blizzard24 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 like some weather people that had told me they dont look at models hours before a storm . because storm wont change that much. to many look at weather models during or hours before the storm. storm wont change to what models say hours before the storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just read the GYX AFD, Looks like there going to take them up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I have a hard time buying hrrr’s sfc temps. I’ll go down with the ship if we hit 34/35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 that why i like brad field he sticks with his forecast doesnt change every model run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Time for now cast..it’s on the doorstep now. Sometimes it’s time to just see what plays out and put the models away. The calls have been made, let’s see what transpires. Enjoy whatever comes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Gotta say. This system hasn’t been the easiest for models to grasp. Still some late shifts going on. Not a stellar performance by far. Going to be a long winter if this how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:53 AM, WinterWolf said: Time for now cast..it’s on the doorstep now. Sometimes it’s time to just see what plays out and put the models away. The calls have been made, let’s see what transpires. Enjoy whatever comes. Expand Still a good 12hrs before we see a flake here, I'll know by you guys obs how this is going to play out but i have a good idea already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Man, Nammy looks quite icy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:53 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have a hard time buying hrrr’s sfc temps. I’ll go down with the ship if we hit 34/35. Expand Maybe at the end when it is a light foggy mist to put a surreal enhancement on your snow/ice encased surroundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:53 AM, blizzard24 said: that why i like brad field he sticks with his forecast doesnt change every model run. Expand I’m always pro ‘stick to your forecast’ but there are times where one should and needs to adjust. Not sure this is one of them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:56 AM, dryslot said: Still a good 12hrs before we see a flake here, I'll know by you guys obs how this is going to play out but i have a good idea already. Expand Oh ya for you, I was meaning for us SNE folks, it’s a few hours at most from here. I Should have specified that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 WRF-NMM is a solid hit for northern areas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 GFS win? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:56 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m always pro ‘stick to your forecast’ but there are times where one should and needs to adjust. Not sure this is one of them though. Expand That’s true, but I don’t think this is an adjustment time. Stick to it now. It’s a few hours at most away. Mesos are all over the place. Stick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:56 AM, Hoth said: Man, Nammy looks quite icy here. Expand awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:56 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Maybe at the end when it is a light foggy mist to put a surreal enhancement on your snow/ice encased surroundings. Expand Oh yea it’ll be at the tail end but I still don’t think it happens when the sfc tucks in below LI and that early. Usually in swfe the primary goes into Buf and the sfc low tucks late over Jimmy’s head. I usually warm into the mid 30s then...but this looks different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Nah all models north. Classic SWFE. The press, would like to press Kevin's head into a wall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Surface temps for most of CT stay below freezing for much of CT on most models I've looked at tonight. SOmnebody is getting a good slug of ice tomorrow. Kevin is going to be secretly crestfallen when he gets a nice SN/PL event but other CT peeps are posting pictures of ice encased landscapes and skaters on side streets and town sidewalks across Central CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Reggie is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 ARW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 3:03 AM, CoastalWx said: Nah all models north. Classic SWFE. The press, would like to press Kevin's head into a wall. Expand This storm reminds me a lot to what we had in the winter of 07/08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 3:03 AM, CoastalWx said: Nah all models north. Classic SWFE. The press, would like to press Kevin's head into a wall. Expand The sleet will do that. His new snowblower will be rendered useless by the ice encrusted sea of pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 4:11 PM, The 4 Seasons said: @OceanStWx can correct me but i think they did away with the Freezing Rain & Ice Storm Warning products and lumped themp into WWA and WSW products. But this is the criteria nontheless. I think we are a candidate for this in the four southern counties of CT. Highly doubt they will be up this evening though. Expand Hazard Simplification wrapped up all advisory level hazards into "Winter Weather Advisory for..." style headlines. Ice Storm Warnings still exist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 3:04 AM, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Expand NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:36 AM, CoastalWx said: We Lucy. Perhaps all the convection played a role. Expand ALY was hinting at that earlier in their AFD regarding the increase in QPF for their zones: This is possibly related to the latent heat from the Deep South storms building the downstream ridge and enhancing lift from the equatorward entrance region of the strong jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/best-advice-with-regard-to-tomorrow.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 3:07 AM, dryslot said: This storm reminds me a lot to what we had in the winter of 07/08 Expand Was that the really cold, snow winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 ARW2 his big brother. he disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Ryan just dropped to 1 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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