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12/17 Messy Mix


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Or wouldn't it be funny if the Euro held serve... was tossed, the nailed it and everything else was wrong.   Muah hahahaha

That's happened plenty of time....we all expect the Euro to trend like other guidance, it remains stubborn, and then other guidance caves. That said, the other guidance has already caved quite a bit to the Euro in the past 24-36 hours...so a tickle north on the Euro wouldn't be surprising.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's happened plenty of time....we all expect the Euro to trend like other guidance, it remains stubborn, and then other guidance caves. That said, the other guidance has already caved quite a bit to the Euro in the past 24-36 hours...so a tickle north on the Euro wouldn't be surprising.

It will def. come north...

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd be fine with that, too. I like where I sit...probably no jp, but odds of zilch are very minute..

Kidding aside... I'm only joking like that because I have noticed a tendency to be "dealt reverses" ...almost like with uncanny timing in doing so too... weird.

Just when consensi is achieve - up ending has not exactly been at a premium... a verification phenomenon that has been more common spanning really a year at this point. Not sure if its an interpretation thing, or the models really demonstrating enhanced variability... probably some of both.

I remember the year after 1995-1996, expectations for modeling performance was culturally threw the roof.  That winter the models were routinely nailing ... D10 storms with aplomb and polish.  I mean it was ridiculous ... Then, after the thaw, the pattern reloads and the models were even better... 

That's never happened since. Years passing ...never a season with such success.  Some very good, sure.

Maybe the last 18 months is just not a good time for tech - I've seen more teleconnector modality breakdowns than normal too.  Interesting.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Don't rush your final call. You can still provide a value forecast 12 hrs prior.

It wasn't even that...it was just bad forecasting. I had a preconceived notion and didn't use soundings to see that that case was an exception. Learned alot from people like you on that.

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It's like watching warm up bands at a concert.  Some are good, some great but the main show is what you came for.  Save a horse.  If It makes a move towards a stronger WAA event or even follows the lead of the other globals with stronger surface pressure it usually does slowly.  ENS are south too 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It wasn't even that...it was just bad forecasting. I had a preconceived notion and didn't use soundings to see that that case was an exception. Learned alot from people like you on that.

Thanks for the cred. I right now haven't changed my initial read of a 2 to 4 here with 6 lollies in your area to Brian Jeff. Probably a nice glaze here with a little rain before the Arctic unleashes. A fraud 5 windsexy event to follow.  Not boring at all 

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