CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Those TT maps include sleet and should not be looked at or posted. They are not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said: ALY was hinting at that earlier in their AFD regarding the increase in QPF for their zones: This is possibly related to the latent heat from the Deep South storms building the downstream ridge and enhancing lift from the equatorward entrance region of the strong jet Models had lots of convection, but not sure what else would cause the jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We Lucy. Perhaps all the convection played a role. Just getting into the office now and first look at the lightning looks pretty favorable for nice moisture transport into our front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Those TT maps include sleet and should not be looked at or posted. They are not realistic. i know and it said that. includes sleet. just showing diff meso guidance since we nearing event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 In all seriousness it is more the exception than the norm to see a cold press dominate a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Those TT maps include sleet and should not be looked at or posted. They are not realistic. Winter tornados suck it. Always mess with our snowstorms. Wagons north. Congrats Dendrite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: i know and it said that. includes sleet. just showing diff meso guidance since we nearing event They're just going to lead weenies into false hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We Lucy. Perhaps all the convection played a role. Gotta imagine the convection in the SE today gave the hires stuff fits today. But what a huge change 12z to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They're just going to lead weenies into false hopes. that was not my intention in sharing those. but i do see what you are saying. much of what is on that map is indeed sleet at least in the southern regions! just want to note the juicer and north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 We pray the BTV WRF is right, but probably is not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Was that the really cold, snow winter? It was not a real cold winter, But it was a snowy one, We had a lot of these over runners that season, I don't think areas in CT did well with them if i recall, But Hippys area to Brian to me did exceptional, I think Ray did too, Its actually my 3rd best winter all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: In all seriousness it is more the exception than the norm to see a cold press dominate a SWFE. That was voo doo weenie babble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 HRRR is like 2" to the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: HRRR is like 2" to the NH border. All those schools that cancelled already going to look really bad. Cant go to school in 38 degree rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/best-advice-with-regard-to-tomorrow.html You probably (and rightfully) had that drawn up in your mind days ago but stayed level headed to ingest any potential model surprises inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Isn’t HRRR useless beyond the very near term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: All those schools that cancelled already going to look really bad. Cant go to school in 38 degree rain? It's going to be nasty inland, whether it's 2-4" then ice or 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Might be a fun icestorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/best-advice-with-regard-to-tomorrow.html I'll take that and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Models had lots of convection, but not sure what else would cause the jump north. This was the sensitivity map from 12z yesterday. That blue over us was saying lower heights there matched a more suppressed (higher surface pressures over New England) system. So the converse being true, latent heating from convection pumping those heights up would lead to a more amped system and lower pressure over New England. Seems a completely reasonable hypothesis that convection played a significant role here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Isn’t HRRR useless beyond the very near term? The writing is kind of on the wall... it may be overdone... but the general theme stands. Wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Was that the really cold, snow winter? 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: It was not a real cold winter, But it was a snowy one, We had a lot of these over runners that season, I don't think areas in CT did well with them if i recall, But Hippys area to Brian to me did exceptional, I think Ray did too, Its actually my 3rd best winter all time That was our first winter in Greenfield. Big December IIRC. Great winter overall. I remember my neighbors, who were all lifers here, saying "it was a good old fashioned Greenfield winter". Coming from Cambridge I was just glad to finally have off street parking! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That was our first winter in Greenfield. Big December IIRC. Great winter overall. I remember my neighbors, who were all lifers here, saying "it was a good old fashioned Greenfield winter". Coming from Cambridge I was just glad to finally have off street parking! lol I remember one year we were getting moderate snows at 10 degrees, just don't remember what year, that was a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This was the sensitivity map from 12z yesterday. That blue over us was saying lower heights there matched a more suppressed (higher surface pressures over New England) system. So the converse being true, latent heating from convection pumping those heights up would lead to a more amped system and lower pressure over New England. Seems a completely reasonable hypothesis that convection played a significant role here. Yeah it's the only thing I can think of. Lots of heavy rain ans thunder up and down OV to Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The writing is kind of on the wall... it may be overdone... but the general theme stands. Wagons north SNH will get more than 2 inches...pretty confident about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Might be a fun icestorm.. Oh' it will definitely be an ice storm for some, fun is a matter of one's particular fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I remember one year we were getting moderate snows at 10 degrees, just don't remember what year, that was a good winter. Where were you then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: SNH will get more than 2 inches...pretty confident about that. I'm about 12mi from VT border and I am planning on more than 2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm about 12mi from VT border and I am planning on more than 2"... You will...well you better lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I remember one year we were getting moderate snows at 10 degrees, just don't remember what year, that was a good winter. December 13 the single digit snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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