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12/17 Messy Mix

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:17 AM, WinterWolf said:

I wouldn’t even trust em one bit on the extended either though...they can’t Nail down a system 6 hours away...9 days away, forget about it. They’re all over the place.

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I would actually argue that they are better at sniffing out a real threat in the long ranges when your realistic window is much larger than when you're trying to pin it down to hours.

It's the near term when a 20 mile shift can really wreck a forecast that the higher resolution guidance is showing big differences. That's why when all else fails you need to work from the top down. A model is way less likely to whiff on a jet streak, than a vort max, than the 850 front, etc. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:21 AM, OceanStWx said:

I would actually argue that they are better at sniffing out a real threat in the long ranges when your realistic window is much larger than when you're trying to pin it down to hours.

It's the near term when a 20 mile shift can really wreck a forecast that the higher resolution guidance is showing big differences. That's why when all else fails you need to work from the top down. A model is way less likely to whiff on a jet streak, than a vort max, than the 850 front, etc. 

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Oh, so were gonna get that big storm then come next Monday...cuz all modeling sniffed it out at some point the last 4-5 days....Right..Right???  Lol.  

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:26 AM, WinterWolf said:

Oh, so were gonna get that big storm then come next Monday...cuz all modeling sniffed it out at some point the last 4-5 days....Right..Right???  Lol.  

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I'm not talking cherry picking one run, but multiple models showing a couple day window with an event. I never saw any agreement from modeling on what to do with that PV streamer drifting aimlessly across the country.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:08 AM, WinterWolf said:

It was a total fail on modeling for sure. What a poor job by all of them period.  They’ve been pathetic this early winter so far..big time struggling on so many situations. 

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They do great on the warm rainers though.

I'm still hoping for a few inches.  While there may be less qpf, it sounds from recent posts there will be less taint.  Glass half-full.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:31 AM, OceanStWx said:

I'm not talking cherry picking one run, but multiple models showing a couple day window with an event. I never saw any agreement from modeling on what to do with that PV streamer drifting aimlessly across the country.

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I was being A lil sarcastic on that.  But wasn’t cherry picking.  There was multi model agreement on a big system on the east coast however, but they all had a lil different idea on how that conclusion was reached. But that’s par for a system out at 8 days...I think you get my point.  
 

This is a monster fail on modeling...so there is no sugar coating it. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:36 AM, WinterWolf said:

I was being A lil sarcastic on that.  But wasn’t cherry picking.  There was multi model agreement on a big system on the east coast however, but they all had a lil different idea on how that conclusion was reached. But that’s par for a system out at 8 days...I think you get my point.  
 

This is a monster fail on modeling...so there is no sugar coating it. 

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Needle threaders are definitely going to carry more risk at disappearing than the ones in a pattern that is supportive. 

I mean while we were weenie-ing out on the impending 3 day snow storm, the GFS was showing a potential stemwinder at hour 288. Turns out it was off by 24 hours, but 4 inches of rain later it did sniff out a big system. It was just wet not white. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:44 AM, OceanStWx said:

Needle threaders are definitely going to carry more risk at disappearing than the ones in a pattern that is supportive. 

I mean while we were weenie-ing out on the impending 3 day snow storm, the GFS was showing a potential stemwinder at hour 288. Turns out it was off by 24 hours, but 4 inches of rain later it did sniff out a big system. It was just wet not white. 

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Aaah...you always got a take on why it isn’t a model fail...but you should, it’s your job.  This was a complete fail in SNE imo.  Not gonna talk me out of it this time Chris lol. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:48 AM, WinterWolf said:

Aaah...you always got a take on why it isn’t a model fail...but you should, it’s your job.  This was a complete fail in SNE imo.  Not gonna talk me out of it this time Chris lol. 

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Oh no, this system was crap on guidance. The only success is that models were consistently showing rather poor snow growth. But moving the best forcing that far north in the last 24 hours was not a great showing.

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:51 AM, OceanStWx said:

Oh no, this system was crap on guidance. The only success is that models were consistently showing rather poor snow growth. But moving the best forcing that far north in the last 24 hours was not a great showing.

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you think nws will change amounts or holding tight?, sheared off?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 12:00 PM, WinterWolf said:

All of it was., that’s why every forecast from even 11:00 pm last night(pro or hobbyist)is gonna bust..in the snow accumulation department for SNE. 

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But that’s why you adjust with trends. It was last minute, but better than nothing to change forecast. Models that assimilate with real time obs like hrrr do help. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 11:56 AM, CoastalWx said:

A lot of guidance was bad. At least down here.  

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It was weird seeing the euro so far south on its own for so long. In the back of my mind I kept thinking it would cave. But none of the other models really showed much consistency other than I guess the GFS. But even then it tickled south and cooler some in the last 36hrs. It was difficult to get a feel for which side would win. I guess Wizzy's tornado gave the downstream ridging one more pump poleward. But it's not like anyone down there is missing a blockbuster.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 12:05 PM, dendrite said:

It was weird seeing the euro so far south on its own for so long. In the back of my mind I kept thinking it would cave. But none of the other models really showed much consistency other than I guess the GFS. But even then it tickled south and cooler some in the last 36hrs. It was difficult to get a feel for which side would win. I guess Wizzy's tornado gave the downstream ridging one more pump poleward. But it's not like anyone down there is missing a blockbuster.

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I just feel bad for Kevin's kids watching him drag the tree out to the curb because Christmas is cancelled. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 12:04 PM, CoastalWx said:

But that’s why you adjust with trends. It was last minute, but better than nothing to change forecast. Models that assimilate with real time obs like hrrr do help. 

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Chris, lots of peeps go to bed before 11 pm, and they went to bed with a 3-6 inch snow accumulation call for a lot interior SNE.  
 

Then at 11 pm, the forecast was changed and downgraded to 1-3 inches, and that’s gonna bust too.  This was a horrible performance by modeling...plain and simple. 
 

And That’s my point...sure you can keep changing with every model run of the HRRR etc etc in a situation like this...but that doesn’t help the 99% of the general public who’s definitely not watching every model run every hour.  

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2019 at 11:04 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats on 2-3”.

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Maybe .25" if I am lucky. 

  On 12/16/2019 at 11:18 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you always think their maps are correct? Lol. Those will continue coming up today. They always go conservative 

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The forecast I heard for this was not conservative enough. 

The 1" was way too generous. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/17/2019 at 12:05 PM, dendrite said:

It was weird seeing the euro so far south on its own for so long. In the back of my mind I kept thinking it would cave. But none of the other models really showed much consistency other than I guess the GFS. But even then it tickled south and cooler some in the last 36hrs. It was difficult to get a feel for which side would win. I guess Wizzy's tornado gave the downstream ridging one more pump poleward. But it's not like anyone down there is missing a blockbuster.

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Seems like even the northern guidance failed too because they were showing a way more organized system than this is. I mean, this thing looks horrendous. 

Orginally when this was bumping north the  WCB started looking much better. Now guidance is having a hard time producing a quarter inch total in 6 hours here. :lol:

Maybe this tries to get going this morning but it still looks pretty shredded and disorganized on radar. 

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