Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Just sayin.. Noticing a marked warming trend at 850 on the HRRR, it seems to have halted this current run though. QPF cut back a bit as well HRRR 850s had to warm, its been one of the coldest solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: HRRR 850s had to warm, its been one of the coldest solutions. It’s also torching the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s also torching the surface. Not really it's in the 20s for you and me through 12Z and below freezing the entire run through 16Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s also torching the surface. It seems the HRRRV4 or what ever it is called has better surface temps than its parent?, just an observation from this past month....I do think the trend has been less snow and more sleet/frz rain or what ever mess comes after the snow switches....Early season SWFE have too much warm water to work with, transition happens earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: It seems the HRRRV4 or what ever it is called has better surface temps than its parent?, just an observation from this past month....I do think the trend has been less snow and more sleet/frz rain or what ever mess comes after the snow switches....Early season SWFE have too much warm water to work with, transition happens earlier. Warm water? This is all WAA aloft . Not water related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Not really it's in the 20s for you and me through 12Z and below freezing the entire run through 16Z 22z at hr18 pushing 33f here lol not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 hours ago, PowderBeard said: Just looked at the 12z HRRR. Thing has been $ so far this year. Caught the mix line and timing very well as well as banding areas in the 12-2 storm (although a lot more than was modeled) and did well with the two smaller events. I'll ride it. 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: hrrr all over the place, not trusted. We tried to tell em. Am I americanwx'ing correctly yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Warm water? This is all WAA aloft . Not water related He means the LI sound/Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: He means the LI sound/Atlantic I know but it could be frozen solid and it would be same result. SWFE. Flow coming from southwest. Warming aloft with cold north drain surface. This isn’t a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 26/7 already at KDAW. This looks good for SNE weenies. Go long the 12z ARW WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Schools sytems in Woodstock and Putnam in NE CT cancelled for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know but it could be frozen solid and it would be same result. SWFE. Flow coming from southwest. Warming aloft with cold north drain surface. This isn’t a coastal Well I think he’s thinking he gets some warming due to the warmer water this early on in The season...?? Or maybe I misunderstood him?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Well I think he’s thinking he gets some warming due to the warmer water this early on in The season...?? Or maybe I misunderstood him?? Lol Maybe from Candlewood Lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe from Candlewood Lake? Lol...could be. Or Lake Zore?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro looked a ticked colder/flatter but the thump looks weaker to me because of that. No massive changes though from a broader perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro looked a little less emphatic on the thump as well. Hopefully a burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looked a little less emphatic on the thump as well. Hopefully a burp. Scott what time do you think the thump hits Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Euro and rpm try for another inch or so tomorrow evening inside 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, 8611Blizz said: Scott what time do you think the thump hits Boston? 5am or so? Steady by 6 maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looked a little less emphatic on the thump as well. Hopefully a burp. Ray just threw a soiled diaper at his mac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looked a little less emphatic on the thump as well. Hopefully a burp. Toss 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 5am or so? Steady by 6 maybe. I’m off tomorrow. Wake up at 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 HRRR has really cut back over last few runs. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR has really cut back over last few runs. Interesting. Total Qpf? NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know but it could be frozen solid and it would be same result. SWFE. Flow coming from southwest. Warming aloft with cold north drain surface. This isn’t a coastal I understand the main idea behind a SWFE, I'm talking down here along the shoreline and even most of CT...If you look at the wind directions at different levels. Any winds with a ssw component that pull from anybody of water ie. sound/ocean (water temps are upper 40s to near 50 south of Long Island) Doesn't take much to flood the upper levels with warmth, different than when they are in the 30s. The cold air drain from the N to NE only help at the surface until the circulation begins to wrap up and pull out. The meso models probably start to see the differences in a wsw, sw, or even ssw directions and how strong they are as we get closer. Which makes a difference for us down here and is probably why we are seeing the flip happen sooner, less snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: I understand the main idea behind a SWFE, I'm talking down here along the shoreline and even most of CT...If you look at the wind directions at different levels. Any winds with a ssw component that pull from anybody of water ie. sound/ocean (water temps are upper 40s to near 50 south of Long Island) Doesn't take much to flood the upper levels with warmth, different than when they are in the 30s. The cold air drain from the N to NE only help at the surface until the circulation begins to wrap up and pull out. The meso models probably start to see the differences in a wsw, sw, or even ssw directions and how strong they are as we get closer. Which makes a difference for us down here and is probably why we are seeing the flip happen sooner, less snow.... Aren’t you in DXR? You’re interior SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3-5” of snow to sleet ending as a bit of plain rain. final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR has really cut back over last few runs. Interesting. There will be weenie hand wringing late into the night watching the downstream radar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Pinging here on the UES in NYC... nice to post in these threads again after 5 winters in Texas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Aren’t you in DXR? You’re interior SW CT a few miles south of exit 11 off of 84....roughly 450 ft elevation. I have just noticed since moving up here that this location switches earlier than modeled, but the surface almost always lags by a few hours on most models. I get a bit of a cold air feed from the Housatonic depending on the surface winds, you can always see it on the Weatherunderground temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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