dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Gawd is that RPM unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:11 AM, ORH_wxman said: Here you go Jerry. Fresh off the presses 00z run. Really hitting the rt 2 to pickles corridor good. Expand Looks like we’re honing into a typical SNE swfe. Thanks Will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:13 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Nobody should ever ignore potential speed of the mid-level warming in these events. The big question for some of the CT peeps is it a pack building sleet fest or full on 6+ hour ice storm? Expand These always start sooner then modeled too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:13 AM, dryslot said: Gawd is that RPM unstable. Expand Brutally unstable. Then again, most models have been with this...for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 There are not many folks I would trade locations with for SWFE systems. I rarely jackpot but I'm always late to the pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:11 AM, ORH_wxman said: Here you go Jerry. Fresh off the presses 00z run. Really hitting the rt 2 to pickles corridor good. Expand Congrats, Chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:16 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: There are not many folks I would trade locations with for SWFE systems. I rarely jackpot but I'm always late to the pingers. Expand If ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:14 AM, dryslot said: These always start sooner then modeled too. Expand Yeah, despite calls for days of snow I'm thinking half a day of snow here but it should be a productive half day of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 A pink hippy jack dot for the hipster himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:15 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Brutally unstable. Then again, most models have been with this...for some reason. Expand Even most of the main models started buying the initial thump down south earlier today. But it seems the guidance is now backing off on this initial surge entering E PA/NJ. They just fizzle it out. This was what was supposed to keep intensifying and give S CT the snow...but if it ends up weak then you get just a little bit of snow before the pingers and ZR down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:16 AM, moneypitmike said: Congrats, Chris! Expand Good lift FTW! We'll see, I'm sticking with my 4-6" call from Saturday but not sweating p-type issues at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Radar looking pretty decent to the SW in PA. It actually looks to have pulsed up over the last couple hours as it’s heading this way. So at least there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:12 AM, weathafella said: Damn ...just ran a skew......sleet in by 17z at bos Expand Jerry--what are you using to get your skews? TT isn't working for me for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:14 AM, weathafella said: Looks like we’re honing into a typical SNE swfe. Thanks Will! Expand Backed off quite a bit south of the pike from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:19 AM, ORH_wxman said: Even most of the main models started buying the initial thump down south earlier today. But it seems the guidance is now backing off on this initial surge entering E PA/NJ. They just fizzle it out. This was what was supposed to keep intensifying and give S CT the snow...but if it ends up weak then you get just a little bit of snow before the pingers and ZR down there. Expand It’s a razor thin setup when a 2-3hr thump based on a surge/pulse from the sw is the difference between 1-2” and like 4-6”. Can still go either way really but leaning towards the low end of my 2-4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:13 AM, dryslot said: Gawd is that RPM unstable. Expand Comparing to some of the earlier runs... laughable down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Calling it a night.....hopefully Will will be posting radar loops tomorrow of the sleet hitting a wall as it approaches the pike. With some of the things we're seeing tonight, I'm not sure they'll be a lot of stalling of that northward march. Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:29 AM, moneypitmike said: Jerry--what are you using to get your skews? TT isn't working for me for some reason. Expand SV option. Paywalled but available on a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:32 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Comparing to some of the earlier runs... laughable down here Expand We Lucy. Perhaps all the convection played a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:32 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a razor thin setup when a 2-3hr thump based on a surge/pulse from the sw is the difference between 1-2” and like 4-6”. Can still go either way really but leaning towards the low end of my 2-4”. Expand You're getting a lot of winter precipitation tomorrow, hope for your sake it is SN/PL and not FZRA. Somebody is getting an ice storm though, that's pretty well hinted at in more than a few models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:36 AM, CoastalWx said: We Lucy. Perhaps all the convection played a role. Expand Yeah... sucks... hope for an inch or two then washed away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Freezing rain already in Northern NJ, SENY reporting sleet/freezing rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Latest trends on some mesos suck here for snow, hopefully just noise and we throw down 2-4 or 3-5 type amounts followed by a good dose of pack preserving sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 FWIW that French Meteo model seems to agree with a fairly strong mid-level warm push up to or just beyond the Pike. Pretty juicy look on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 My 1-2 is looking too high at the moment.... C-1" before flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:39 AM, CTValleySnowMan said: Latest trends on some mesos suck here for snow, hopefully just noise and we throw down 2-4 or 3-5 type amounts followed by a good dose of pack preserving sleet and ZR. Expand You're good for 2-4" and then some paint peeling pingers to strengthen the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Trend isn’t your friend.... hopefully this doesn’t turn into a coating to pellets to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Pretty icy in CT I think if these trends hold. Western RI too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:45 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Trend isn’t your friend.... hopefully this doesn’t turn into a coating to pellets to rain. Expand You’ll get a few inches still I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 2:48 AM, CoastalWx said: Pretty icy in CT I think if these trends hold. Western RI too. Expand Would love a good icestorm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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