40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 Reggie and ICON are identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 42 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said: I got a generator because of that damaging ice storm in Bethany last year. Bring it on. I have one too but would rather not have to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Reggie and ICON are identical. Great, strength in model agreement this close in. We should have a few fun hours of snowfall in full daylight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Great, strength in model agreement this close in. We should have a few fun hours of snowfall in full daylight tomorrow. I think some of the guidance is overtrending...just like I felt the suppressed tracks were BS. I feel good about my call. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think some of the guidance is overtrending...just like I felt the suppressed tracks were BS. I feel good about my call. Agree. I'm not falling for this like I did a storm or two ago. If the fronto slams before the switch to mix, along mass pike to NH border is still the best place to be. Could snow several inches quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Agree. I'm not falling for this like I did a storm or two ago. If the fronto slams before the switch to mix, along mass pike to NH border is still the best place to be. Could snow several inches quickly. Definitely not expecting a SNINCR 4/8 at MHT again, but right around midday there is some potential for 1"/hr stuff in a couple hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Man, just woke up and saw this storm and it looks putrid. Some of the guidance slides most of the best forcing offshore southeast of New England. What a disaster for the models on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Man, just woke up and saw this storm and it looks putrid. Some of the guidance slides most of the best forcing offshore southeast of New England. What a disaster for the models on this one. Fugly. Sand here lots of low level stuff going on. Freezing drizzle near the shore, down to 26 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Fugly. Sand here lots of low level stuff going on. Freezing drizzle near the shore, down to 26 now. It's funny...in my head the whole time I was thinking "why is the thump looking so healthy when the shortwave look hasn't really improved?"...but I just kind of ignored that question and figured the models had this. Boy, was I wrong. My initial instinct on the really sheared shortwave look seemed to be the one to follow. It's not a more classic consolidated vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Radar looks lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's funny...in my head the whole time I was thinking "why is the thump looking so healthy when the shortwave look hasn't really improved?"...but I just kind of ignored that question and figured the models had this. Boy, was I wrong. My initial instinct on the really sheared shortwave look seemed to be the one to follow. It's not a more classic consolidated vortmax. Its definitely weird. Tornados suck in all ways. Well I guess I will have to jump my 1 hour of squalls Wed now lol. Wiz might be all over the lapse rates with some TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 The whole thing is a mess. From higher heights possibly from convection, squall lines racing east and screwing up the conveyor belts, and sheared s/w. If you compare 850mb valid at 12z today from 6z runs today vs 12z runs yesterday, the WAA is not classic. It’s gotten worse. You don’t have the classic 60kts from the SW hitting a wall. It’s more stretched out over the waters to our south. That’s not helping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: The whole thing is a mess. From higher heights possibly from convection, squall lines racing east and screwing up the conveyor belts, and sheared s/w. If you compare 850mb valid at 12z today from 6z runs today vs 12z runs yesterday, the WAA is not classic. It’s gotten worse. You don’t have the classic 60kts from the SW hitting a wall. It’s more stretched out over the waters to our south. That’s not helping. I'm wondering how warm it even gets aloft....recent guidance is cooling things again. N of Pike might not even get a warm layer or if they do it might be weak and not last very long. The real strong warm nose gets pushed eastward more...which is also making the thump look even worse. But that is pretty classic for a sheared system that can't really wrap up a more consolidated WCB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The whole thing is a mess. From higher heights possibly from convection, squall lines racing east and screwing up the conveyor belts, and sheared s/w. If you compare 850mb valid at 12z today from 6z runs today vs 12z runs yesterday, the WAA is not classic. It’s gotten worse. You don’t have the classic 60kts from the SW hitting a wall. It’s more stretched out over the waters to our south. That’s not helping. What were ya'll expecting I haven't looked at models for New England until I got into work this evening. I thought SNE was generally looking at a 1-3" scenario with a mixed bag of precipitation. Everyone seems pretty let down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 NAM appeared to be verifying the best in regards to the location of the warm nose when I got into work but I haven't checked to see what it was showing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Sleet and freezing drizzle 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm wondering how warm it even gets aloft....recent guidance is cooling things again. N of Pike might not even get a warm layer or if they do it might be weak and not last very long. The real strong warm nose gets pushed eastward more...which is also making the thump look even worse. But that is pretty classic for a sheared system that can't really wrap up a more consolidated WCB. I was wondering that. Might be lighter, but it may not flip over past like BED-ORH maybe? Yeah the thrust is east for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: What were ya'll expecting I haven't looked at models for New England until I got into work this evening. I thought SNE was generally looking at a 1-3" scenario with a mixed bag of precipitation. Everyone seems pretty let down. I definitely looked like north of the pike after 12z runs yesterday could get 4-6" I brought Logan down to 2-3" and it might be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I definitely looked like north of the pike after 12z runs yesterday could get 4-6" I brought Logan down to 2-3" and it might be generous. I don't think a whole lot changed from the pretty rough look in the snow growth zone, it just got shoved a whole sub-sub-region north (SNE to CNE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Certainly a very poor effort by me on this . Very bad. The worst part is most of SNE probably loses the White Xmas. With no other storms coming , we needed this one to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I don't think a whole lot changed from the pretty rough look in the snow growth zone, it just got shoved a whole sub-sub-region north (SNE to CNE). There was about 2-3 hrs where the HRRR was giving a cross hairs signal in these parts. Now it's giving us the middle finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly a very poor effort by me on this . Very bad. The worst part is most of SNE probably loses the White Xmas. With no other storms coming , we needed this one to happen. It was an uncharacteristic fail all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It was an uncharacteristic fail all around. I don't know about this FV3 version of the KFS... Still some signs that we may be able to pull off a couple hours up here where we can tick off a couple inches real quick, but it's definitely not a high confidence deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly a very poor effort by me on this . Very bad. The worst part is most of SNE probably loses the White Xmas. With no other storms coming , we needed this one to happen. At least you got accumulating snow already. I got all rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I don't know about this FV3 version of the KFS... Still some signs that we may be able to pull off a couple hours up here where we can tick off a couple inches real quick, but it's definitely not a high confidence deal. What are you expecting at PWM? Based on what I was looking at tonight, well, this morning now I guess lol, I was thinking 4-6" mainly this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly a very poor effort by me on this . Very bad. The worst part is most of SNE probably loses the White Xmas. With no other storms coming , we needed this one to happen. It was a total fail on modeling for sure. What a poor job by all of them period. They’ve been pathetic this early winter so far..big time struggling on so many situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It was a total fail on modeling for sure. What a poor job by all of them period. They’ve been pathetic this early winter so far..big time struggling on so many situations. The modeling has been pretty bad overall this cold season so far. Sometimes you can see they’re going to be wrong. But in this one it just seemed like we had everything lining up for a classic thump. We get our icestorm which is fine, but I’m really bummed about no White Xmas for much of the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 About a half inch of snow/sleet under a nice glaze of ice. 30 and freezing rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The modeling has been pretty bad overall this cold season so far. Sometimes you can see they’re going to be wrong. But in this one it just seemed like we had everything lining up for a classic thump. We get our icestorm which is fine, but I’m really bummed about no White Xmas for much of the region. I wouldn’t even trust em one bit on the extended either though...they can’t Nail down a system 6 hours away...9 days away, forget about it. They’re all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: What are you expecting at PWM? Based on what I was looking at tonight, well, this morning now I guess lol, I was thinking 4-6" mainly this afternoon. I'm closer to the 4", but that's the ballpark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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