Euro. You’re good for 1-3/2-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Strong hunch based upon swfe climo and trends among othwr guidance. Thanks for the explanation. I guess we will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not in this setup. The high pressing. This will end up something like 00z Euro. You’re good for 1-3/2-4 We'll see. High only impacts SLP.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We'll see. High only impacts SLP.... Not true a tall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not true a tall It does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks for the explanation. I guess we will see. Hey, I was wrong last time, so hopefully for CT I am again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM came south quite a bit...which isn't surprising since it was the northern outlier....goal posts are narrowing,. Congrats, Dave on the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Yeah GGEM is nice north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It does. Not worth the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, I was wrong last time, so hopefully for CT I am again. Don't rush your final call. You can still provide a value forecast 12 hrs prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 It's funny how the highs always trend toward Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Don't rush your final call. You can still provide a value forecast 12 hrs prior. It wasn't even that...it was just bad forecasting. I had a preconceived notion and didn't use soundings to see that that case was an exception. Learned alot from people like you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 It's like watching warm up bands at a concert. Some are good, some great but the main show is what you came for. Save a horse. If It makes a move towards a stronger WAA event or even follows the lead of the other globals with stronger surface pressure it usually does slowly. ENS are south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It wasn't even that...it was just bad forecasting. I had a preconceived notion and didn't use soundings to see that that case was an exception. Learned alot from people like you on that. Thanks for the cred. I right now haven't changed my initial read of a 2 to 4 here with 6 lollies in your area to Brian Jeff. Probably a nice glaze here with a little rain before the Arctic unleashes. A fraud 5 windsexy event to follow. Not boring at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It does. I know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I'll take the 6-8 10:1 ratio from the NAM/GFS and be happy. Seems like odds of a white Christmas are pretty good this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's funny how the highs always trend toward Tolland. Sorry you haven’t had any snow. Next weekend perhaps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 This is why torches are good. All are united. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Some solid icing on the horizon for my wct peeps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Some solid icing on the horizon for my wct peeps. Keep it. Unless it’s on snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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