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12/17 Messy Mix


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Just now, purduewx80 said:

It shows a quarter to half inch of ice for a lot of CT/RI.

Yeah I'm a little skeptical.

Prob be some minor glaze in spots...but this is frigid below 850-900mb so my guess is the non-snow ptype in the interior will be mostly sleet. There may be a thin band of solid icing just inland from the south coast of C/SW CT where the midlevels really intrude deeper but sfc stays below freezing? 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z

 

IMG_4098.GIF

Are those MeteoCentre Snow liquid maps any more or less accurate than your typical snowmap from say wxbell or TT? Like, how wxbell and others will just use two layers (and im just throwing this out there) If 850 <0 & 925 <0 Then snow or how TT counts sleet as 10:1 snow. I always wondered about these.

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5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Are those MeteoCentre Snow liquid maps any more or less accurate than your typical snowmap from say wxbell or TT? Like, how wxbell and others will just use two layers (and im just throwing this out there) If 850 <0 & 925 <0 Then snow or how TT counts sleet as 10:1 snow. I always wondered about these.

I think a lot of the mesos put out their own ptype or even snowfall/ratio. I'm a little out of the loop with the details of what models can do what over the least 5 or so year, but that was at least my understanding.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm a little skeptical.

Prob be some minor glaze in spots...but this is frigid below 850-900mb so my guess is the non-snow ptype in the interior will be mostly sleet. There may be a thin band of solid icing just inland from the south coast of C/SW CT where the midlevels really intrude deeper but sfc stays below freezing? 

I'm a prime candidate for this statement right now, bad icing tends to occured in this area last year on multiple storms...

Anybody remember this? Terrible situation.

12Z RGEM coming out now just able to look at the CMC-Ptype page, looks like the initial thump cut way back. Precip shield is much lighter on the front end but thats only to hr48.

01_20.19_ice_totals.thumb.jpg.af53199e5d11a4d7b487525910981e2e.jpg

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think a lot of the mesos put out their own ptype or even snowfall/ratio. I'm a little out of the loop with the details of what models can do what over the least 5 or so year, but that was at least my understanding.

RGEM def has its own ptype algorithm unlike, say, the Euro. It's why it's one of the few TT maps that doesn't say "includes sleet" in the snowfall. So I'm pretty sure meteocentre just rips the liquid straight from the RGEM ptype parameter.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM def has its own ptype algorithm unlike, say, the Euro. It's why it's one of the few TT maps that doesn't say "includes sleet" in the snowfall. So I'm pretty sure meteocentre just rips the liquid straight from the RGEM ptype parameter.

I know the ICON and 3k NAM have their own as well. So I guess you can throw the herpes into that mix as well.

weather.us has some rare Euro maps you won't find elsewhere. There's a significant weather map there which makes me think the euro does put something out for ptype...since the maps include t'storms and fog as well. I doubt the US vendors are getting ALL of the euro data. I mean weather.us has heat flux, moisture flux, ozone, etc.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

However, it had one of the worst performances I've ever seen in the last event.

One storm that comes to mind that it latched on to early and infact did not waffle back and forth as it usually does was Jan 23rd 2016 blizzard. It actually did pretty well, it was a hair too far north with the heaviest qpf but overall a good performance from what i remember.

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